John1122

Still pouring down here. The major creek near the house is the 2nd highest I've ever seen it. In an area that's normally around 3 feet deep it's currently around 16 feet deep based on it's height on an old railroad piling that sits in the middle of it. The railroad piling is normally about 12-14 feet out of the water, the water is currently around a foot below the top. A few years ago the creek got high enough to leave a log sitting on top of the piling.

I have now crossed 15 inches of rain this month. Over half of that has fallen in the last few days.

Saw that Tri-Cities set the record today for rain for the month. Already significantly over with more to come.

Norris Dam reporting record breaking inflow into the lake of 66,000 cubic feet per second (500,000 gallons per second). They are currently releasing 14,000 CFS and the lake is at summer full pool and rising rapidly, expected to rise 6 feet in the next 36 hours.

MRX is forecasting 2 more inches tonight for me. The hi-res short term models are having epic struggles with this system. Way under doing precip amounts and even initializing incorrectly with precip placement and intensity. The long range globals and the lower res NAM products seem to be doing the best.

Pretty impressive state wide totals. I'm at 12.39 as of right now.

It's just pouring cats and dogs out there right now, the fire hose is aimed right up into my back yard and down across southern Middle Tennessee. I live very near the divide, where the runoff either flows into the Tennessee river, or the Cumberland River. Two creeks behind my house flow into the Cumberland eventually and a three more meet just a few hundred yards away and they form a larger one that eventually drains into the Tennessee. Looking at the HRRR the flow from Southern Middle up the Plateau looks to continue for the next 18 hours almost unabated. Even with that said, it didn't initialize very well, it didn't show my area getting rain right now but I'm getting pounded. The 06z RGEM really brings the heavy stuff. The NAM 3K is the lightest, but I'll go ahead and declare it wrong immediately. I've had as almost as much rain since 1am when it initialized as it shows falling here for the next 60 hours. It only shows .6 or .7 here during that entire span. I'm getting training 35-40 dbz for the last hour and a half. That's about .35 or so inches of rain per hour.

Crossing 3 inches for the current event as we speak. Pounding down with occasional thunder. About a week ago the Euro showed 24 hours of thunder sitting right over us and I was skeptical, it's basically been correct.

Lots of thunder with the rain here. Had some trees blown across roads this morning. Soaked ground plus wind gusts in the storms did their damage. Amazingly heavy drops here today. Like big summer showers. Except it's cold.

This was the 4th or 5th time since December.

Lots of thunder here and flooding is pretty bad but nothing severe. I've had about as many days of thunder this winter as I have had frozen falling now.

Saw a met from another forum saying that the ENSO state and a few other factors are beginning to look better for severe in the Plains this spring but not so much for the TN Valley/Southeast. I can live without severe here personally but can see why people like to track/chase storms. Not much we can do to prevent weather of any kind but we can learn more about it.

It's never easy here. For whatever reason this area is one of the very tougest to put together a winter storm out of the Gulf of Mexico. They used to be our primary source of snow but these days WAA eats them up badly. Thats why snow averages have been cut in half over the last 30 years, especially south of 40. Knoxville had a 14 inch snow average in the 1951-1980 period. It's down to 6 or so from 1981-2010. The perfect storm features over the top blocking with a good cold source and a potent low. If you have marginal cold or the top you have to hope the low is weaker. The current event we are tracking would have a better shot for success if this were after December 20th or so. The deeper into winter the colder our source.

The local Christmas parade is Saturday evening around 6 but there will be lots of float and parade prep from 3-6 as well. I'm hoping we can avoid the severe during that time frame if we can't avoid the rain.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0249.1 Try this Jax, similar subject matter.

I'd guess temp numbers across the entire region would be similar as far as Nino winters. Moderate to weak both show a higher chance of below normal vs above normal than Strong/Neutral winters. Looks like with last week's update the NCEP is predicting something in the 1 degree above normal range. For comparisons sake, the 2009-10 Nino was +1.5 and the 2015-16 monster was +2.6. Ranges appear to be + 0-.5 = neutral. .5-1 = weak. 1-1.6 = moderate. 1.7-2 .1 = strong. Above 2.2 = very strong.

If we can keep it moderate to weak, that will bode much better for winter, especially early winter. Looks like a decent bet that it will land in that range.

Wide spread downed trees and power outages here. Power is still out in portions of the county. Rained 1.75 inches and I'd guess peak winds at 60-70mph.

Extremely heavy t-storm passing my area as we speak. Winds are probably gusting to 60mph, I'd estimate the rainfall at 3+ inches per hour at this rate. Looks like a bow echo on radar.

Just had a very high wind/heavy rain storm roll through. Winds justified the severe warning. Sideways sheets like you'd see in a hurricane, was hard to hold the car in the road from the wind.

Tornado warned cell in Lincoln/Casey Co in SE Kentucky. The storm will approach the I-75 corridor over the next hour.

The SPC reasoning for the moderate risk area. It's crazy that there's an excessive heat warning right where the storms are getting fired up in Arkansas and West Tennessee. Memphis is supposed to have a HI around 115 today. I'm not sure I remember areas having excessive heat warnings and enhanced/moderate risk outlooks for severe at the same time.

The only tornado in my area in recent times was a July f3. Gonna be keeping an eye out for this one.

10-11 was part two of the epic return to winter after the crapfest of the 2007-2009. As to Jeff's point, I think the 30 year average in Chattanooga was around 8 inches prior to 2000. I know it was over 12 inches for Knoxville then too.

Just looked, it is now warned. These things are moving almost ruler straight west to east. Rare to not see that SW to NE movement to them in this area.