John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Misses most of the board to the SE with basically less than 1 inch for anyone North of 40/West of 75.
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There comes the UKIE with pain for mby and most of the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURO follows with something similar.
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The GFS was back to a nice hit in the timeframe Carvers noted above. 3-6 inches from Nashville east basically, 1-2 along the southern end of the eastern valley, and out west.
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.1 to .2 QPF can be a big difference in snow totals, as we all know.
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For the system that just passed the Euro had the follow totals at 00z Sunday. Knox .9 at the airport area. Actual total 1.09 Tri .66 actual .87 Chatt 1.02 actual 1.22 MBY 1.07 actual 1.8 Oak Ridge 1.05 actual 1.43
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We seem to be sitting in as good a spot as we can be for a storm that starts in 72 hours for our forum area. Also, virtually all gulf systems seem to verify with a larger precip footprint than modeled and with more QPF.
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How is the NBM looking? That will entirely dictate the forecast/watches/warnings that are released.
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It's been in the flat camp for days but with a precip field that keeps growing north. I've went from .3 to .5 qpf on it since yesterday. It's heaviest snow axis is similar to the GFS.
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It was really bringing the QPF with it. Most other models have slid SE today but the RGEM/Canadian haven't. The Euro AI was already there where the others are heading.
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I'm curious because it usually just expands on the RGEM by a bit. I think the RGEM was set to put out double digit totals for some parts of the area.
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I find when models show unprecedented events at range, they almost always don't happen. Dallas would have broken seasonal snowfall records in a 7 day span based on runs a few days ago. Same when it's showing accumulating snow in central Florida.
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4 inches + for the entire valley footprint that run. Did trend south a slight bit, I hope that doesn't keep happening over the next 72 hours.
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The RGEM had sleet in the Southeastern areas but it was bringing it big time to the region as it ended, more than the NAM or ICON at 84. The ICON looks less good for the western areas and was down a little overall for everyone. Granted, it was probably the most aggressive with snow totals at 6z.
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It's been snowing here since noonish and I've yet to see mby have a single radar return. Earlier it was like the snow was magically appearing in Union and Anderson County down stream from here.
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I live on the edge, waiting on the rug to get pulled. I've never gotten over the Euro showing me getting 30 inches of snow 24 hours out, only to lose it last minute and I got like 1.5 inches.
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Not quite the beast the others are, but similar to it's AI brother.
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Still getting steady nickels and dimes. The NAM 3k had me getting 1.5 inches but I didn't believe it.
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UKIE was slower but solid. Feels like the Euro is lurking to nuke our near perfect modeling night.
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Has some downsloping in NE Tennessee but that's at times over done. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it's hard to avoid with certain low tracks.
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I'm not sure. He'll probably be on again in a few minutes. He showed three tracks. Just inside the gulf coast was all freezing rain for east Tennessee. Just off the gulf coast was all freezing rain for East Tennessee. But the storm moving over Orlando on his 3rd track he said would allow snow. Then he switched over to the model they use, it had the L over Mobile and depicted snow down to Northern Miss, Alabama and Georgia.
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Just had about ten minutes of the heaviest snow of the whole backside.
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You're not kidding. At 18z it was actually in the middle between the Euro and GFS with how it handled the 500mb energy.
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T.V. mets can really struggle with this stuff. The WVLT forecaster just was on, he said for Knoxville to get snow, the storm track would have to go from the Central gulf to Orlando.
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GFS Ai from 12z. Very good 850 temps and surface temps upper 20s to lower 30s for the forum area.
