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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Each model seems to have their day or their bust. Right now the GGEM, RGEM, and GFS are in the same camp. If one were lining up a model hall of fame, those probably wouldn't all be included. That said, the OHX afd does a good job of explaining what each model shows and why their are different possibilities on the table in the area. Not read MRX yet but am about to.
  2. John1122
    RGEM and GFS hit big, NAM lesser amounts for reasons mentioned in AFD.
  3. John1122
    OHX disco is basically, several factors suggest heavy snow possible, several factors suggest less snow possible, we're not sure what is going to happen, so we're going down the middle.
  4. John1122
    Looks like the RGEM pops a low that works through upstate South Carolina. MRX mentions 1-3 for elevated areas. Unsure in other areas, especially south of 40.
  5. John1122
    Euro backed off a bit from 12z, maintains generally 1-4 over most of the Valley region with 2.5ish amounts being fairly common.
  6. John1122
    I would be very confident with this much model agreement before the flaming burns from the last two years. If this was showing up on models along the gulf coast or mid west I'd say take it to the bank from this close in, but our area seems incredibly prone to model busts when snow is involved.
  7. John1122
    Pivatol weather has it. It runs out to 39 hours at 3z, 9z, 15z and 21z. Only 21 hours otherwise. It looks faster with the transition to frozen. Eyeballing, it's probably 50-75 miles east with the frozen line vs the NAM during the same timeframe.
  8. John1122
    The 39 hour rap is running. Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well.
  9. John1122
    Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley.
  10. John1122
    That's some pretty heavy snow showing up!
  11. John1122
    Hi-Res GFS was a little larger with snow coverage than the 18z run. Its filled the Nashville heat island from .8 to 2 inches in the last 12 hours of runs. Also expanded the snow more in the Eastern areas south of 40 vs earlier runs.
  12. John1122
    Saw that Robert (WX South) was feeling pretty confident in a few inches coming down fast in the forum region. Mentioned that most of the accumulation would be on grass/decks etc. But seems confident rain will change to heavy snow from Arkansas/Mississippi into Kentucky and Virgina.
  13. John1122
    Clown map for it. Using my standard 33 percent reduction, this would still be a nice event for most areas of the valley region.
  14. John1122
    Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama.
  15. John1122
    Normally the NAM will start to correct its wonky stuff within 36-48 hours of the event. Hi-res backed off about 10-20 percent on totals as well.
  16. John1122
    At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground. Not much middle ground with this one.
  17. John1122
    That 18z GFS was its biggest run to date. Really increased totals for Arkansas and North Miss into West Tenn vs 12z.
  18. John1122
    Went ahead and started a thread for it. If nothing else it can be a future "how much do the models suck, even close in" thread.
  19. John1122
    Hi res NAM, not as bullish, especially over the mid and western valley. Still snowing far east at 60.
  20. John1122
    NAM is still churning. Odd note, in SWCC in an area of around 3000-3500 feet it manages a snowhole.
  21. John1122
    We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates. Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley. WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell. Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start.
  22. John1122
    MRX latest disco, less surface cooling but also less 800mb warm nose. Says that cold will have a hard time getting into the valley from the Plateau, but expects a change from rain to snow rather than any mixed precip for any length of time. Still going with only impacts at elevation NE/SWVA. As a note, MRX has made a top 10 snow events list on it's page for Tri/Knox/Chatt. I appreciate the effort, even though it's laughably wrong in many cases. I think it has my area in the Nov 1952 event with something like 3 inches. For most of my young life prior to the blizzard of 1993, I'd heard of that event as being the king of snow events, described as well over the knees and over bumpers on cars by a multitude of adults. Neither the Feb 1996 event or the dynamic cooling monster of 1998 are mentioned at Tri. Even though snow depth at Tri goes from 0 to 13 inches from 1-31 to 2-2. It lists 7 snowfalls of 13 inches or less in the top 10. I would have sworn the 1998 event put down 16-24 inches in that area as well. It's a good 10 inches off for a lot of areas for the 93 blizzard as well.
  23. John1122
    The Euro is a nice event from Memphis to Sevier County and basically everyone 60-100 miles north and south of 40. Not elevation driven particularly. Some of the better totals show up in the high spots, but also nice totals show up around the Tennessee/Miss border areas with some 3 inch dollops.
  24. John1122
    The NAM is namming us all again for the most part with wide spready heavy post frontal snow. The Hi-Res looks like it would follow as well, it's nailing the western valley with heavy snow at the end of it's run with the rain/snow transition approaching Nashville at 60 and snow pouring in Memphis and Clarksville. MRX is all out though, mentions anafrontal moisture but says wintry precip won't result in any impacts outside of the Smokies
  25. John1122
    I'm pretty happy with it being in the air during December but really would love to see some of the more optimistic scenarios play out like the Canadian. As you mentioned, a few years ago at this range if the Euro put that out OHX would probably be talking winter weather advisories in their am update. Now you have to see the white of the flake practically before you can make a call like that.
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