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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Pouring down quarter/half dollars. 30 degrees.
  2. John1122
    Snow has returned here, nickel sized flakes. Not seen any mixing/sleet issues since the initial changeover. It's either been snow or mist. Leaves got white from the initial band just after the changeover.
  3. John1122
    Not sure if the NAM is handling the mid-level dry air that is affecting precip rates that well or now. I'm hoping it's right though.
  4. John1122
    Snow down to flurries here but a good band appears aimed this way coming straight up the plateau.
  5. John1122
    There definitely appears to be a large amount of precip upstream in the western valley. Not sure how much of that is getting to the ground or not, especially in lower elevations there.
  6. John1122
    Current afternoon updated forecast. Rain. High near 54. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Current conditions, 32 snow.
  7. John1122
    The Euro pulled that last year too on the OP. It had me in a 36 inch bullseye days before the storm. I believe I got less than 2 inches.
  8. John1122
    Quarter to half dollar sized flakes here. The sleet transition is about 30 minutes. Everything is white.
  9. John1122
    33 and snow/sleet here. Schools dismissed. Way earlier change than forecast.
  10. John1122
    MRX has a terrible track record with issuing winter products. Their logic on this one is questionable imo. They apparently don't understand that moderate snow falling in mid December with such a low sun angle, and after dark, will stick to roads. Especially since the forecast low for my area is 23 degrees. Now it might not snow very much and that's one thing, but the seem confident that actual snow depth will exceed winter weather advisory criteria in the area. It has been modestly warm for 36 hours, but we had sub-freezing lows every day of December except the 1st and the 9th. If the snow comes as modeled and as forecast and hits around 4-9 pm, I-75 will get messy and dangerous here, especially since it gets to about 2500 feet near here.
  11. John1122
    The front is roughly from Louisville, Ky to Jackson, Tn. The freezing weather is about 75 miles behind the front. 54 in Louisville and 29 in Southern Illinois just west of Louisville.
  12. John1122
    05z RAP hits Northern middle down to Nashville with around 1 inch. Northern Plateau from Jamestown to Cumberland Gap with 2-3 stretching into Kentucky. Still some snow happening in eastern areas at that point. Not much going on south of 40 on the RAP, especially eastern areas. But it's out there at the edge if its range still. That said the last few runs have been focusing on SEKy and the Northern areas for accumulation. It's a much better model out to about hour 6 to 8 vs 15+
  13. John1122
    The Euro stepped up significantly from 12z and is closer to the GFS/Canadian models.
  14. John1122
    Ratio'd Canadian. Nothing to do now but sit back and see how right/wrong they all were.
  15. John1122
    It snows my column as below freezing from the top down tomorrow evening but says best guess precip type is rain. Confusing.
  16. John1122
    The NAM just books the precip through. It's ended before the MRX changeover time starts for most of us,
  17. John1122
    Timing to frozen is similar on the 3k but the heavy snowfall isn't quite so heavy on it. Same narrow band of snow, but 1-3 inches instead of 2-5 inches on the 12k.
  18. John1122
    Looks like two waves of snow on the NAM, the early one nails Mid Valley area with a snowblitz and give BNA 4 inches of snowfall. Southern Arkansas seems to get the benefit of both waves and close to 8 inches falls there.
  19. John1122
    The changeover on the NAM is way faster than forecast timing. My area changes to frozen by 2-3 pm on the NAM, but MRX forecast changeover here is 10pm.
  20. John1122
    Looks like the NAM is going to NAM a lot of us again. Heavy snow streak from Arkansas through Memphis up through Nashville by around 1pm tomorrow.
  21. John1122
    After looking, the Rockies funnel cold air rapidly down the plains but as it spreads further from the Rockies it slows down. That's why you can see 50 degree temp drops in an hour there. Was reading about a place in Wisconsin that had mid 70s and tornadoes one morning in November, and the rescue efforts for the tornado victims took place in a blizzard.
  22. John1122
    The cold can rush down the plains and even into West Tennessee pretty fast. But the system to the south will slow it down. I'm honestly not sure if 110mph is fast for an air mass in the plains or not.
  23. John1122
    I assume it may slow a bit as it makes it's way south but it does look like its moving quickly on that gif.
  24. John1122
    The 21z 39 hour RAP is pretty healthy for Northern Mississippi and then Plateau, north of 40 and SWVA. Not alot going on middle and west Tennessee on it. Granted, that's at the far edge of it's range to say the least except for the part happening in Mississippi.
  25. John1122
    MRX posted above, similar to other WFO, model differences are resulting in big differences in precip type and amount that can fall as frozen. MRX must think the Plateau is going to massively hold up the cold. OHX southern Plateau counties are forecast to be at 33 by 5 pm with frozen. 30 miles east MRX has the transition at 2-4 am.
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