John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The ICON is a little more beefy in Arkansas than it was at 18z.
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The FV3 was really wound up at hr 60. Snow was reaching East TN and it was at 1004mb south of Louisiana.
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I think so with that path and a deepening storm. It increased QPF in northern Kentucky by .2/.3 in some spots through 78, but only by around .1 in Tennessee.
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I actually still think that's a very low QPF output for the area with a deepening low on that track. It vastly improved the precip shield into Kentucky, tossing qpf up into Ohio when it was dry at 18z over northern Kentucky, but it didn't increase QPF as much in Tennessee.
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So far the NAM is warmer with a bit more QPF.
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NAM is amped up. May be mixing issues for some here. Definitely for the gulf coast states.
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The NAM looks like it's going to be a pretty good run.
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It's better/sharper at 500 than the 18z op was but not as good as the GFS was for instance.
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The 18z Euro was late with some northern stream energy. The other models drop it in across Oklahoma, the Euro dropped it in across Tennessee. The system comes out less organized/strong on the Euro and the 850 low is weak.
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0z HRRR looks pretty similar to where the 18z GFS was at the same time.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tennessee is playing like a turd in the punch bowl Euro run. -
I believe basically 5-7 in the Mid-State and 3 to 5 in West Tennessee as well.
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8 to 12 inches Plateau and up the Central Valley of East TN. Far east areas had downsloping issues. When the storm was 42 hours from hitting Memphis the Euro got the track correct but the qpf was about 60 percent of what fell. The RGEM was probably best on it if I recall correctly, and the ICON was close too.
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This was the Euro last January while every model was showing a big hitter in Tennessee. The map here is through 126, but the storm was already in NAM/RGEM range at this time. The Euro suddenly went south and basically whiffed. It spent several cycles trying to recover and eventually did with the path but never with the QPF.
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The Euro struggled last year with the snow event until 24 hours out. It was weaker and south before finally trending back. It never did catch up qpf wise and missed the 8 to 10+ totals.
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Perfect angle to avoid the downsloping in the NE areas. Not sure why the GFS has to do that to McMinn Co to break up the pinks
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My brother in Hixson has a considerably different weather life than I do. Always way hotter in summer, and usually around 8-10 degrees warmer in winter. It's 24 here right now and 32 at his house.
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The RGEM was lesser by a bit than 12z. It pretty much has the same amount of QPF as 12z but with 6 more hours of precip.
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RGEM just won't lose that 725mb warm layer along the southern border that causes the sleet. The Canadian started it. It's only on their models that shows it now.
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Probably most concerning for far eastern areas is the dreaded downslope warming they mentioned. That would possibly see some freezing rain or sleet in those areas, as they said the surface remains below freezing. However they did say they expect all snow for everyone.
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Euro AI is .4 minimum for the entire forecast area, that's in southern Kentucky. .45 northern areas along the border. .5 along I-40, .6+ south of 40. Ratios probably 12/13:1 north, 11-1 along 40, 10-1 south.
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NAM with 4-6 across the area at the end and still snowing across almost the entire region.
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It's actually still snowing here as well. That's the sign of a powerful winter storm, 24-36 hours of light snow in it's wake, often not seen by models. Last year was the same.
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The EURO looks pretty close to the NBM (slightly more snow than the NBM).
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Euro is looking better than the UKIE so far at least.
