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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The GEFS was bone chilling and the cold is getting into the day 10 window instead of hanging out at 14-16.
  2. John1122
    The New Years and beyond time frame looks like it's setting up very nicely if the EPS is to be believed. It's slid towards the look the GEFS was showing a few days ago, but starting maybe 3 days later than the GEFS. Crazy that the EPS flipped to the GEFS look right after the GEFS flipped to the prior Euro warm look.
  3. John1122
    It's been colder than I expected the last several days, maybe I hadn't been paying attention with all the talk of coming warmth and was expecting it to be warm. Had lows in the upper 10s and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s several days in a row now.
  4. John1122
    I found the AAM disco from SD and Webb interesting. Per them, it looks like we will flip to a favorable phase around Christmas per the Euro. It's unfavorable phase apparently caused the big SE death ridges in late season the last two years. Lots of good disco in that thread there and in here too. You guys should be scientists!
  5. John1122
    EPS is still looking like we end the warmth around New Years and there's beginning to be some EPS ens support for something wintry in the 12-31 to 1-3 timeframe.
  6. John1122
    GFS pops a +PNA in the long range. Sets up major cross polar flow with cold air deep into the south and snow in the deep south. Has shown this a few runs in a row. Will see if it reels it in.
  7. John1122
    I'd as soon get the warm started and over with. Every year we have 2-5 weeks on and off with warm/cold it seems. Though last year was more warm and more warm. I can't complain much so far. More snow already than the last two seasons and snow in the air again today. If the EPO goes negative as forecast that should open up more possiblites. It'd be nice to get the PNA in decent shape for true winter too. I always hold out hope for January 15th to February 15th as that is our best winter time frame. It takes the least amount of things going exactly right as we ever manage during that time frame. Even the best winters we've ever had in the area had at least 3 or 4 weeks of AN in winter.
  8. John1122
    Snow showers clipping through here. A few decent rates.
  9. John1122
    Not sure about other areas, but we had 4 inches of snow just a couple of days after that severe weather event in late February 1993.
  10. John1122
    Heavy rain and frequent thunder here. Very windy earlier, but it's died down some in the storm.
  11. John1122
    Thundering frequently. I expect flakes go fly soon.
  12. John1122
    We will see how it goes, but the week of Christmas to New Years looks like a -EPO/-NAO with the PNA heading from negative towards neutral. The AO looks to go modestly negative too. If we can reel all those in, the warmth should end towards week 2.5/3.
  13. John1122
    The model depicts rain overhead imby with a surface temp of 37 on the 22nd timeframe, but the sounding shows this.
  14. John1122
    This is why their official snowfall data is so inaccurate. The 911 center isn't even located in Jacksboro and it's surrounded by all pavement. There probably was only an inch on the pavement.
  15. John1122
    Several of them are ridiculous. It lists Jacksboro with 1 inch, I've saw a dozen pictures from Jacksboro with tape measures in the snow, it had 2.75-3.00 inches. I'd guess Wartburg had more than 1 inch too.
  16. John1122
    Long range GFS op is all over the place at 500 from run to run.
  17. John1122
    December 11th and I've passed last year for snow. 6.7 inches already.
  18. John1122
    Never mind, there are no returns over me right now. The band got ragged. Looks like another one trying to generate on the western edge of the Plateau but I figure I'm done on this one. No complaints from me.
  19. John1122
    Returns over me are no longer reaching the ground. Usually no returns show up and its snowing. The dry air is here.
  20. John1122
    About to wind down here. Hate that it somehow stayed out of the Mid State and Western areas. Glad that Alabama broke the snow curse.
  21. John1122
    Good thing secondary roads are clear.
  22. John1122
    The temp dropping will also affect flake size. My heaviest snow of the day was after I went from half dollars to nickels. Per Huntsville NWS they say that band will give Florence an inch. Its aimed at the Plateau and points east if it can overcome the drying.
  23. John1122
    They've decided to go down with the ship at this point. I have met winter storm warning criteria at this point with nothing.
  24. John1122
    Not sure of that snow in NW Alabama is hitting the ground or if it's going to be able to roll into Tennessee or not.
  25. John1122
    Last year at this time my 15 inch Euro snow had faded to 1.5 inches of disappointment. This makes up for it a little.
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