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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    After seeing the reality that Tennessee basketball is awful, I need something positive model wise to help me through the winter.
  2. John1122
    Gonna hope the EPS isn't another headfake and it starts a trend. We've spoke often though, of how often the headfake happens when a pattern is locked in.
  3. John1122
    I'd never seen anything like it, I parked it in about 8 or 9 inches of slushy snow. When it went below 0 it just lifted it. A local business I frequent didn't get it's parking lot cleared and it turned into a skating rink, there was about 5-6 inches of compacted ice that driving across and sun basically polished. They finally got someone with a bobcat to come break it up because it wasn't melting in that cold wave. If we could get the EPO ridge 500-800 miles East we'd be in big business.
  4. John1122
    At one point the snow had a dump of rain into it, then more snow then below 0 cold, one of my vehicles actually had it's wheels lifted off the ground when the ice expanded below it and basically jacked it up.
  5. John1122
    2010 was of course quite snowy and persistently cold. The MJO went low amplitude from 3 to 7 from January 1st to the 21. January 1st - 13th only had 1 day above freezing. We had a warm up when it went into 5-6 and 7. Then after about a week in 7, we cooled back down for the first two weeks of February where it hung out in 7-8. By looking it takes several days for it to warm up once it gets to 4-5 then it's warm in 5-6 and it takes several days to cool down when it's in 7. If it's in the COD it seems to tend cooler than normal even if it's in the COD near 5-6.
  6. John1122
    The MJO was low amplitude 7 into 8 from late January into February 10th 2015, it went very low across 7 on the 12th and into the COD at 6 by the 16th. It stayed in the middle of the COD but slightly towards the 4/5 side through the 23rd and sat in the COD through early March. The EPO drove everything in February 2015. We had a +AO and +NAO and had a major ice/snow event with 10s below 0 in the area based solely on the Pacific ridging that just sucked cold from Siberia and flung it our way.
  7. John1122
    Also, there are papers about how heavily the EPS and weeklies rely on the MJO for their forecasts. If its handling the MJO incorrectly it likely has major long range consequences.
  8. John1122
    From what I understand we get our coolest temps when the mjo is low amplitude or even in the COD of each phase.
  9. John1122
    EPS doesn't look awful later in the run. At some point it will likely start reeling things in, seems like there's always a 6-10 day head fake with models ending patterns. The cold in the northern Hempisphere is over North America. There's intermittent ridging in the SW. There's ridging that looks like it is heading into Alaska. The SE ridge is blown away. I used to like a cold Alaska because it often ended up sliding down into North Dakota/Minnesota and then here.
  10. John1122
    Apparently I was wrong about MJO lag times, or just read a paper wrong about them. We will probably then have a brief cooling period as the MJO passes 8-1-2 then warm back up when it leaves. The paper I read suggested 12-14 day lag times for MJO effects to propagate downstream but I guess I read it wrong or it's wrong.
  11. John1122
    The big +AO spike predicted also doesn't spell the end of the world. The last time it got that high was I believe late December 2015. January and part of February 2016 rocked for parts of the area. It was the last even remotely decent winter we've had.
  12. John1122
    It would be great. 8-1-2 would likely see winter return 5-15 days after the mjo hit those areas. The EPS/weeklies will likely be cold if it sees the mjo in 8-1-2.
  13. John1122
    Yes, that's what happened here a week later. Power line snapping cement with 2 inch per hour rates for 8+ hours. They literally record 3 to 5 inches for 4 straight days at Tri on the official record. That's a big part of why the extremely low snowfall averages are off in our region. Extremely poor quality control. You can't have a remotely accurate 30 year average when you're missing the biggest events of the timeframe. After looking it adds up to 17.6 falling at Tri airport.
  14. John1122
    It's not right and the maps that accompany them are honestly laughable. As I mentioned, Tri airport goes from 0 snow depth to 13 inches depth on February 2nd-3rd 1996 but has M for snowfall so they don't include it. February 1998, no clue how they missed it. I don't remember it happening how its recorded at Tri, but amounts between 3.4-5.7 inches are recorded over a 4 day span, with something like 18.2 inches falling. But I guess they aren't counting it as one event? No idea honestly. I thought it was a dynamic cooling event that all fell in a shorter time. The Plateau had one a week later with 10-25 inches.
  15. John1122
    Models are all struggling, as usual. They are throwing out superwarmth and then backing off as verification time approaches. I like some of the looks we are seeing, especially for further western areas of the valley. This side of the Apps looks better than the east side for sure.
  16. John1122
    GFS goes BN at 132 and except for about 48 hours, stays BN til 384. Some well BN stuff in there. So it's reeling it in, just no idea if it's right or not.
  17. John1122
    Can very much get onboard with this look just after New Years on the Euro. Polar Vortex is split and and west best -NAO is popping up.
  18. John1122
    The conflicting MJO likely accounts for a lot of the model flipping around. I read recently that a large part of the EPS was based on the MJO prediction. With the MJO showing conflicting phases it's likely keying on one or the other and rolling from there.
  19. John1122
    Euro flipped from 5-15 AN valley wide for New Years Eve morning to 3-6 BN for the same time frame from the 12z to 00z run. A step towards the GEFS bringing in cooler air. Euro is a warm bias model too.
  20. John1122
    GEFS goes BN at hour 174 and stays there all but about 48 hours all the way til day 16. Much better look over Alaska at 500mb on there. Just have to see if it's a head fake or not. But modeling in general has looked much better over Alaska the last few runs vs a couple days ago when the EPS and GEFS sat the polar vortex over interior Alaska and just left it there smashing the attempted ridging in the EPO region.
  21. John1122
    Most mets I've seen keep saying the active STJ will not allow for a SE ridge. We might still be warm but it will be due to Pacific air in the pattern. The PV not being in Alaska is a huge improvement, it tends to get stuck there when it goes there and it quashes any -EP0 and also floods more pacific air into the pattern.
  22. John1122
    Larry Cosgove today said he liked snow chances from the Rockies to the Apps through the first 3 weeks of January. Said southern tracks that cut the Carolinas would be possible, didn't like I-95 corridor in a broad Rockies to Apps trough set up. Mentioned there's not going to be blistering cold, but cold enough air to work for a lot of areas west of the Apps. Sounds like a good set up for us, especially the mid and western Valley.
  23. John1122
    12z EPS at day 10 looks even better than the OP. Polar vortex into north central Canada rather than Alaska. We don't want the pv to get into Alaska at all.
  24. John1122
    The 12z Euro looks better at day 10 than the 00z did. 00z had the PV deep into Alaska which turned the flow into the lower 48 off the Pacific. Well north of Alaska on the 12z. Looks way more workable here. Blocking in Eastern Canada, blocking on the West Coast. Flow coming more off Russia and across the pole straight into the lower 48.
  25. John1122
    Temperatures are near normal now through 2/3rds of the month, mainly on the strength of two days that were +15-20 in the area. Without those I'm probably -1.5-2.
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