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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    If we could get that EPO ridging 600 miles east and get it to orient S to N and get roided up like it does, we would be having below 0 weather.
  2. John1122
    It looks like a pattern that's extremely changeable, no sustained torch or cold through mid month. It will be AN but because the AN days will be very much AN.
  3. John1122
    It was going well and the orientation of the high tilts and a trough sprouts under it in the Pac NW. That piece of the PV is dropping towards a good spot though.
  4. John1122
    It looks like it's working towards a -AO with over the top blocking and it's pushing the vortex south into Canada.
  5. John1122
    If you look at the 500mb 48hr forecast trend maps on the GEFS they show lowering heights over the middle of the country to our area and rising heights generally along the west coast. So while there still may be 500mb anomalies in the places that we don't want them, the trend is for them to be less extreme on subsequent runs as they come closer to reality.
  6. John1122
    I will end the year with 81.37 inches of rain, breaking the record set last year, with around 90 years of observations within a 4 mile area here.
  7. John1122
    The GEFS mean through 240 is around .75-1 inch in Jonesboro/Tupelo/Memphis/Chattanooga/Huntsville. 2 inches in Nashville/Clarksville/Cookeville/Knoxvile. 3 inches Crossville/Bristol/Tazewell. 4+ in SWVA. As noted by the individual members it's not a case of 5 monster storms and a bunch of blanks, it's more a lot of members showing around 1-4 inches that gives the mean. That mean almost doubles through 384 along areas north of 40 and especially border areas in Kentucky/VA/Northern Tn. So we might have the warmth to deal with now and will probably see it come back strong a few times in the next few weeks, but we should get the cold and we could have some chances to see white ground over that time frame. The Euro cold shot towards the end of it's run is the kind that would likely result in snow showers hanging around all day as temps struggle to get out of the mid 20s.
  8. John1122
    GEFS still saying we should see something in the next 6-10 days with every member having at least something somewhere in the Valley region.
  9. John1122
    The Euro has two shots of cold and a clipper that puts some snow in the air for a lot of us and snow on the ground for some of us. It's downright frigid at the end of its run.
  10. John1122
    If the 1954 connection continues into 1955 we may be in luck. January started warm that year. Another 70 in Knoxville in the first week of the month. The second half turned cold and there was a big snow event in the 3rd week of the month. February was up and down with another decent event during the month.
  11. John1122
    Thundered here a bit ago. GFS has snow showers in about 5 days.
  12. John1122
    That's impressive. I only made it to 66 today. Which is still extremely warm, but 76 is crazy.
  13. John1122
    Yes, it runs out several weeks like the Euro weeklies. It's resolution is 38km for long leads and 27km like the old GFS in the 10-16 day range. The lower the km the higher the resolution. The Euro for instance, is 9km through 240 hours. The old GFS used to be 27km beyond 240, which is why it switched to 12 hour panels. The new GFS is 13km to the end of the run, which is why it now has 6 hour panels all the way to 384.
  14. John1122
    It's not very skilled for things like that. It's more a broad pattern, longer range model.
  15. John1122
    Some big dogs in there on the GEFS through the time frame the Euro/GGEM was showing the event.
  16. John1122
    06Z GFS a little faster and a little further south than the Euro/GGEM. Rounds the base of the Apps instead of running west of them. Thumps the Plateau and gives a smaller but still very decent event to other areas along and north of 40. Several cold days in this time frame, lows in the single digits and high in the mid to upper 10s in the deeper snowpack areas.
  17. John1122
    Euro was close to the Canadian. Smashed NE Arkansas and NWTn through Kentucky. Icy for Northern Middle.
  18. John1122
    The Ensemble mean will spit out weird looks sometimes when individual members are in different camps.
  19. John1122
    Not saying the GFS is right but its been verifying better than the GEFS lately, the Euro is still beating both. But even it's only verifying at 35 percent at day 10 at 500mb.
  20. John1122
    It was transient on the run, but the +PNA and -EPO team up around 180 and the Alaska ridge shoots into the Arctic and pops a -AO. The GFS tries to go back to a western trough at the end but the Ridge is building back towards Alaska again at that point.
  21. John1122
    I don't have a lot of trust in the models right now, but they are finally starting to reel in the cold. it's now well inside day 10 for the first cold shot.
  22. John1122
    Major Arctic blocking on the GFS, Canada loaded with cold and a lobe of the polar vortex headed for the Great Lakes. Looks like we are in for repeating very cold shots if its correct.
  23. John1122
    Frigid with upslope/clipper prospects around day 7 to 10 on the GFS.
  24. John1122
    The EPO, when positioned right, is probably the best driver for us valley wide.
  25. John1122
    I saw some big hitters on the EPS Ens. A few valley wide smashers.
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