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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    GEFS snow mean is ticking up. Probably some of this is ice/sleet.
  2. John1122
    Pretty happy to see the Euro climbing inside 10 days with this. Also good news on the MJO on both the Euro and GEFS. If we can get the pattern to flip in the Jan 15th to February 15th window we should be in business. Big winter events keep showing up in parts of the forum area, usually in these situations the western areas see it first.
  3. John1122
    If we can get through the next 3 days and keep the extended look and reel it in, I'll feel much better about a decent window for wintry weather in the January 17th-30th timeframe.
  4. John1122
    I'm at 33 currently.
  5. John1122
    All day every day on running with a favorable Pacific. It controls everything up stream for us most of the time. If we want cold air it's not easy to come by unless the Pacific is cooperating somewhere. I've seen a bad Pacific blow a -NAO/-AO but I've rarely seen a favorable Pacific spoiled by the lack of those drivers. We had repeat snow and ice storms along with below 0 cold valley wide just a few years ago with nothing but the EPO in our favor.
  6. John1122
    The GEFS is currently the outlier among all modeling. So we have that on our side for now.
  7. John1122
    Not a particularly great model but supposedly better in winter than other season, the CFS turns us to winter and then has 3 snow events in the January 22-30th timeframe.
  8. John1122
    If we can get that look to maintain and roll forward in time we might be on to something. Until it does, it's hard to believe it or the GFS.
  9. John1122
    SEKy, and SWVa look pretty decent for a nice, quick hitter on virtually all modeling. The Euro joins the models that are showing rain on the maps for parts of northern Tennessee but skew-ts show snow soundings. Almost all the models showing the system have 850s at freezing or well below, 925s (2400ft) at freezing or maybe 33, and surface temps in the mid 30s. They all say best guess precip type as snow as well.
  10. John1122
    0z NAM suite is showing snow more in Kentucky but if you look at the soundings the 850s are well below freezing and the precip type on the soundings say snow even in places like Union/Grainger Co where the model is showing rain. Which I believe it is showing because surface temps are mid 30s. So any decent rates will likely fall as snow instead of rain if the NAM is to be believed.
  11. John1122
    The trends of the last 24 hours have all gotten better with that potential system Tuesday with that 3k NAM topping the stack with 2-4 inchs all the way from just East of Clarksville to SW VA. The GFS is confined more to the east but it's snow shield has expanded westward as well. The RAP/RGEM have SE Kentucky in the bullseye. Hopefully todays trends that have put more of us in the potential game continue into future runs.
  12. John1122
    That means the cold is shallow under the ridge. Sure enough you, if you look at the skew-t at 312 the surface is approximately the same temperature as the 500mb level of the column. Look at 120 by comparison, 500mb is 20+ Celsius colder than the surface. Usually higher heights means warmer but sometimes with the shallow, dense cold slips under the higher heights and gives cold surface temps. I just really hope it's right but the vortex in the Pac NW remains ugly.
  13. John1122
    Heavy snow here now. Quarter sized wet flakes. Vis 1/2 mile or less. Classic convection based snow shower.
  14. John1122
    Had snow/graupel shower. Temp is 36 degrees and falling pretty fast. Was 52 a few hours ago.
  15. John1122
    00z GFS has no Scandinavian ridge. Transient cold shots, mostly potential record highs. Hopefully we can get out of the ditch in the next two weeks. If not, it's probably time to completely re-evaluate winter in this part of the world and assume we now have the climate of Central Gulf coast states 20 years ago. Doesn't mean we can get cold or snow any more, just means it will not be a given that we will get snow in winter.
  16. John1122
    2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high.
  17. John1122
    That was one of the worst/warmest runs I've seen of any model. Keep in mind the GFS has a cold bias and has been verifying about 6 or 7 degrees too cool, even still no one in the forum gets below freezing from Jan 10th-19th. We may have wide spread mid-winter 70s though.
  18. John1122
    00z GFS.
  19. John1122
    Now at 1.28 after moderate/heavy rain for the past few hours.
  20. John1122
    .55 has fallen here so far. I can't imagine we manage a 3rd straight year of much much AN precip.
  21. John1122
    The last time that basically the entire sub forum had winter weather was February 2015. On February 16th-18th almost the entire forum had at least an inch of snow and mixed precip too. It was also close on February 25th the same year. Large snow events for the entire sub forum are rare. You almost never see snow in both Chattanooga and Dyersburg because the events that drive snow for both places are usually different.
  22. John1122
    Last year we went from 7-2 during the warmth and the Pacific didn't even blink. Last year was the queen mother of bad winters.
  23. John1122
    Our best hope is that this is a 6 week type pattern. If it is we will see it start breaking down in about 2 weeks. Which would be great for us because January 15th - February 15th is the prime winter timeframe here when temps are at their lowest and snowfall is at it's most likely. But last year we never got out of a similar 500mb pattern, even though other drivers are different this year, we may not get out of this one. If this one doesn't change even the Smokies would struggle to see even close to normal snow during it. Right now it's probably a coin flip on whether we get a shift. Most other times I'd say we would, but in the current ecosystem we tend to fall into every way possible to stay warm and wet.
  24. John1122
    It is the opposite of good. You want a +PNA that's rising. We can't have any kind of sustained cold or winter weather with a bad Pacific. At most we can get a lucky shot but even that's uncommon. I haven't looked but I'd bet 85+ percent of our cold/snow events feature either s positive or neutral PNA.
  25. John1122
    Euro holds onto a chance of snow showers around sunday. Probably 1 inch or less most places. After that similar up and down right to the GFS through day 10.
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