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John1122

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  1. John1122
    I wish it was hour 6! I've seen storms look like that for 10 runs in a row on the Euro only to have them crash in the last 72 hours. The only take away is that we will have an active storm track in the climo peak period for snow, when we need the least help with ultra cold anomalies to see it happen. That's not been common in winter since around 2011.
  2. John1122
    Well, if we see another run as good as that GFS run, I'll be surprised. Widespread 5-15 inches basically across Arkansas, the Northern half of Miss, Georgia and all the way to Upstate SC.
  3. John1122
    GFS about to embrace the multiple storms outlook. Ice storm under 240 for Arkansas and West Tennessee and parts of the rest of the valley, major Miler A coming at 300 or so it appears.
  4. John1122
    Who know if the Euro is right, but I'll take that all day in late January. We can be AN and get snow over a good bit of the valley during late January. My normal low bottoms out at around 21 degrees around January 25th-30th. It can be 10 AN and still snow here.
  5. John1122
    Long ways out still, but the storm 10 days out on the 06z GFS was a much better look for East Tennessee. Verbatim that run was best for the Plateau and Mtns. But with that track up the South Carolina coast and inside the cape with temps in the 30s, its workable for more of us than it showed. It also shows that in January the nighttime low can be 6 or 8 degrees AN and it can still snow as the normal low is low to mid 20s in parts of the area this time of year. Before that storm some northern stream energy will come through some part of the area. That run gave some flakes to the western areas from it.
  6. John1122
    GEFS is cold but basically lacks the warm extreme we see on the GFS Op. First half of the run is absolutely frigid once we pass the new few warm days.
  7. John1122
    Very cold run of the GFS there. Of course it warms up enough to rain in the middle of the cold. Rather than fleeting cold, the pattern is base cold with a fleeting warm shot. It was close to glory for us late run. Buries Central Kentucky and north and we still squeeze out 1-3 inches with some 4 inch dollops. Very long way to go on specific storm threats though.
  8. John1122
    The Euro tries to loop the MJO into Phase 6 again at the end of day 14. The Australian model has it collapsing into the COD through February. GAWX indicated that Atlanta averaged -4 when the MJO was in the COD during Jan/Feb vs -1 if it was outside the COD in favorable phases. Normally if Atlanta is -4, we're likely to be cold as well. That said, it could warm again, though the EPS was only warm for a couple of days before going back to a more BN look at the end. Either way, a massive waffle for the Euro and not a good look at all for it's verification one way or the other.
  9. John1122
    Very heavy rain and more thunder than during the severe event Saturday when I didn't hear thunder here at all.
  10. John1122
    2018 all over again.
  11. John1122
    The GFS goes bananas with western ridging and looks like it's trying to get a -NAO going. Just need that massive western Ridge about five hundred miles west and those heights near Greenland about 500 miles east and north.
  12. John1122
    It's the college of DuPage weather lab page. #19 is the nearly impossible snowpocalypse on there.
  13. John1122
    Really cold Euro OP and it looks like it could've evolved into a reload if it went beyond 240. Aleutian low looked like it might pump an EPO ridge if the progression had continued.
  14. John1122
    The GEFS mean was very beefy, but skewed some by two monster storms, one that would make the bizzard of 1993 a distant memory. Something like 25-30 inches over Northern Alabama and East/MiddleTennessee with 16-20 over west Tennessee. I doubt such a storm is even possible under the best conditions.
  15. John1122
    It's looking like the roller coaster for a while instead of all down hill after the massive uphill we climbed. The GFS finally is popping a mega -EPO and pushing cold our way at 360 after a couple of days of warming after the potential stormy period. The EPO ridge is just slightly off in it's orientation to do great for us. If we can get there, Siberia is blisteringly cold and the air would crash over the pole and down our way. Huge IF as always and late in the run too. Regardless of what happens day 13+, should get cold by day 6 and potentially stormy as the cold air retreats.
  16. John1122
    South and east areas win that run. NE Georgia gets bullseyed with 10+ fantasy inches. South of 40 wins pretty big too, as does east of I-81.
  17. John1122
    GFS fires up a +PNA driven miller A that brings snow or ice to a good bit of the Valley region.
  18. John1122
    The pattern shift is within 6 days on the models now. It may simply shift to seasonal weather, but season is good enough to get snow here in the Jan 15-February 15th timeframe. Ending the death march in the Pacific is priority 1. Unfortunately we are in model madness now. No OPs agree very well with their ENS and none of them agree with each other either, other than that the really bad ditch we've been in, we are about to jump out of.
  19. John1122
    Who knows. It changes every run. Right now we need to get the cold and its probably going to take at least one more cutter to get there. Once the pattern change comes into its own hopefully the potential of the pattern shown on the ensembles bears fruit. That 6z run did end on one heck of a cliffhanger. if it went to 400 we'd either have seen a fantasy foot across the valley or a painful cutter.
  20. John1122
    The Euro Ensemble isn't quite what the GEFS is but its not terribly far off on snowfall output. The Euro OP popped a big East based -NAO. Not the best look for here compared to a west based NAO but better for the western Valley than the Eastern. The midwest does best in east based NAO events. Cutters or Apps runners or Bs are more favored. The Euro has a Rockies ridge that manages to keep the entire SE cold. Normally the Apps and East have AN temps with the east based NAO.
  21. John1122
    GEFS still has some good potential for a lot of us. 1.5 inch mean all the way back to Memphis and 2 in Northern Alabama is pretty nice.
  22. John1122
    GFS keeps the pattern change but doesn't do us any favors regarding winter precip really. Gets cold, warms up and rains, gets cold. I believe Dec 1983 was the ultimate for that. We would get below 0 cold, warm up and rain, then go below 0 again.
  23. John1122
    That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night. There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison.
  24. John1122
    Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not. The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee.
  25. John1122
    I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee.
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