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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Not surprisingly, the Euro was much warmer vs the 12z run at D9/10. Canada is cold but there's no penetration into the upper midwest that run so our cold source is 10+ degrees warmer than 12z today so we basically get down to near normal. The Euro shows a -10 BN over Nashville the morning of the 7th. But it shows a 2m temp of 24 there during that frame. I believe Nashville's normal low is 28 around this time frame. So the -10 may be a little bit overdone on the anomaly map. But even that is brief, afternoon temp hit the 40s. The western ridge is south of the PNA region and the heights are lower in Alaska which once again just means the air comes off the Pacific instead of across the pole. GEFS is awful. Western trough/SE ridge. GFS op will have spring flowers in bloom late in the run. I'm pretty sure if that takes place into mid February, winter is basically done but we will see if we can get lucky.
  2. John1122
    Trends have gotten worse for the event 48-60 hours from now. Another decent track but elevation snow system. SWVa might get an inch or two. Looking tough for the rest of us below 2500 feet. January is going to close out as one of the worst winter months in the entire history of the sub forum for those who like cold and snow. Who knew it could be that much worse than the putrid 2019.
  3. John1122
    Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  4. John1122
    Euro gives a few flakes with the mid week system, mainly in elevated areas. By D10 a storm cut the Apps and gives some snow the northern part of the western forum areas. Big East based NAO at day 10 with some minor Alaska and West coast ridging tries to come around day 9 that appears to be beaten back quickly by another low in the Alaska area. Hopefully the EPS carries into something favorable. An East based NAO with heights East of Greenland tend to promote cutters and miller Bs that bring snow to places like Indianapolis, St Louis, Columbus Ohio etc while not getting a lot done here.
  5. John1122
    GFS is a little better, doesn't get it done for us but NW trend definitely on the precip shield. Still low level warm issues. Keep having these early spring type looks where even good tracks rain low and snow above 4000ft.
  6. John1122
    Nope, no luck for the rest of us. NW areas and Western NC are the winners that run. Really strange, TBH, 850s are 0 or less into Georgia, the 540 line is south of Birmingham and Atlanta but surface temps are in the 40s overnight and most of us rain.
  7. John1122
    West Tennessee gets a nice backside thumping there. Looks like we night horseshoe with snow in western NC and West Tennessee but rain mostly for the rest of us. Hope the backside works it's way across the state but looks like it might lift NE instead.
  8. John1122
    Looks like the frozen line dips into the Northern Plateau by 60. 18z Nash to Knox was seeing snow. This run Bowling Green to Tazewell is more the area. Fine details but this is a border line cold event. It arriving overnight into very early morning is one thing in the favor of the areas from your Plateau west.
  9. John1122
    Yep. Through 57 hrs the frozen line is a good 80 miles north of the 18z frozen line. Typical luck.
  10. John1122
    NAM coming in stronger but warmer for the midweek system. Won't be surprised if it shows all rain south of Kentucky this time.
  11. John1122
    Day 10 on the Euro, deep trough in the SW, eastern ridge. Mostly AN to well AN. No snow outside the NC high elevation border areas. Just can't seem to reel anything in at this point. Winter of 1993 was awful like this. A trace of snow all winter until February 25th-26th when we got 4 inches. Then of course the blizzard hit and made it one of the most memorable winters in history from the Plateau eastward. But most winters that go this poorly never recover in any significantly wintery way.
  12. John1122
    GFS has lost its mind late run. Appears to have a major coastal low coming out of the gulf and a very strong cutter in Arkansas at the same time. Never even seen that from a model before, let alone reality.
  13. John1122
    Played pretty well considering. Had Azabuike not been allowed to commit about 40 fouls we might have even won the game.
  14. John1122
    Tennessee is giving is giving us the d9-11 -EPO look right now.
  15. John1122
    If we don't actually start reeling something into the d7 or less range soon, just have to assume its another headfake. Meanwhile I'm forecast to get to 28 tonight. 31 I think Wednesday night and not be below freezing otherwise the rest of the week. My normals this time of year are 42-21. Those were old normals though. It's like the earth tilted and we all live 100-150 miles south of where we did a few years ago.
  16. John1122
    Winters have become like this Kansas game. It goes okay early and you get excited. Then it just inevitably grinds you down.
  17. John1122
    Mostly bleh runs at 0z. GFS tosses some 1 in a 1000 stuff at 300+. We have about 35-40 days left of true winter chances. If it doesn't improve this is easily the least snowy 4 year stretch in the last 90 years at least imby and most of the snow I've seen has been in spring.
  18. John1122
    It's those big very wet flakes that splatter the windshield.
  19. John1122
    Currently getting a rn/snow mix. 38 degrees.
  20. John1122
    There's a few good members for everyone. Parts of the forum have at least some snow on every member. There's even the obligatory Knox County snow hole on Member 13.
  21. John1122
    The GEFS has, not surprisingly, a strong mean, especially over the eastern 2/3rds of the region. 3+ inch line dips into Northern Alabama.
  22. John1122
    Several MJO forecasts are starting to see 8-1-2-3 in the COD as possibilities. GaWx pointed out that Atlanta was an average of 3 degrees colder when the MJO went through these phases in the COD vs at higher amplitude. The Australian model that runs through March 1st sends the MJO into the COD on the 8-1-2-3 area and stops it just before 4 and loops it back into 3. The GEFS goes 1-2-3 in the COD. When February 2015 turned brutally cold, especially for the 2nd half of the month through March 7th or so, the MJO was in the COD in those areas or in the very center.
  23. John1122
    It's very likely we don't see anything close to it again. It's one of the few paths towards snow for any of us with the marginal cold. Normally that storm in January or February would be golden. But the models are throwing out these storms and the results are what you'd normally seen in March or even April with great tracks but cold rain and elevated snow.
  24. John1122
    I just noticed how especially cruel to Knox County specifically that it is. That said, I would have to think we would do a little better outside elevated areas with that kind of monster taking that path East of the Apps.
  25. John1122
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