John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Be like me and just stay awake 24/7 during snow season.
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ICON increased totals by around an inch forum wide basically vs 0z.
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0z Euro Ai increased qpf by about .1 most areas.
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Took a step north in the Western 2/3rds of the forum area. Hopefully that's the start of a trend back towards a better northern edge of the precip field.
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NAM is coming in more robust than the 12z suite.
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BNA joins MEG with a winter storm watch across it's entire CWA for 4-7 inches, with isolated 8 inch amounts.
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Didn't expect it at all, but it's coming a steady light snow shower.
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The EPS also had more QPF/better snow mean. We're about to the end of their use though.
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Yes, around .10 qpf more for most that run vs 18z.
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Canadian suite is slower like the others were. Every model is now about the same with QPF at 0z, euro pending. The hope is that they don't get any worse. It would still be a nice 3 to 5 inches for most of us.
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Canadian finally ran and joined the less qpf camp. RGEM is running as well. I expect it will too.
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These come north 95 percent of the time, and usually it's to our detriment. Hopefully it manages to in this case too, but for the better. If things are getting worse at this time tomorrow I'll have my towel in hand, ready to toss it in.
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It wasn't great for mby but it nearly missed the whole forum at 12z.
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The UKIE is light years better than it's 12z disaster that was the first shot fired in the bad runs today.
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The GEFS joins the camp of ensembles with more qpf than the op. The snow mean is as good or better than 18z for some areas.
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I'm hoping to salvage 2-3 inches here. I think 40 and south will be okay for 3 to 5+
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GFS down about .10 across the board. Hopefully things stabilize. It makes no sense for a potent, deepening low to track along the gulf and for it to not produce more precip. If it was 35 degrees with bad 850s that same low strength/track would produce 1.5 inches of qpf.
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It's rare to see ensembles with more QPF than the op but the Euro was and the ICON ensembles are pretty similar in QPF. Usually just by their nature of having to incorporate a few misses, they are drier than their ops.
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Everything is moving faster too. It's arriving earlier and getting out of dodge.
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I expect the GFS to be weaker and south. It did the same for a run last year when the Euro put out the super weak solution I posted earlier.
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The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else.
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The RGEM must be busted.
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Unfortunately, the ICON is weakening as it heads east. Good bit less QPF vs 18z over this way.
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I can't remember if it or the late Rufus was supposed to replace the NAM.
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A bit better in West Tennessee at 66 vs 72 at 18z.
