John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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It was one of our most severe winters. I had a day with a below zero high and some negative teens for lows.
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That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982.
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In addition to that crazy NAM run last year, the other models in the NAM nest didn't agree with it. Obviously it was badly wrong.
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This is from last January when the NAM was about 48-60 hours out and it suddenly decided to have East Tennessee in the 50s in a dry slot after it made a jarring NW jump.
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I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times.
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I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger.
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All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues.
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I still go out walking when it's snowing/snowy. Light snow still falling here. Snow has fallen Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and today this week and I should get at least 3 more inches Friday and Saturday. That's an old school winter week.
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That's Pacific domination. That's why Savannah is in the snow bullseye. I saw the other day that the PDO was finally indicating a possible flip. That may usher in an entirely new winter experience for many people under 30.
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Heading home, several areas with quarters falling through town but they were small areas. Maybe 2500 feet of big flakes and flurries on the other side. A little evaporation but no melting here. High was 25. It's been in the 20s for about 54 hours now and may not get out of them before early next week.
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Nice pass by the ICON. 0 mixing in Tennessee that I saw.
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Verbatim, Knoxville is right on the edge that run. Sevier county is freezing rain, Loudon sleet.
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Man, that Euro run was banging the drum again. It's what this pattern was initially advertised as. Below 0 cold, a snow event, then suppression with snow in Savannah and Jacksonville.
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The NAM had slightly lower snow totals in the East 40 and north with about .05 less qpf. Just in the small run to run variation window.
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NAM is often on the amped side of things. I hope the rain/Mix in the far SE areas are not on any other models.
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Always late when snow is possible. 4:21 is my guess.
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Nice hit this time on the GFS. Anafrontal system with most of the moisture behind it. We've scored a few times that way lately. It was a staple in the 70s/80s. Doesn't work for Chattanooga, but most from the mid-state East pick up 3-6 inches that run. It's been moving forward in time. Also, as noted, the Euro is frigid late run, we'll see if that changes. Last night D15 was highs in the 10s and lows near or just below 0.
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I actually do sleep a few hours a day, but when snow is in the air I don't feel sleepy!
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The Euro came in dry/south. It's the lowest end model for us currently. As I talked about yesterday, it did this last year in a similar set up and at best was about 60-65 percent of what actually fell.
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The UKIE increased QPF a decent amount vs 00z. Hopefully the increasing qpf trend holds.
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The Canadian suite has had it particularly rough.
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Still snowing here as well. No model showed anything last night and today, the NAM 3K was giving some of us 1/2 to 1 inch or so outside the mountains for tonight.
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The RGEM was pretty good here with that. Much better than the NAM which had no frozen here. I got .2 ice and I think the rgem had .18 here 24 hrs out.
