John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Oddly, my point forecast just says "cloudy" tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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Is the OHX uptick from the NBM? WPC? Looks sort of like a RAP/HRRR/GFS weighted blend.
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Hopefully @AMZ8990 has some obs for us soon. He's usually the first in the forum with them.
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28/10 today. Currently 25.2 at 6pm. I've been below freezing since Monday at just after noon, the high for the week was 38 Monday morning. 3/4th inch of snow on the ground with a thin layer of sleet and ice from the zr below that.
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In honor of Jeff's finger art.
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Rap bringing heavier totals into Mississippi. Maintains pretty well. The HRRR at 0z may be similar.
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The NAM semi folded to the HRRR/RAP. It went from a Plateau runner to an Apps runner.
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It's still going to be a major outlier.
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NAM coming in somewhat cooler/less WAA craziness.
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The HRRR being colder raised Chattanooga from 3.9 to 4.6 that run.
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It was still a big time run of the HRRR (at range, use caution) but it was a little lower with QPF.
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The HRRR looks like it's going to slip the low just on the NC side of the Apps.
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HRRR looks flatter/less QPF will be likely this run, but its a bit colder and just about a county tier further south with sleet so far.
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The Canadian/Euro/UKIE all have .4ish or less along and north of 40 in the East. The middle camp has .5 to .8ish. The NAM has over an inch.
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Euro remains in the colder but very flat/low QPF in the East camp, the Canadian models are in this camp. The NAM is the amped camp. The HRRR/GFS/RAP/ICON and a few NAM nest products are in the middle camps between those two.
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Perhaps the NAM can't get the Plateau cutter out of it's system until PowellVolz arrives.
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I'll also add this, the wpc noted there would be areas where heavy banding would set up that just can't be seen by models at range.
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Hi-Res models can really overemphasize terrain features at times. Their resolution is extremely high and sees them all clearly and will really lean into them. They show huge downsloping off Cross Mountain here frequently and I've never seen it verify to the extent hi-res models do.
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The NAM is a Plateau runner. It's builds a stronger high by a smidgen and cuts the lp up the Plateau. I knew the HRRR would be big when the RAP was.
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06z Euro was basically a carbon copy of 0z. Its generally 3 to 6 inches for most of us. More to the west as it continues to lose punch as it heads east. It remains on the low side qpf wise. Lower that the AI version and the EPS.
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Currently 13 degrees and still snowing. Picked up just under 1/2 inch overnight.
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It's basically everything vs the NAM currently.
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The 9z 51hr RAP will factor into the 12z 48 hour HRRR.
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The RAP looks just like the GFS. It pops the low in Alabama but it goes up the east side of the Apps and we get dumped on.
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Gonna see what the RAP throws out. I believe it's the seed for the HRRR, who honestly wasn't too far off the GFS except for the bit of sleet.
