John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Looks like the dry Euro runs are going to verify here. Ironically it got onboard with 4+ inches here at the last minute. I'll be shocked if I get over 2. The American models, barring a huge surprise, are going to be miserable failures.
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I knew the bust was coming, my WSW just changed to 1-4 inches and yet another dry slot is developing to my SW.
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Finally back to quarter sized flakes here.
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It's rare to see it snowing in literally every direction from me. It looks like some development down towards Holston may start to fill in my area soon.
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I'm in a strange dry slot as well and I'm going to count myself lucky if I get to half what's forecast. Never seen it before with a slider.
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Feels like I'm maybe going to bust really low here, that snowhole is lined up sw of me and just keeps refusing to fill. Good luck to the others of you getting nailed, hopefully there's no mixing issues!
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The snowhole was strange because it stayed thickly cloudy and still snowed moderately with 1/2 mile vis, but the flakes as noted by Holston, Shocker and Shawn, were just very tiny.
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@Holston_River_Rambler are you in the snow hole that has developed?
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I didn't really even have a flurry period, it was not snowing one minute and 3 minutes later vis was around 1/2 mile.
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Nickels and dimes.
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Moderate snow here, 25 degrees.
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Conditional symmetrical instability. They are large bands that produce heavy streaks of snow.
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I've been waiting on your obs. Now the countdown begins for me.
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It's so odd in these situations. All week if a mouse farted it started snowing. Now we have to watch virga for several hours from a juicy gulf system.
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Some folks like a storm specific observation thread as the other thread is for forecasts and the timing is often very different for the arrival of precip in the forum area.
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Seemed to have bottomed out at 19.6 and have went up to 21 currently with high clouds moving in.
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I shouldn't say no qpf. But significantly less than other models. .2 to .3 vs .5 to .9 on other products. The Euro just shreds the storm as it moves East.
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The Euro is still in the storm is dying, no QPF for anyone east of Nashville. It's either going to score a major coup and we're gonna be heartbroken or it's having one of its worst performances in a while. I don't recall ever seeing models this far apart when a storm was underway.
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It seeds the HRRR I believe. But they both can struggle past 12 hours.
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RAP slightly lowered QPF that run and warm nosed more than it had before. More sleet, lower snow totals vs it's last longer run. I wouldn't be surprised if the 06z HRRR follows suit.
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The American models are marching in a line for sure. Not sure if they're correct but they're in a cluster.
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GFS loves the southern border folks. Putting this here to check back next time we have a system like this. I always go back and look at how models handled things from certain ranges.
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21 degrees, dp 16. Hard to beat frozen ground before a system. For some reason this has reminded me of Feb 1996 all week. Ice/frozen way south. A week of cold air leading into the storm. That one ended up becoming a legendary system, especially for the central valley of East Tennessee. But was a severe winter storm forum wide.
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I still think it's over emphasizing the down slope. The hi-res models try too hard at times. That would be even worse than you did last year.
