John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Lots of winter storms flying around. Hopefully we cash in another time or two before the end of the month. The Canadian has a better pass than the ice storm look it had been giving.
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In that case, you got 7 inches! That's why snowboards with wipe offs work best. Eliminates a lot of compacting and issues of that type.
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They are way off here, which is normal. I've noticed when they do these maps, if someone sends in a measurement half way through an event, they still use it and put it on maps.
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The GFS since it's upgrade a few years ago is great at sniffing out storms. It just has trouble with the finer details once they get close. Seems like all the American modeling does. The RGEM regularly outperforms the NAM suite, even the 3k.
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That's more what the GFS tried to do, but the Euro, correctly, kept showing that phase missing.
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Pretty excited with what the Euro AI is cooking up in that time frame. It was nearly perfect with this past storm from D8 or D9. It had no wild run to run swings, and pretty much got the south of 40 snow correct and the north of 40 relatively lower QPF but slightly better ratios correct.
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I'd lean to the Euro AI. It was pretty consistent and basically exact in it's totals/temps. The Euro at 12 hours ended up rightish.
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NW flow snow showers around this morning. Currently nickels floating around out there.
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This is hard to beat in mid to late Jan. Jan 15th-Feb 15th is the heart of winter here. The most extreme cold and most snow we get, historically, arrives in that window. Some of that AN precip will be rain. But that angle of cold pointed at us from Eastern Montana to Minnesota basically what we see with big winter events and bitter cold here. That will keep us in the game for what I posted above.
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The GFS says let's run it back. Still snowing in NE Tn/SW VA here.
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Seems to be over unless that small band near Nashville makes it here. Ended up with 4 inches. Very powdery. No sleet, no freezing rain. Roughly an inch over 7 hours, then 3 inches in 4 hours to close it out.
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Just got to 3 inches. It's snowed for just over 8 hours to get there. (Most of it fell in the last hour and twenty minutes.)
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We are now what I'd officially call ripping. Quarter sized flakes and a lot of them. Just crossed 2 inches.
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Still all snow but it's just not as heavy as it looks like it should be based on radar.
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It's a worst of both worlds situation re models. The Euro was right with low QPF for me but the hi-res/NAM nest was right about the warm nose for the folks to the south and the NAM was right about the epic dry slot. The Euro kept everything cold. All in all, it's snow map will end up pretty close most likely. Fortunately the Euro's correct call about snow totals really boosted our western and southern valley folks.
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You're likely to get some freezing rain then it will turn back to snow.
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Looks like maybe some banding working along the Plateau now.
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Steady quarters and nickels falling here. No mixing issues but not terribly heavy rates, about 1/2 inch an hour probably.
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It's all snow for now. Tiny dime sized flakes but a lot of them. My temperature actually went down some. I had made it to 27 but it's back to 26 now.
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Not always! I will say that it's snowed more this week from random NW energy bits than it has from this system so far.
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Looks like the precip is maybe pivoting in a way that the mid-valley dry slot won't quite get here. I've already had two today, I can live without round 3.
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Chattanooga area to Knoxville was the place to be for this one in the east. The heavy precip oriented perfectly and you avoided the big dry slot that rolled up out of Alabama along the Plateau above Crossville.
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I will also give credit to that wonky NAM run a few days ago that dry-slotted me. Kudos NAM.
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It looks like the dry slot that was headed my way is filling in now.
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That would be me, if it verifies, but I'm going to guess it will not.
