John1122

The ICON was pretty good across the whole area almost with the Sunday system. As Jeff noted, Chattanooga not so much, but every where else it would be a nice event. We often see snow come with this level or arctic airmass. My high was modeled at 16 on Monday at 12z on some modeling.

Bouncycorn, the met from Southern weather has the model blender that he can run each one through for a snow map. This is his 18z AI map with what he feels would be the proper ratios based in sounding.

Euro AI keeps moving NW with its precip shield. Basically 2-4 inches for East Tennessee at 18z.

Crazily enough, there have been snows of that magnitude in Miss and Louisiana. They are rare but have happened.

If we pulled that one off and February was a torch, I'd not complain (much).

Temps are 16 to 22ish when at the height of the snow here on the Euro.

Euro is a big hitter. Still don't believe the 1050 but it bananas and keeps the cut from happening. 1043 in the NE, 1050 over Missouri.

The Euro is going to be close to what the GFS showed. I think the HP is too strong on all models currently, 1050 shows up often but rarely verifies over Missouri.

The Euro is trying to start the Saturday system with some frozen precip in the VA border areas and in SWVa.

The Euro, as usual at this range, is completely unimpressed and back to it's dry as the desert look. The Euro cold snap is shorter too, but potent.

GFS came NW significantly and crushed the Carolinas that run. Almost back to that wild Euro run a few days ago. Something building in Texas behind it. GFS so the usual warnings apply.

I actually found some Tri data from January 1940. It's -10 but with some missing data temps. Knoxville was 24 and 5 and 15 and -1 on the missing data days.

Using the Knoxville station to extrapolate, Tri would have been brutally cold several years in the 1880s-1920ish. Also in the early 40s.

I'm actually surprised the front is going to pass completely dry. Usually these 25+ degree drops squeeze out some snow. It's 40 here now and I'm supposed to get down to 12 tonight.

Several would be before Tri record keeping became an official thing. It could be a top 5 winter during it's record keeping era, which begain in, I believe, 1948.

There are a good number double digit below normal January's and all of them featured more snow than this one has so far, as well as multiple shots of cold spaced out over the month. This one may be headed that way.

The ICON was in the Canadian camp basically, a nice snow event developing over the forum area in some very cold air.

Canadian hold the front up again and we have mid-state snow, eastern ice/sleet and by 240, -5 to -10 degree lows. The GFS blows the front through and it's much weaker. 20 degrees warmer than the Canadian. It pops a storm over Cuba and runs it across Miami with a lesser than the Euro winter storm for Northern Florida. We need a happy middle of those two. If I had to bet my life, it pick the Canadian, as we see hung up fronts along the apps like that often. We don't see the old Cuba to Miami winter storms very often. Especially not snow and zr producers over Florida.

Memphis was the warmest spot in the state during that time frame with a high of 8 and low of -9. All the other stations I can find a report from were in the -10s. Nashville was the coldest of the big cities at -13.

These are the MJO plots from the Euro. It is where convection is located. In winter we want to see it on the left side to maybe 3. We want it out of 4, 5 or 6 especially.

Griteater looked for similar 500mb patterns to the one advertised next week, and the closest he found was February 7-9th 1967. There was likely a stalled boundary in the area, that was laid out nearly west to east rather than the usual sharper SW to NE direction, as it was much colder along the Northern Plateau and SE Kentucky vs other areas. The Northern Plateau and SE Kentucky got 6 to 8 inches of snow on the 7th. Along 40 and into NE Tennessee got 3-5 inches and southern areas around Chattanooga got 2 inches. Here, Middlesboro, Tazewell, Oneida, and Corbin were well below 0 on the 8th and 9th. The areas along 40 and 81 were in the upper teens to near 20.

The models are coming back towards a very blocked Pac, the Euro reaches into Siberia and throws that air at us.

Didn't really think of that. Think next storm I'll switch to that method, makes sense now that I think about it. NWS recommends cleaning the board after each measurement and just adding it up. I usually measure every 3 hours in heavy events. To get snow depth, use a second board and don't clean it.

As long as it doesn't trend into a cutter! Pretty good spot to be in right now with the inevitable NW trend. This also may be a record year for modeling showing major, record breaking winter storms deep into Florida.