John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Canada gone wild on that run.
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The GFS is just firing it in there for the double event set up.
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This is two systems, a light one (heavy in the mountains) around D6/7 and the other around D9/10.
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The Euro AI has the same footprint but much drier. I've noticed the Euro Ai last year was always the driest model, and the AI GFS is also drier than the OP models.
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The Euro has a slider/miller A going inside D10. Nice hit for Eastern areas and Western NC. The mountains get buried with 12+ 3-6 or so Eastern Highland rim to the foothills.
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If that low track was 100 miles south on the GFS, that heavy snow would have been 100 miles south too. It was a west to east gulf low but about 75-100 miles north of our best tracks.
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The GEFS through 240 has almost the same exact snow footprint as the Canadian, but naturally a bit lighter since it's an ensemble.
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Not likely but the potential of the pattern. Lots of ice from the Plateau back to SW Tennessee as well under that snow.
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GFS with just a massive winter storm that run but around day 10-12. Unlikely as always but it's nice to see the pattern being recognized by models as one that produces. It's close to 2 feet in NW Tennessee and lots of ice too across the forum area. The Canadian sends clippers for East Tennessee, SE KY and SW Va in the usual spots, mainly north of 40.
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Some precip fell down south but it was rain, the track of the clipper was why there was little precip there though. Clippers usually see the bulk of their moisture on the N side of the LP track. It tracked right across 40 that run and there was very little precip on the southern side of the system.
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The Canadian has it too, but less extreme.
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The mother of all clippers.
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Just a wild system on the GFS absolutely pasting north of 40.
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The EPS has a nice pass into Phase 8 by late month. Wintery chances along with it.
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That's ice, their algorithm handles snow poorly. That said, it's a big winter storm East, South and West of us, so I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.
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Euro AI has a couple of systems but we're too warm and the Ohio Valley and Kentucky gets snow.
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It gets better from here.
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The OP GFS gets there as well, around D10.
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GFSAI goes full in Miller A late with temps in the 10s across our area. Around .3 to .5 QPF across our area with those frigid temps. Way out there but the sharp and poleward PNA/EPO ridge does work.
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The ICON has a slow moving bomb cutter than spreads snow over western areas of the forum. First time I've seen that solution. It happens in the 11th/12th time frame.
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I'm not paying much attention to models currently. They're just wildly different run to run, model to model. The 0z GFS is 30+ degrees colder late run than the 0z AIGFS. Recently, the AI was 20-30 degrees colder than the regular GFS. For me, I'm going to see how things look in a week or so to see if the pattern moves forward.
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Mammoth Snowfall Rates are expected to hit 3.3 inches per hour tomorrow at noon. They are expecting up to 4 feet with 100mph wind gusts. They had 11 inches overnight into this morning. As long as it's snowing like that there, we're not going to be having much in the way of winter chances.
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Thanks for the update. I couldn't remember if it was '76 or '77 when I went to type that out.
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Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6.
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I just sits there with the firehose turned on over Arkansas and West Tennessee, up the Ohio River valley pumping in warm air and moisture. Like 3-4 days of heavy rain with zero movement eastward because there's a Bermuda high that would make summer Bermuda high's jealous. Even with a massive west coast ridge, and major blocking over Greenland/Davis Straits, nothing moves at all.
