Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,682

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    We begin February in the ice box per the Euro.
  2. John1122
    Way down the road, but the Euro rolled out a huge winter storm at D 12.
  3. John1122
    The couple of spots in the area where the NAM blossomed some precip Tuesday morning were 20:1 ratios, it dropped a couple of 4 inch dollops.
  4. John1122
    The NAM is trying for us. Granted it's often overamped when it starts getting a system in range. But that would likely have been a big run if it went out to 120.
  5. John1122
    It's the NAM at range but it's much further north initially with the precip vs the GFS/Euro etc with the Tuesday system. By Tuesday at 11am the storm isn't too far off shore of the Gulf Coast and precip is in Mid-Tn.
  6. John1122
    The HRRR randomly dumps 7 inches in a small strip near the central Plateau with the 06z run. The NAM is increasing totals vs it's prior runs, as is the 3k.
  7. John1122
    Euro came west/north from 12z. Has snow on the Tennessee/NC border. Looks like the Canadian but about 100 miles East.
  8. John1122
    The Canadian gets us here by Wednesday morning.
  9. John1122
    Pretty big NW jog from the Canadian there. 1.5 inches around Nashville, rising to 3-6 inches in the eastern forum areas. That's just from the second wave on Tuesday.
  10. John1122
    The Canadian has snow over all of East Tennessee with pt 2 as well. I wonder if it's handling of a stronger system Sunday is what's flavoring how Tuesday unfolds.
  11. John1122
    The Canadian is rock solid in its depiction of Sat night/Sunday once again. It may be wrong, but other models are folding towards it and the RGEM.
  12. John1122
    Currently sitting at 31. The Euro has hinted that frozen precip would fall at the start of this event. I'm sure the temps will shoot up later.
  13. John1122
    MRX just put this out.
  14. John1122
    It should snow most of the night Sunday if there's any moisture at all around still. It will fall from lower levels as the DGZ will be down to probably 3000-4000 feet. Monday morning at 1am the 850 RH is depicted between 85 percent and 100 percent from the Plateau east. 850s are -16c to -19c. (DGZ is -12c to -19c if I recall correctly) the 925 is -14c to around -10c with the colder 925s on the Plateau and the -10s to the east. 925 rh is 80-85 percent. So the snow growth zone will be as low as 925 or about 2500 feet. I suspect there will be small flake pixie dust falling even during the time the models show the precip as over, as it wrings out the lingering lower level moisture in the DGZ. Looking at my sounding on the GFS, it shows me at 8f at 1am Monday, and the green RH line and red temp line are touching at 850. That's why there's usually at least a trace of snow with big Arctic outbreaks. It happened during the Christmas 2022 cold.
  15. John1122
    It was kinda bad with the last event. Way too much QPF imby and I think way too warm down towards Chattanooga.
  16. John1122
    After looking, and it's still the 00z run because it's always behind everyone else, the GFS Graphicast is not far off the Canadian. We get generally .1 to .15 qpf as frozen on it. The 06Z Euro AI is very close to the Graphicast with QPF for Sunday.
  17. John1122
    I see the big system that was set for late week just went poof on the GFS. It's folding to the Canadian on the Tuesday system and now on that system as well. Hopefully everything folds to the Canadian on the Sunday system, but so far none are.
  18. John1122
    RGEM/Canadian for Sunday, Canadian Tuesday, (though the deep south would cease to function for a week or two) and the GFS later in the week. That's not too much to ask for.
  19. John1122
    I will say that last night's euro was equally ludicrous for a similar reason. It showed nearly 7 inches of snow in Tallahassee. That would obliterate all known Florida snow records and almost triple their record snowfall. It's the equivalent of a model dropping 72 inches across our area as far as a climatological outlier.
  20. John1122
    I saw it. Whenever models show record smashing events I usually discount them. I hate to because it's our best hope. It's a phaser with an explosive precip field. The other models don't phase but also don't seem to have a big enough qpf field given the jet dynamics.
  21. John1122
    It's 3rd and 18 and we're on our own 31-yard-line. Hopefully we can pull a miracle. If we don't make it on third, we could still go for it on 4th but it looks like a punting situation right now.
  22. John1122
    May as well do an Arctic Blast thread to cover the week of cold and hits or misses on snow imo. We at least are pretty sure it's going to be cold.
  23. John1122
    The early week storm is creeping north again on the gfs and euro. Not sure if it'll make it here. The gfs did try to have at least some flurries reach the area Tuesday.
  24. John1122
    The GFS has worked back to a huge snow event for the Thursday system. Maybe the SE trend is a thing this year.
  25. John1122
    Pure December 1983 on the Euro/GFS December '83, 25 Degrees November 30th, we warm to the 50s with 2 inches of rain the first three days of Dec, getting up to the 60s before crashing into the 20s with a trace of snow on the 7th. After a few days BN we shoot up AN and rain. we are 45 with 1/2 inch of rain, 2 days later, 28 with a trace of snow. A week later it's 24, we get a trace of snow, but it warms to 49 and rains .85 inches, ends with a trace of snow. We go all the way down to -8 by Christmas eve and Christmas morning with about 1/2 inch of snow. It warms up to 33 by December 27th after a trace of front end snow, it rains 1.4 inches. We finish off with another trace of snow as it ends. We have a couple of days of low 20s and low single digit lows with a trace of snow. We finished the month -6 with over 6 inches of rain and around 1 total inch of snow from snow even with pipe bursting cold. We are looking at rain/cold/rain/cold/rain on the Euro to close the month.
×
×
  • Create New...