John1122

The 18z HRRR tries to bring the clipper in a little further west initially with a band of snow from Scott Co Tn, through to about Maynardville and points east.

This was his quote about it. I could be wrong as you two know much more about it than me.

From what I understand, the ABM one there is the actual verified MJO plot, and that there's a 3 day lag time for it per Gawx. I believe the GFS there is likely a model estimate.

The forecasts are still mostly favorable for it, but they are all starting it a little off where it actually is now by the look of it. Sadly, even with the favorable forecasts we still manage to get warm on models. Not sure if it's a headfake by them or if it's the MPNA from the paper I linked last month, that says 8 isn't cold of the MPNA is negative.

The main thing we can hope for is the shake-up isn't 6+ weeks, and that whatever happens after that, the Pacific is more favorable going forward. The current pattern is the Ohio Valley dream, and the Central Virginia snow globe, while we get stray flakes and glancing dustings. If Pacific had been a little more cooperative we'd have been clippered to 10+ inches by now.

It's just barely into 6, hopefully it's looping back towards 7,8. The beautiful pass through 8-1 the models had could have been great. It made it there (to 6) a few days ago and models started blowtorching the lower 48 around that time. Which is basically phase 6 in a nutshell in winter. Hopefully Canada doesn't get scoured of cold. The snowpack north of us will likely be gone by Christmas if modeling is correct. I'm ready for a reset anyway, I think winter will make a comeback some time in January, unless we go full 1989-90.

The MJO has indeed been in Ph 6 for a few days now. Hopefully it doesn't stay long. I suspect it's behind the massive warm ups we keep seeing modeled. Either way, the forecast looks bleak in the long range again. Not that it has been spectacular for our area really.

Got a dusting of snow, had a couple of decent showers. 31 degrees.

Looks like some decent snow showers moving across SE Kentucky, as with every single event in December, I'm likely too far west unless radar just isn't picking up anything NW of me, but basically SE Kentucky, Claiborne and points East may be in good shape if the Cumberlands don't dry those out.

Snow is falling here currently. Very light. MRX did just put out an SPS that isolated 1 to 2 inch totals are possible. Currently 36 degrees. I was in Knoxville all evening so no idea what may have happened while I was gone. Except strong winds have blown some stuff around.

We needed the Pac jet to help pop the PNA but it's not worked out that way.

The Pacific hates us. It seems to always find a way to screw up everything for us.

The way it looks now, we may be dodging severe weather instead of snow. It'll be wild if we are -5 to -10 for half of December but my snowiest day of the season is November 10th, but that looks to be the case barring a miracle.

Rough looks on modeling again overnight and this morning. Between that and what I'm seeing about January, we may be in for a lot of misery this winter.

Griteater was talking about the MJO, saying that while it's in Phase 8 per RMM, a KW/convection area flares in the Indo/Pacific and causes it to act like it's in Phase 6 through around December 12th-20th, before clearing and returning to a phase 8 look. That's likely the culprit behind the big warm up being modeled.