John1122

All snow here now but not as heavy as Shocker is seeing.

Special Weather Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 TNZ012>018-041-043>047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-171500- Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi- Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell- Washington VA- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 154 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...Light Snow Accumulations Possible Saturday Morning... Periods of light to moderate snow showers will lead to a quick 1 to 2 inches of accumulation in some locations Saturday morning. The most likely locations to receive snow accumulation will be elevations above 2000 feet. Highest mountain peaks could see isolated totals near 3 inches. A dusting up to one inch will be possible in lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Any accumulations of snow are expected to be light. However, driving and walking may be difficult on some untreated roadways and sidewalks. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities. If traveling, slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. $$

It's finally started reaching the ground here, it's now 35 with rain and snow mixed. Crazy how long it took to start reaching the ground here.

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs. The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away. The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us. The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10. The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.

The models that showed this just drying up imby are spot on. Their thermals were off, but the dryness was perfect. It's barely sprinkled here so far. Temp has fallen to 38.

Waa is screaming. It was clear and dropped to 33 just after dark. Now it's 44.

The current forecast of ice box cold, warm up and rain, back to ice box, then warm up and rain, is weather torture for our forum area. For it to happen in December and January is particularly brutal. Especially with a potential second year in a row of "once in 50 years" type snow possible near the Gulf due to the air behind our first rain maker tonight.

Made it all the way down to 9 about an hour ago, but have warmed up to 13 now.

The 18z Euro Ai was a gem. It's usually steady once it locks onto something. Hopefully it stays locked onto that type of evolution.

Several of the NAM Nest members are also bullish for heavier snow in Tennessee. It's either going to suddenly abandon ship tomorrow, score a wild coup, or go down in flames.

It's a QPF issue. It goes from dumping over northern Middle to dying imby, but it bumps back up a little bit east of 75 and down towards Knoxville.

I don't understand the NAM just pasting northern Middle and S Kentucky, then a hole just develops over me and @Kentucky. Someone in another forum mentioned that the precip holes were a known NAM mistake. I hope that's correct. Of course the NAM is on an island anyway with the system so who knows what will happen.

I guess they are wondering why there's so much difference in American vs foreign modeling and can't figure anything else out to do.

We had around 1/2 inch this morning above about 1600 feet, around 8ish. Ended up causing school to be canceled.