John1122

We are -8 for the month, but normally you arrive there by being -16 and then normal over short periods. This has been essentially-7 to -10 each day, so nothing super cold.

To me, it's the shape of the ridge in the West. It's not been sharp S to N oriented so the cold hasn't been pressing south, more West to East. The GFS sharpens the Western Ridge and the cold crashes south.

The GFS is just ridiculously cold and dry as a bone. Shades of December '83 all over again.

The extra oomph in qpf came with the cost of a warming push.

It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.

Mostly sleet with some snow and freezing rain here now. Temp is 32, I doubt we go any lower.

Sleet and snow mixed here in town.

33 with light to moderate snow here. About to head off the mountain for a while. Looks like no precip down that way currently.

Snow is probably an overstatement. More like flake currently, but I've got hope.

34 degrees with a little bit of snow falling.

It looked like Maine or somewhere here in 1996. There was snow piled up to the bottom of stop signs and in mountains in parking lots from Early January until around Valentines Day.

There looks to be some snow moving by to my south right now.

Huge move for the UKIE, it looks about like the 14z RAP. It has been very dry/warm.

The 15z axis is slightly north but bullseyes the Nashville area.

The 14z HRRR was very similar to the RAP.