John1122

Griteater was talking about the MJO, saying that while it's in Phase 8 per RMM, a KW/convection area flares in the Indo/Pacific and causes it to act like it's in Phase 6 through around December 12th-20th, before clearing and returning to a phase 8 look. That's likely the culprit behind the big warm up being modeled.

It snowed here for about 30 minutes around 10 to 10:30 this morning. MJO is active with KW in 6, so the weather is reflecting that on modeling. Not sure what pattern reshuffle we will get, but unless we can get the EPO to move East, and get that death vortex out of the GOA we are going to be watching systems fly by to the north of us. Good news for the NE Kentucky, Va and north. On runs where the ridge in the west sharpens and Western Canada goes from -PNA to +PNA the cold gets unleashed.

Looks like the cold for next weekend is basically up in smoke now. The 00z GFS is now 20 degrees warmer than it was for next weekend than it was last night at 00z. What looked promising somewhat is a dumpster fire for winter chances here into Christmas, if the models are correct. Deep Gulf of Alaska low flooding Pacific air across the lower 48, hostile Pacific, hostile Atlantic. It doesn't get much worse than that run.

We are going to need some kind of shake up to the pattern to see widespread snow. I don't remember seeing many ridges out west that were sprawled out so far west to east vs south to north. That's pretty much killing our chances of having a storm track that works for us. Nothing is going on in the southern stream really, and clippers are shunted too far NE for us due to that ridge alignment. Unfortunately the PNA is forecast to remain - for the next 14 days with the west/east ridge. We are going for 10 days of mostly dry weather across 95 percent of the forum area with less than .10 qpf falling. As soon as that pattern breaks a little it will warm up and rain, no doubt.

We are -8 for the month, but normally you arrive there by being -16 and then normal over short periods. This has been essentially-7 to -10 each day, so nothing super cold.

To me, it's the shape of the ridge in the West. It's not been sharp S to N oriented so the cold hasn't been pressing south, more West to East. The GFS sharpens the Western Ridge and the cold crashes south.

The GFS is just ridiculously cold and dry as a bone. Shades of December '83 all over again.

The extra oomph in qpf came with the cost of a warming push.

It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.

Mostly sleet with some snow and freezing rain here now. Temp is 32, I doubt we go any lower.

Sleet and snow mixed here in town.

33 with light to moderate snow here. About to head off the mountain for a while. Looks like no precip down that way currently.

Snow is probably an overstatement. More like flake currently, but I've got hope.

34 degrees with a little bit of snow falling.

It looked like Maine or somewhere here in 1996. There was snow piled up to the bottom of stop signs and in mountains in parking lots from Early January until around Valentines Day.