John1122

The extra oomph in qpf came with the cost of a warming push.

It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.

Mostly sleet with some snow and freezing rain here now. Temp is 32, I doubt we go any lower.

Sleet and snow mixed here in town.

33 with light to moderate snow here. About to head off the mountain for a while. Looks like no precip down that way currently.

Snow is probably an overstatement. More like flake currently, but I've got hope.

34 degrees with a little bit of snow falling.

It looked like Maine or somewhere here in 1996. There was snow piled up to the bottom of stop signs and in mountains in parking lots from Early January until around Valentines Day.

There looks to be some snow moving by to my south right now.

Huge move for the UKIE, it looks about like the 14z RAP. It has been very dry/warm.

The 15z axis is slightly north but bullseyes the Nashville area.

The 14z HRRR was very similar to the RAP.

I suspect it's going to collapse at some point, but the RAP just gave me 4 inches. Sharp cutoff south of about 15 miles north of 40.

The warm nose that Holston mentioned in a prior post is often a problem for valley areas. It tends to be more prevalent towards Nashville and from Chattanooga to Knoxville. In this case there's also a general lack of heavy precip on some modeling and that doesn't cool the column as efficiently.

The 12z RAP and HRRR are relatively steady regarding the arc of snow compared to 06z. I still have my doubts about each.