John1122

I do like that we may get to phase 8, and low amp (which is usually the coldest version of 8) and that La Nina is much more likely to produce a +MVP, which means a deep Eastern trough.

I remember a few years ago we passed through phase 8 and it didn't get cold. I believe it was an el Niño, so the mentioned/proposed MVP likely wasn't favorable. I do believe ph 7 is generally normally BN here in winter. The article I linked above noted that phase 7 seemed to be unaffected by the state of the proposed MVP.

Been reading on the MJO today as I wait for the Tennessee game to start. The MJO phase only affects North American temperatures apparently in relation to the proposed in the paper, MVP (multivariate PNA). For instance, in the article I am reading, phase 5 is only warm if the MVP is also negative. This is from that paper. "The MVP is the first combined EOF of 20–100-day OLR, 850-hPa streamfunction, and 200-hPa streamfunction over the North Pacific and North America. The North American temperature patterns that follow each phase of the MJO change with the sign of the MVP. For example, real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 5 usually leads to warm anomalies over eastern North America. This relationship was only found when the MVP was negative, and it was not associated with El Niño or La Niña. RMM phase 8, on the other hand, usually leads to cold anomalies. Those anomalies only occur if the MVP is positive, which happens somewhat more frequently during La Niña years. Composite analyses based on combinations of the MJO and the MVP show that variability in the Pacific jet and its associated wave breaking play a key role in determining whether and how the MJO affects North American temperatures." The article can be found here. https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fmwre$002f141$002f11$002fmwr-d-13-00118.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fmwre%24002f141%24002f11%24002fmwr-d-13-00118.1.xml

The Euro ends up cutting the mid-state with western areas miserable in the 30s with rain, warm in the east ahead of the cutter. SE ridge wins on it vs the AI.

The Euro might be trying to go at a winter storm for the western areas at 288 this run. It's warmer than the AI but cooler across our forum area with less extremes on either side of the front.

The cold is wild in the midwest. 40 degrees below normal with -10s. Most of our forum area is in the 10 to 20 degrees bn range from the 3rd to the end of the run on the 6th.

The Euro AI has a very potent cold front in early December that really battles the SE ridge. It slowly overtakes the western forum first and it takes 36 hours or so to cross the state. Get some rain to snow in NW Tennessee that slowly spreads eastward and lightens as it goes east. Often times the cold comes a little quicker than models manage it in those situations, but sometimes it just sticks in place.

Saw a met today throwing out 1983 as a potential December analog. That was maybe the most frustrating winter month ever in my area at least. It was bitter cold, one day of warmth as a cutter passed, then ice box again. It was below zero on Christmas day. It warmed from the low 20s to the 50s early month, and rained 2 inches. Was in the low 40s and low 20s for a day, then it warmed into the 60s and rained an inch. It got very cold on the 19th, snowed a little over an inch with highs in the lower 20s on the 20th. Warmed up to 53 on the 22nd and rained nearly an inch, the bottom fell out and we got a dusting of snow on the 23rd and 24th, it was low single digits for highs on Christmas, with teens below zero lows. Dry as a chip. The high was 7 on the 26th, 24/2 on the 27th, it shot up to 48 on the 28th and rained again, just over an inch. That was ahead of another super potent cold front. Temps crashed behind it, it was 44 at midnight the 29th, and it fell to 2 by 11:00pm. It was negative 7 the morning of the 30th, and highs on New Years eve were in the teens. Through all that week of cold, we got around an inch and a half of snow but with that inch of rain in the few hours we were above freezing. All in all, December was around 8 to 9 degrees below normal, we had almost 7 inches of precipitation, but barely managed 2 inches or so of snow to show for it, with less than that in some areas. It's the ultimate month that shows that no matter how perfect things should be with well BN temps and well AN precip, we're prone to getting shafted on snowfall.

We set some record highs around the area today that were from 1985. December '85 saw an early month cold front pass and it was cold the first few days of the month after the 2nd. It was very cold mid to late month as well. 1.5 inches of snow with an Arctic front on Dec 20th, 1.8 inches of snow on Christmas day. December ended -8 in 1985.

Now that stations around my area are starting to update for November, some snow totals from them per NOAA co-op station data. Newcomb, which is about 8 miles from me but at lower elevation, 2 inches of snow, Oneida 1.5 inches of snow, Tazewell 1.5 inches of snow. The Southeast KY stations near me haven't reported yet, nor have Norris and Maynardville which are just south of my area. That's fairly impressive for early November.

If the MJO enters 8 at that amplitude it should be there for a while, and should crawl on through the left side into January.

Started a December thread since the op Euro/GFS are now there.

We are now into December with the OP runs. The first 7 to 10 days of December are likely to be warm, with a possible brief cold shot or two. After that, we have some potential factors that would introduce cold into the pattern. A cooperative MJO, a well place EPO ridge, a weaker than normal, if not split, SPV, all look possible as we head into the period of December 15thish towards the end of the month. See Carvers Weeklies post in the fall thread for what December looks like when the Euro has the MJO moving through more favorable areas.

The models are pretty reflective of the MJO. When they run and the MJO slows way down in 6, the warmth carries forward. The Euro is moving it to 7/8 faster than the GFS, which means cold arriving quicker by a bit vs the GFS. A weak SPV, MJO in 8, a cooperative Pacific, would mean cold and unfortunately, maybe dry cold. I saw another person talking about analog years and 1962-63 was in there again for them. It was 70s up until December 7th-10th time frame. Then it got colder and colder. This year had a similar October with a late frost, a similar November, with a cold and snow shot, then warmed up, it was a week La Nina with a falling QBO into deep negative. I also saw that in La Nina years when December had a -PNA, January almost always had a +PNA.

We ended up with incredible fall colors but they were all gone by the time the snow hit last Monday. They had about a week of vivid peak.