Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,610

  • Joined

  • Last visited

1 Follower

About John1122

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCSV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. John1122
    The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material.
  2. John1122
    My forecast remains less than an inch. All modeling has me at 3-5 inches except the UKIE, the NBM and some junk cams that stink beyond 12 hours.
  3. John1122
    NBM has upped me to 1.5 inches! After looking they used the 12z Euro ens for the 00z NBM.
  4. John1122
    They also added Union and Claiborne to the WSW. I suspect they NBM finally got the 06z Euro Ens data.
  5. John1122
    Euro basically maintains its last 3 runs.
  6. John1122
    The local EMS page is running MRX's 1 inch graphic.
  7. John1122
    If the Euro doesn't just fall flat for us tonight, I'll be fairly confident in a 3 to 5 inch event for me, with higher amounts east of 75, maybe 10+ in SW Va and NC border areas. I hope for a few inches for Nashville and hope Chattanooga can cash in too.
  8. John1122
    It was a bad bad model last storm. It kept showing heavy snow here when actual good models had long showed the warm nose was on the wall. I'm honestly mystified that forecasters lean that heavily into it. It may eventually be right, but not using the hands down best weather model on the planet's Op is just crazy. Instead as you get closer it relies more and more on shaky models. Giving a large weight to the HRRR at 20+ hours is some wild work.
  9. John1122
    While it is hopefully correct since it matches all other modeling at this point, the RAP struggles at range.
  10. John1122
    Yes and it confirmed I was correct. It doesn't use the Euro op. It uses the 50 individual members and it was using old ones for the run. I selected hr 42 6hr snowfall, and it used the hour 60 panels of the ensembles for the forecast.
  11. John1122
    I've seen snow here last for 12 hours after models stop showing it in these super cold situations with a saturated low dgz. I've seen some analogs to Christmas 2010, that happened here then. I ended up with about 8 inches of powder because it just snowed about 1/4th inch an hour, hour after hour after hour.
  12. John1122
    The 0z NAM even gives Nashville 1-2 inches of snow. So the mid-state may still be in this one.
  13. John1122
    So far, the RGEM and Canadian have shown that outcome, the longest, then the GFS, but the GFS faltered some earlier today. All modeling has folded towards the Canadian suite as we approach the event.
  14. John1122
    Maybe the UKIE. It looks like for snowfall they use individual ensemble members from the GEFS and Euro, the Rap, the HRRR, the SREF, all the CAMs from the NAM nest, and a few others like that. It's amazing really, because to me, not using the OP Euro is mind blowing.
  15. John1122
    Well, for some reason when I select the 00z Jan 30th 2026 NBM 6 hr snow fall at hr 36, it says it's using model runs from Dec 17, 2025 on the NBM dashboard. So I'm not sure which runs of what model they are using but I can't find any model that gives me a half an inch besides the UK.
×
×
  • Create New...