EasternLI

I think the potential is good this year. The million dollar question is does it pay off or not. We're certainly in a better position than where we could have been without any blocking at all.

It's a fair point. There's a reason for that too though right now. The blocking has the TPV pinned by the sea of Okhotsk. So the real cold is pinned in siberia with it. However, the location where it's pinned is also detrimental to it with blocking over the top and near the Urals. The hope for me is that we can nuke it. Which is actually a realistic possibility this year. That would unravel that thing and spread the cold more willingly around the mid latitude belt. Plus, keep the blocking going in the arctic. The Pacific will be variable this season in my eyes. So I'm hopeful for a long lasting -AO this season to work with the times when there are Pacific improvements. That's where my head is at this season. It sure will be interesting to see how it goes.

Just to further complicate matters. Don't know if anyone had noticed or not. Some models, like the gfs here, have been recurving this TC out in the far west pacific in 5-7 days. Absorbing it into the Pacific jet. Is that thing real, or not? Gfs says yes. Euro says no. There is nothing there currently.

Seems to me like just a lot of spread towards the end. Except for a miserable vortex again

Day 9 on today's edition

There's a lot going on. It's very complicated for modeling to figure everything out right now. I'm having a blast watching everything though lol.

Keep it coming....

Yup. But hey it's only December 5th. Who's to say there is no snow near the holidays

Yes. And I'm rooting for the SSW hard this year. Well, we've had some precursors too actually so it is very interesting. But why? Because it would be accompanied by blocking, already set up at 500mb. Whenever you get to do that, you don't need to wait for effects. Like we're used to seeing. The effect from this would be immediate. It's a very rare opportunity, and we're still very much in the hunt.

When I see this loop. I see a PV in severe distress. The absolute last thing that it ever wants to do is have itself shoved out to the Aleutians like that. If we want that thing to come unraveled. That would help the cause. A lot. Just look at that poor thing, that's a miserable life for the vortex.

Hey man, I have the keys to the bus. I'm thinking of warming it up.

A side note. If you take the TPV and swing it out to more of an Aleutian low like this. The SPV has a strong problem.

12z eps is mint. Pacific improvements begin on the 15th. And get better from there. Everything else on track.

Zero issues from my point of view. I love that the -PNA showed up for early December. I have an increasing feeling that it pays us dividends, later. This is not last year. Not even close. Different animal.

I thought the 00z eps was outstanding. The NAO block retros to west based on the 13th which has been the target date. Which in turn is starting to knock down the SE ridge. Still some Pacific troughing hanging out early on. But the Pacific straightens right out later in the run. These things take time to evolve, we're in good shape IMO. First panel is day 9 now too.

Well now I had to look. Yeah, bullish, we'll need to keep an eye on it.

Yes I've seen him on Twitter in the past. Thats interesting. He's very rarely bullish.

Sudden stratospheric warming occurs 15-30 days following that. Based upon the observations of those events in the research. That's a really really close match. If one was looking for longer lasting -AO possibilities. The -NAO retrograding through that point, is a very good way to start looking.

Would not change a single feature. NE Canada Ridge, Ural Ridge, Atlantic Low, Sea of Okhotsk Low, Western trough, Vortex passing by Alaska. Excellent.

It's been getting hammered. But still not enough. The end of the month though has potential for a show. The precursor look is there on all guidance. And with an evolving favorable tropical signal. Which is looking good at this time as well btw. It's not the standard situation for sure. Real signs pointing to watch this.

I don't think so. This seems kind of unique. Funky year. I wouldn't compare it to anything. It'll be interesting to look back at it.

Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance.

I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption.

Its an ensemble mean. Plus it matches the 00z eps run for a change. So that's not insignificant IMO. I'm not talking any specific events. Just the progression.