EasternLI

Yeah, saw that. I can see the eps members playing games in the tropics. They can do that sometimes. It happened last year. We witnessed some of that again with the gefs doing better with the Pacific this year. Gefs is much more coherent looking with the tropical signal going into the Pacific faster. I think the eps will come around. It's going in that same direction already anyway. Just not as clearly, yet.

Well gefs is going for the ridge link up as well. Ok then. And let's be clear here. The picture is day 10, but this starts at day 6.

I would love to see these 2 ridges get together over Santa's house. What would that be -6 ao lol. But it's also just a cool illustration. Simply look at what something like that could do to the TPV. It's shattered in pieces all over the NH.

Outstanding. We even see the classic blocking look of PV lobes trapped underneath. Very nice run.

Sick gefs at 12z. Pattern loaded after end of week deal all the way out. Cold centered on the great lakes is a good look for the area.

Yes. And I'm waiting to kneecap the PV in an attempt to have it stick around all winter. Still very optimistic about that too. Fingers crossed.

We very well could have a cold Christmas en route for the first time in forever.

That is not bad, 06z GEFS. I would very much like to grab a lobe of the TPV and stick it in the Aleutians.

Ahh, ok. Good eye by Griteater here in this excellent tweet thread. I did notice the tropical signal propagation into the western Pacific gaining traction on guidance. I was totally missing that there's about to be a +EAMT event this week. Those events really are important to Pacific Jet variability. I need to remind myself to pay more attention to that area. That's going to lend strong support to the idea of the arctic outbreak. The tropical signal (phase 7) was/is the big reason I'm just sitting here waiting in the dark alley, in dark attire, for the SPV to walk by.

No concrete thoughts about it yet. That's light years from now in this pattern. More just glancing at it. I guess I'd lean more towards the eps, though, because I think it's best equipped to handle the northern blocking. Feels like gefs may be playing catch up a bit with that. We'll see, plenty to track now while we wait.

Moving the right direction on the GEFS.

06z gfs waits until Monday, but at least showing something this time.

Something funky about this year. I've been saying since November. Just peeking at the extended 00z eps. The look from the 12z yesterday has held serve. What raised an eyebrow for me is this curious little move on the cluster analysis. Check out the arctic profile on last night's leading cluster. That was the 2nd place cluster on yesterday's run. So last night it takes the lead? Thought that was a bit interesting. They're centered on Europe, so rotate your screen accordingly. (Green border just means -NAO profile)

Arctic outbreak look. Cross polar flow on this.

Appreciate it. I'm in position with the brass knuckles.

I'm increasingly thinking we're heading right for the -AO winter scenario. The vortex is in rough shape. Certainly not strengthening rapidly like it should be at this time of year. In addition, the tropical looks are starting to resemble phase 6, if not phase 7. That's according to both gefs and eps this morning at the end of those runs. This would also be a very bad development for the vortex. Precursors have also displayed themselves this season already. The Urals blocking is an example of that. There's signs pointing towards this outcome, and we haven't deviated from that path. If anything, we're further along that path in my eyes.

Look at the tilt through the vertical column. That is not good, bordering on terrible for the vortex. It's been having a bad year with no signs of stopping.

It's not a happy PV on guidance I'm seeing either. It's still up and running, but doing so with 2 black eyes and a broken arm at the end of most runs. Not only that, but increasingly. Definitely interested.

Took a little exotic maneuvering, but we're making progress again.

Eps was not interested in 92W at all originally. Now caving to the GEFS. I think what ultimately happens with this feature will be important.

Yeah, I think 92W is giving a boost there. It really only popped up on modeling a few days ago. Then started trending to recurving to get mixed up in the Pacific Jet. I think this explains how the EPO snuck up on guidance.

I'm not overly sure about the period beyond about 5 days right now. I'm just not thinking much about the extended range. There's just a lot going on. In all aspects of everything lol. I like the chances, just enjoying the show for now. I'm not so confident tropical layouts will be terribly unfavorable later on either TBH. Lots of spread there, many options. Entertaining times for model watching. No time for shutting the blinds

The west pacific TC has been trending to recurving like the gfs had on that previous run. Euro losing on that. There is actually a real feature there now, 92W. It's being picked up by ensembles more and more as well. I think this is giving the boost to the EPO we've been seeing recently. Could help explain why the EPO ridge started trending, and perhaps lend some merit to that.

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at.