EasternLI

HRRRv4 is still very good. East of the city is going to get in on this.

Experimental HRRRv4 I'd sign for this run in a heartbeat. Some select shots below

Amsterdam NY is about to get slammed in a few minutes. And it's already going pretty good. Here's a webcam for there. Time sensitive. https://wnyt.com/article/12991/

Sleet and a very cold rain mix going on over here. On a side note, it hurts very much when sleet hits you in the eye.

That looks a lot more like an actual CCB getting going on this 6Z EURO. Less of an IVT look there.

Happy birthday, hope you get a crusher.

Awfully dry air at H7 that nam run.

I'll take the backend couple inches and run on that run. I'll be doing backflips over here if I see 1".

Somewhere up around the Capital district is going to get clobbered by this.

I keep thinking about this tweet from a few days ago.

That 6Z euro was pretty snowy for a lot of the region on Monday.

Howling winds over here this morning, gusty. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!!!

Yeah, you're right!! It does sound strange. I wasn't sure if that's what it even was when I first heard it.

Pop up downpour here too. I think I can hear thunder in the distance.

I agree. Sounds like last year to me. I'm wondering if the +IOD can mute that somewhat. Being that it's helping with subsidence in that area.

+PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out.

I don't know. We'll just have to see what happens, but I'm not really seeing as many similarities with last December right now. Other than the eastern Africa/west IO area, the canvas looks totally different to me. One other thing is, I don't really hate dealing with a phase 2 in December. Especially if the +IOD can constructively interfere with it. Last year it seemed like we were plagued by 3,4,5 for endless amounts of time and everything else was muted. Hopefully we can get some variation of the following.

Aleutian low / +PNA on the eps extended again.

I mentioned something to this effect a while back. These guys take it a step further. My thoughts were, and still are, that the warm phases are somewhat muted by this. Regardless, nice to see it being discussed.

Screw the weaklies. I'm just appreciating the aleutian low/ +pna look that has been building the past 4 runs in the extended eps. And that continued today. But everyone is busy canceling winter, in November.

That eps map is reflecting the MJO forcing in phase 1 due to the + IOD. That's the response you get in November from that area. As winter progresses, that changes. Some NAO is being added into the mix this go around. Which, the fact that it's actually looking to happen at all is promising for later on down the road. Meaning, maybe it shows it's face more often this year. Also, the + IOD event will be weakening as we make our way through the winter months. The question in my mind is, does the +PMM take over at some point? If it does, this place will be buzzing.

Those wave breaking events that they are talking about. Root for that to happen very often moving forward, in that area.

If you're interested: The North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern: Mature-Phase Structure and Winter Impacts https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1