EasternLI
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This is my favorite thing that I've seen that I've been watching. Seems like the IOD has indeed muted the MJO in the Maritime Continent this month as was hypothesized by causing subsidence. It's been weakening. As it loses its influence more and more moving forward, what might be the dominant forcing then? I still like where we're heading. This is not last year.
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Ensembles look pretty damn good as we move into the new year. GEFS and now the Eps today.
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Cheer up. It seems like things are coming together nicely. Just not yet. Watch what happens when we start getting into January.
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Christmas day high temps on the EURO.
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Well verbatim, if the EPS is correct. It's the plains that sees the real torch and we are on the periphery. AN though, yes. Be interesting to see where it ends up. Going to need to put up some big numbers to close out the month if you want +2 or better imo.
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Its also a reversal of the torch December's that we have been accustomed to for those years.
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Interesting move from yesterday to today on the EPS. Yesterday, the TPV lobe in Canada was split with the dominant piece amplifying the AK vortex. Today, it's headed for SE Canada and 50/50 bound thereafter. Plus more arctic ridging yet again.
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I've been intrigued by this winter for some time now. I still am.
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AO heading in the right direction.
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Big Iceland storm, looks wild.
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Looks like a nice 1-3" event on tap. Looking forward to seeing the holiday decorations with snow on them once again this season.
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What once looked like an AK vortex, now looks more like an aleutian low. Plus west coast trough previously advertised is off the coast a bit now. Allows the brief PNA spike. Arctic ridging trending a bit more robust too. Should be fun to see how it plays out.
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That one is a little bit interesting IMO. The weekend storm could possibly amplify into an effective 50/50 and pop a little ridge in Greenland. Ninja'd by bluewave lol
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Pouring over here. And the radar says it's not going to stop for a while. This is a good soaking.
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Hopefully this trend continues....
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Here's a very interesting tidbit from the twitterverse. I could be wrong, but I still think this winter is going to be a fun one.
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This was a really impressive GEFS run today.
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Wow, we're going into the freezer if this is right.
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Well I'd venture a guess that climo would be one factor. It's still really early in the season. So you would probably need something more anonymous. Maybe a stronger block. Or a better PNA perhaps, along with that block.
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Well, there was blocking though. The block broke down and the storm happened. Which is how it usually goes. Look at Greenland at the end of November.
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Interesting that some guidance is hinting at a piece of the TPV making a run through SE Canada. Ensembles don't necessarily disagree with that notion.
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Observations of snow, sleet, freezing rain Sun-Tue Dec 1-2-early 3
EasternLI replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
1.2" over here during the overnight hours. Which, at this very early juncture, I consider a win. I'll take it and run. -
Ok well I knew that the regular hrrr sucks, but I guess the new one does too. Good to know. But to be fair, it's a very difficult forecast.
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And 9 hours later ...
