EasternLI

I agree with that but I think we need a catalyst. Such as a TC/Typhoon. Which is what I believe is a good manifestation of that. There is some activity in that area currently. It's also one reason why the RMM plots look whacky sometimes.

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good.

We're seeing adjustments to ridging pushing into Greenland quicker. Which, I wasn't really expecting so soon TBH. Great to see though, obviously. MJO is crawling on the VP 200 charts. Don't really see it in phase 8 yet through the end of their runs, at least on those charts. Still phase 7. Getting really close though towards the end. More so on EPS than GEFS actually. Could be why we're seeing a slight improvement towards the end of those runs. Fascinating to watch all of this unfold.

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.

EPS last night sort of hinting at something similar late in the run.

Maybe we're stepping into a longer term favorable -nao cycle. They do run in decadal cycles. None to be found last decade. Last year it showed up too.

Great thread by Griteater again. Well worth a read.

We take.

Well, I put very little faith in extended modeling these days. Just in general, regardless of what is shown. What is nice to see is someone like Paul Roundy saying something like that. He is an expert on tropical convection/MJO.

That ~22nd thing gaining support from the EPS. Gotta watch the trends with this. This is what the top two EPS clusters are looking like from today's 00Z. Eyes open today. Hr 192

This is a bit.... different. Buried under the 12z EPS mean, HR's 192(bottom)- 240(top). Half of all the members did this.

Given the la nina went east based, coupled with a -PDO, favors -NAO. I posted the paper earlier in the thread about this. Not sure why people should have a problem with a weak or moderate Niña to begin with. Only weak Niño would be more preferred.

Yeah, recent research has really shown its a very important piece of the puzzle. Plus, this particular year, there's even more to that. La nina plus EQBO plus low solar (which lags ~3 years) cumulatively increases the North Atlantic response to said mjo. So the base state is primed to be very receptive. It's all a big part of the reason I got interested at the possible progression earlier this month. Now it's all about to get underway and I'm fascinated to see how this all goes. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display As shown by the spatial correlation resultsofFig. 10and the SLP/SAT diagnostic results ofFig. 11,composites for combined SMIN/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, and SMIN/QBOE/cool ENSO conditions produce progressively stronger MJO modulations of meanSLP and SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasiansector. These results are consistent with previous workshowing that the QBO interacts with other low-frequency stratospheric signals such as the 11-yr solarcycle

Gefs and eps have traded places. Now eps a little faster with the mjo it looks like. Still feeling like after new years for a potentially really nice - NAO and perhaps AO too. To me, ensembles are showing a gradually improving pattern. Which makes sense with slowly moving mjo. We'll see, steady as she goes for now.

Not sure we would want too much of a theoretical +PNA -EPO -NAO pattern. We'd probably just get the polar vortex sitting on our heads and freeze to death.

Getting EQBO composite vibes from the extended 12z EPS mean today.

Don't know if many are familiar with the ecmwf cluster analysis. It's UK centric, so not much use with the Pacific. However, you can still see what's happening locally. So there was one cluster on the 00z eps. Granted, a minority of the members, but nevertheless there was something mixed in there. Is it a longshot, absolutely, but it's not totally 0% yet.

Keeping one eye on this.

I'd be shocked if this year is even remotely close to something like 11-12. Tropical convection is night and day different from that year. It was stuck the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent in 11-12. Which is god awful for winter prospects. Remember 19-20 winter? Turns out the ++IOD was a huge problem, in hindsight.

Couldn't hurt to keep one eye on this 21st timeframe. Trends have been to take what looked like a huge western trough at long range and cut it off offshore instead more recently. That would allow some room for a transient height rise out west if that were to continue trending.

Happy hour gfs is always entertaining. Sure, let's have the PV set up at 50/50

Thanks for the kind words. Nobody I know cares about this stuff. So I figured I'd post some thoughts

I enjoy looking for colder outcomes. To me, warm is far and away the favorite as we move forward through the years. I enjoy cheering for underdogs. I do wish we would do something about it. However, it seems to me there's just too much money to be made not doing anything.