EasternLI

Just starting to nudge into phase 8 now at the end of the ensembles. Barely. Makes sense that those changes starting at the end would be related. The hope is for continuing propagation to be advertised. Along with continuing improvement to the pattern. I'm not going to worry about a pattern change after the pattern change that hasn't even set up completely yet. We'll cross that bridge when we can see it in the distance.

Grabbed this from NOAA's MJO update. 850 VP and wind anomalies. These are phases 6, 7, 8. Looks phase 7 like getting close to 8 at the very end?

This is just a really nice example of a 50/50 low on the 6z gefs after Christmas.

No, not at all. It would be far worse if it was in the central Pacific. That was a welcome development.

Yikes Not good.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this la Niña taking on an east based look is playing an important role. Impacts of two types of La Niña on the NAO during boreal winter https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z As a response to the EP La Niña, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Niña has a roughly opposing impact on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe.

I agree with that but I think we need a catalyst. Such as a TC/Typhoon. Which is what I believe is a good manifestation of that. There is some activity in that area currently. It's also one reason why the RMM plots look whacky sometimes.

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good.

We're seeing adjustments to ridging pushing into Greenland quicker. Which, I wasn't really expecting so soon TBH. Great to see though, obviously. MJO is crawling on the VP 200 charts. Don't really see it in phase 8 yet through the end of their runs, at least on those charts. Still phase 7. Getting really close though towards the end. More so on EPS than GEFS actually. Could be why we're seeing a slight improvement towards the end of those runs. Fascinating to watch all of this unfold.

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.

EPS last night sort of hinting at something similar late in the run.

Maybe we're stepping into a longer term favorable -nao cycle. They do run in decadal cycles. None to be found last decade. Last year it showed up too.

Great thread by Griteater again. Well worth a read.

We take.

Well, I put very little faith in extended modeling these days. Just in general, regardless of what is shown. What is nice to see is someone like Paul Roundy saying something like that. He is an expert on tropical convection/MJO.

That ~22nd thing gaining support from the EPS. Gotta watch the trends with this. This is what the top two EPS clusters are looking like from today's 00Z. Eyes open today. Hr 192

This is a bit.... different. Buried under the 12z EPS mean, HR's 192(bottom)- 240(top). Half of all the members did this.

Given the la nina went east based, coupled with a -PDO, favors -NAO. I posted the paper earlier in the thread about this. Not sure why people should have a problem with a weak or moderate Niña to begin with. Only weak Niño would be more preferred.

Yeah, recent research has really shown its a very important piece of the puzzle. Plus, this particular year, there's even more to that. La nina plus EQBO plus low solar (which lags ~3 years) cumulatively increases the North Atlantic response to said mjo. So the base state is primed to be very receptive. It's all a big part of the reason I got interested at the possible progression earlier this month. Now it's all about to get underway and I'm fascinated to see how this all goes. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display As shown by the spatial correlation resultsofFig. 10and the SLP/SAT diagnostic results ofFig. 11,composites for combined SMIN/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, and SMIN/QBOE/cool ENSO conditions produce progressively stronger MJO modulations of meanSLP and SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasiansector. These results are consistent with previous workshowing that the QBO interacts with other low-frequency stratospheric signals such as the 11-yr solarcycle

Gefs and eps have traded places. Now eps a little faster with the mjo it looks like. Still feeling like after new years for a potentially really nice - NAO and perhaps AO too. To me, ensembles are showing a gradually improving pattern. Which makes sense with slowly moving mjo. We'll see, steady as she goes for now.

Not sure we would want too much of a theoretical +PNA -EPO -NAO pattern. We'd probably just get the polar vortex sitting on our heads and freeze to death.

Getting EQBO composite vibes from the extended 12z EPS mean today.