EasternLI

I'm not saying it's impossible to, it's just not the best.

Here it is, this is the pattern we're not very fond of. But, the PV isn't really fond of it either. An amplified version of this would be interesting.

My fear is the next super el nino. Whenever that is. Global temp spikes accompany those. We really don't need that.

Agree. I've been monitoring this mjo since November. That's when hints were showing up. Gefs has done slightly better than the Eps during that time for whatever reason IMHO. Eps lost the signal at times. Neither has been perfect. Even 2 weeks out is a challenge. When they're on the same page though, that adds confidence. But even then lol

Right, absolutely. I've always assumed that the pattern would break around mid month, but that's just a guess. The upcoming pattern, while uninspiring for the rest of this month, is capable of doing damage to the PV. Some runs show that. Ultimately to what degree? Who knows. Not really clear to me how tropical convection is going to behave moving forward currently between guidance either. We're at an interesting point right now. Plenty to monitor moving forward. The other interesting thing is this disconnect between the troposphere and the strat. With blocking in the troposphere as the strat does it's own thing above. Which I find pretty interesting.

Yeah it's going to be interesting seeing what transpires. That's a bit of a strange solution there. La Niña base state is subsidence in the Indian ocean. Would be impressive to pull that off. Not saying it's not possible though. Gefs doing funky things this morning. Eps doesn’t jive with it. I feel like we might have to wait it out a little bit to get a clearer picture. Would like to see better agreement.

Oh wow, this is really cool.

EPS at 00z started the changes a day earlier than the 12z yesterday did. New years eve. So now we're facing this look at the end of the run.

Happy new year from the 12Z EPS

Link to where I said that was happening? You won't find one, because I didn't. You, on the other hand, said we have had a strong -PNA since September. False.

Just an absolute monster -PNA for months on end... Someone should inform the CPC.

The timing of the potential is a nice aspect when you think about it. Just as winter climo is getting more and more favorable. Its one of the reasons I have been interested in this since the beginning of the thread. We'll see how it goes, maybe it all falls apart, but there's no sign of that happening currently IMHO.

One of the eps clusters puts a very strong ridge over Greenland at the end of the run now. All of the clusters have the TPV very unhappy late. Fantasy land of course but that signal seems to be growing recently.

Strongly agree with the bolded. They seemed to constructively interfere with each other. Nice post. It's very interesting following these events this year. I'm excited to see how the atmosphere responds to the events from the 21st forward. Which seems to coincide with the NAO building around that time on guidance.

Just an interesting casual observation of the ensembles pattern late in the run. Check out this 500mb composite, from the following paper. Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030771 Some interesting similarities between one of those and the pattern starting to emerge at the end of ensemble runs recently.

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully the symptoms stay mild and disappear quickly. Feel better

Another new paper on the QBO - MJO relationship. Reiterating the importance of considering the QBO along with the MJO.

I'm not seeing it being much of a problem on current guidance. Always have to lookout for things like that though, for sure. There's some activity by the Maritime Continent now. However upper level subsidence is forecast to start growing in the Indian Ocean. This is actually beginning already. Which will start pushing east and start putting a damper on activity there, slowly. The wave is intact already east of this area.

Did you move to the panhandle of Texas recently? Congrats !!

I see a lot of assumptions about the MJO on the EPS using the RMM charts. It was not dying out on the 00z run. Use those at your own risk. It's modeled to start pushing east, slowly, starting on the 21st. That date has been solid for some time now. There have been no changes there. We'll see what happens, just need to keep watching trends. I see no cause for concern yet.

It's also very slow moving. So models could be rushing things. There's always concerns. Even if we were looking at a great pattern, there would still be concerns. Nothing is a lock with this stuff.

I thought he wanted one sentence J/k

The way I view it, the la nina is driving the indices. The MJO mixes that up. Not always, but has the ability. So you can get a better sense of where things could be headed. This is a great graphic.

I'm not seeing that. Not at this time.