EasternLI

I would have no issues at all with 08-09 here either. SSW event that winter too. Hopefully we can step up to the ssw roulette wheel and give it a spin.

Yeah, I'm struggling to see another way out. Although, if there was a recurving tropical system or something that could be another plausible way I suppose. Some kind of powerful force. That's probably not what we would prefer. As it would alleviate pressure on the PV though. Need phase 7 to do some work.

Well, there it is. 2008-09 shows up in an unpopular way.

Yeah, this should be quite interesting. Especially with this feedback loop happening. I'm curious what ultimately breaks this down.

That's exactly why I think we'll know more by mid January. If we haven't seen at least signs of anything by then, with the pattern locked in like this. It's probably not going to work out. I have 2 scenarios in my mind. Either we get the ssw and associated -AO. Or we don't. In which case we'd probably come around to the +AO in short order and that's not going to do anything for us.

Those Pacific warm pool waters we talked about in here really are the driving force of all of this. Be interesting to see what does actually break this loop. Phase 7 until further notice until some event shows up to disrupt this. But phase 7 is very capable of strat disruption as per the literature. La Niña plus EQBO is also favorable for doing that. The -PNA is a complimentary component to this. So do we break the loop before enough damage is done? Or does the strat eventually break the loop? I'd be a little surprised honestly if the MJO were to make a push east with this going on. Thinking it needs an intervening force. Just not sure what ultimately happens with this or what that force will be.

That's definitely a possibility. Not sold on that just yet though. Going to need to see how this pattern actually shakes out. The MJO being stuck in phase 7 like it is argues for a different outcome. And it seems we could be stuck for a couple weeks with that feedback loop. Just need to keep tabs on it for a while.

08-09 was actually not a terrible analog in the fall. Without this record -PNA I wonder if we could have seen that coast to coast trough with the -NAO. They are rare.

This particular stagnant pattern we're seeing does have the actual capability to turn the PV into a punching bag.

I was just having a little fun. Can't be serious all the time. The world could use a little more levity.

14-15 was a furnace December. Not calling for that, but that winter turned out fine. I've seen some fat squirrels this year too. Let me get the farmers almanac. Nope, we're porked, we had a full moon in August.

Here's an example on the 12z gefs. Here's the upcoming pattern. We know, it's not the best. Here's the upcoming pattern continuing. Here's what that pattern is doing higher up on this run.

We should have a good idea what's going on by mid January I would guess. One way or another. But not yet IMHO.

Part of the deal right now. You certain it stays that way until April?

A lot of football spiking on the season. It's Dec. 22nd. I wouldn't be so sure, yet. -PNA is part of a pattern which can cause heavy damage to the PV. A pattern that could possibly set up for an extended period. If it goes off, would have an effect on February into March.

It's interesting that east based la nina plus -PDO is a later season -NAO signal. I wonder if this phase 7 business plays a role with that signal.

Doesn't necessarily mean el nino. Just means la Niña is likely not returning.

Agree.

For the record, no that does not mean I'm already moving on to next year. Seeing that strat disruption pattern on ensembles. If we get an extended time with that, not sure what that's going to do upstairs.

La Niña self destruction countdown begins. For those who would like such things to occur. With an extended event ahead, this could be interesting for next year.

On self destruct for next year?

Ugh. Same to you and everyone else!!

Woke up with congestion and a headache. Ugh. Home test was negative but trying to find a place for testing anyway. It's proving very challenging at this time. High demand

Research indicates it's more phase 8 for NE snowstorms. There's a paper somewhere out there on that. The reason is that it's capable of altering the jet orientation to be more favorable for such events. The phases are just different locations where tropical convection is active. It can be much more complicated, but that's the basic idea.

Little bit of action in the strat too that run. Wondering if that's related. That would make sense.