EasternLI

That was slightly intriguing from 12z. I thought the gfs was on drugs trying to pull up some blocking to Greenland later in the run. Bit eyebrow raising to see the euro trying to do that too at the end though. So this is a little bit different now from the gfs. That was the first run trying to push down some of the weakening winds from upstairs into the troposphere. Not sure if the euro is trying that too. Curious to see if that keeps showing up now though.

How it started: How it's going:

Yup, that's probably exactly what we're looking at too. Just kick us while we're down.

Yeah, I'm not seeing much come out of this either. Looks like cutter cold front then ridge on this.

Oh yeah, it's absolutely about that. That goes back to the gradients conversation too. Without that, it's not going be very effective. That warm pool is going to be a real problem too I think. As it keeps getting warmer. I forsee trouble stemming from that thing, increasingly. I'm not just talking snow either.

Oh nice! I got 2 feet in that. Oh crap, read the room. *runs away*

There's a reason for that. It's complicated. At least as far as it's understood. This stuff is constantly being studied. It's interesting though, would be cool to check out a much longer record.

Well, from the research I've read. It cycles. On many different timescales too. So you can have a la nina cycle like that where it's more heavily biased la nina. But that alternates too. Some periods are an El nino cycle instead where it's biased in that direction. There's 10 year cycles, 100 year cycles, plus others have been discussed. You still get both types during either cycle. That one is a stark example though. I just wonder how these differences play into how the atmosphere responds. I'm sure it makes at least some difference somehow. I also wonder if you could get some absolute monster events when these cycles line up just right.

That's a curious case, 1972-73. Strong el nino in the midst of a ocean of la ninas. 70-71, 71-72 73-74, 74-75, 75-76 All La Nina. A couple strong ones too.

1933 looks very similar in the Pacific. To me, these just look like a huge SE ridge more than anything. I see what you're saying about the first one though.

Yeah, that motivated me to take a peek at that year. Interestingly, looks like it was a la nina. Looks like it was a central Pacific one too. Which would make an atrocious Pacific totally plausible. Which it was, apparently. Terrible arctic on top of that. What's more interesting though, to me anyway, is how this is a decaying la nina this year. So with that, the eastern part starts warming up before the western part. So we're in sort of a similar place with respect to that positioning. So it's a little interesting to see us dealing with a horrible Pacific this year too isn't it? Obviously everywhere is much warmer now though being as that was so so long ago, but just focusing on that one aspect. The placement of la nina.

Oh that's totally fair reasoning. If there is a jet extension, that's favorable for mjo propagation too. So we'll have to keep an eye on it. I'm just wrapped up nice and tight in caution flags

A bit of caution from me on that MJO forecast. That may not be what you would think. We've already had a jet extension give us a false signal once. Seeing it rocket east like that now, brings up the memory of that. Just something to consider. We'll see.

Felt like looking at the failed ssw attempt a little closer. It's not going to work out, but I like to try to learn why. As I was saying from the earliest mention of it. It's highly dependent upon how the troposphere progresses. Always is, this is where the wave driving happens to cause the warming. To me, in hindsight, it was just a little off. It was close, but it looks like the Pacific just didn't quite get it right. Everything else is there, but again, it's a little off. This one is mainly about the Pacific though I think. I could absolutely be wrong, but that's my guess.

Euro stopped trying and isn't even out yet

"Gradient pattern"

JMHO, I feel like it's la nina. It feels semi permanent because we're dealing with this multi year la nina. There was a time I recall, some years ago now, where the +PNA was viewed in the same way. When we had a more el nino like phase going on. It'll likely change, it all works in cycles. We need to be careful though in current times. The Pacific warm pool area likes to drive a -PNA. Depending upon how it's positioned. This is why la nina often does that. It's a prominent component in these. That area is also expected to continue to expand and get warmer as the years go by. It's a huge reason why we'll often bring up that particular feature. It's very important. But recall the discussion about gradients. La nina amplifies this effect by increasing that gradient with cool water to the east.

Lag effects from the imminent phase 3 forcing is going to want to shift the vortex towards Alaska beyond what we're seeing now I think. March I'm not sure, always a tricky month. But I feel like north America could be in rough shape in terms of cold if it plays out like that.

We have zero shot at that blocking for the reliably foreseeable future IMO. With the failed ssw attempt pushing down +AO conditions upon the troposphere. That would need to subside first. Then, after that, something needs to force it. We've got no signs of any of that happening anytime soon. This is why I was viewing that event as being very important.

Feels like watching a bad rerun of a TV show looking at ensembles. There is some cold going to be dumped on this side of the planet. True. Due to the ridging over Alaska. Problem I'm seeing, is that it's dumping into western Canada first and would need time to bleed east. This is normal but this is all still in motion. It looks like there's a Pacific wave break which will give this a shove to the east. So yes, this would suggest a cold shot in our area. In early February as a result. However that looks really transient as by doing this, once that trough is pushed east it breaks. Because another Pacific wave break pinches off the ridge by Alaska and it starts to retrograde to Russia. So when that trough breaks in the east it is replaced with a ridge. As we've seen displayed before during this season. So I think this all means a very transient cold shot in early February. There's a chance to pull off something with this progression as some select few ensemble members suggest. However it would take some impeccable timing to accomplish. Which we have yet to witness with basically anything this season. This is all based off what the ensemble means are showing this morning anyway. Gefs displays the same general idea as well.

Exactly. These are the important factors to watch for. This also applies to the PDO. It's perhaps far more important than it gets credit for from most. Check out this year. La nina with negative PDO. So there's a contrast, albeit it was stronger earlier in the season. Whatever enso is, are less effective in the Pacific without this contrast. Not saying zero, just less. This is a weakening la nina, probably not the best example. It's the same thing for el nino, but opposite anomalies. It becomes a lot easier for one to see the difference between enso events and their outcomes, with these general concepts. We get the same general idea from the jet diagram. It's easy to see how these contrasts factors into the equation in a big way by strengthening or weakening these circulations. It's all such a fine balance, which I know you know. Maybe this helps others understand how it all goes together.

Don't remember where I read that. But it's because of the walker circulation.

I know a lot of people are excited to hear El nino is likely, and it is. However, the last one we had (18-19) didn't have much in the way of sst gradients. I've done some reading which explains this is a factor that is significant. We'd like to see some cooler water around the Pacific warm pool area with it. Or at least have the el nino stronger than the warm pool. Could behave more enso neutral like otherwise. It's interesting and makes sense if you think about it. It's really the gradients that make things happen with our weather too.

I think the lack of a 50/50 did us in. Although we were modeled to get one for a time. Totally agree with your point here. Our timing has just been off. We just can't time anything to workout favorably. Anywhere with anything it seems like. If that makes sense. Including big picture stuff. All season long. It's amazingly annoying. This block belongs in the trash let us never speak of this block again lol.