EasternLI

Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though. Since it's intrinsically linked with enso. So I personally have some grave concerns about that feature continuing to warm in the future.

So 1918 seems to be another very interesting case actually. If others are interested, like I was. I only recently stumbled upon the NOAA enso reconstruction dataset. So I've been browsing. That timeframe sticks out. 1918 would have been part of the strongest la nina event of all time, according to that data. Going back to 1300 (!). Also, a 3 year event in the 3rd year. Which produced the following 500mb that January. Pretty wild. Three consecutive el ninos followed this. 1916 -0.907 1917 -3.724 1918 -2.315

I think it's everything together. I think that Pacific warm pool is a big deal though. I fear that thing. I strongly believe it's playing a role with that as it likes to drive a -PNA typically. So that's a logical response to that. But I also think la nina is amplifying that response to an extent since then. Because we seem to be in a la nina like cycle since then as well. By increasing the gradient next to that warm pool. Amplifying it's effectiveness. We did have the weak el nino in 18-19. However the gradient was non existent to the west of that because of that warm pool. So I think this is why that one acted atypical and more enso neutral like. No contrast. Same sort of situation for 19-20. This makes me very skeptical of the next el nino as well though. We'll need to see some gradients. Otherwise I think it's going to be useless again.

NYC next week

Yes, well said. Same page. Root of that is the Hadley cell expanding too. Causing those things IMO.

I don't see why 2 things can't be true together. This pattern is utterly disastrous, true. The planet is getting warmer, true. So here we are. I don't think it's a question of one versus another. It was only a matter of time before these 2 factors converged to produce a snowless season. Maybe it's this one. TBD

What an amazingly putrid Pacific this January has been too. You'd be hard pressed to draw it up much worse than this. Looks a little bit like the 1933 January Pacific did actually, but with a much much flatter Pacific Ridge this year. Wildly bad. Feel free to fade away la nina.

I have a couple 2015 pics somewhere. Can't find them at the moment. However I came across one from January 2018. There's a tree directly in front of me, and you can barely see it lol.

That was slightly intriguing from 12z. I thought the gfs was on drugs trying to pull up some blocking to Greenland later in the run. Bit eyebrow raising to see the euro trying to do that too at the end though. So this is a little bit different now from the gfs. That was the first run trying to push down some of the weakening winds from upstairs into the troposphere. Not sure if the euro is trying that too. Curious to see if that keeps showing up now though.

How it started: How it's going:

Yup, that's probably exactly what we're looking at too. Just kick us while we're down.

Yeah, I'm not seeing much come out of this either. Looks like cutter cold front then ridge on this.

Oh yeah, it's absolutely about that. That goes back to the gradients conversation too. Without that, it's not going be very effective. That warm pool is going to be a real problem too I think. As it keeps getting warmer. I forsee trouble stemming from that thing, increasingly. I'm not just talking snow either.

Oh nice! I got 2 feet in that. Oh crap, read the room. *runs away*

There's a reason for that. It's complicated. At least as far as it's understood. This stuff is constantly being studied. It's interesting though, would be cool to check out a much longer record.

Well, from the research I've read. It cycles. On many different timescales too. So you can have a la nina cycle like that where it's more heavily biased la nina. But that alternates too. Some periods are an El nino cycle instead where it's biased in that direction. There's 10 year cycles, 100 year cycles, plus others have been discussed. You still get both types during either cycle. That one is a stark example though. I just wonder how these differences play into how the atmosphere responds. I'm sure it makes at least some difference somehow. I also wonder if you could get some absolute monster events when these cycles line up just right.

That's a curious case, 1972-73. Strong el nino in the midst of a ocean of la ninas. 70-71, 71-72 73-74, 74-75, 75-76 All La Nina. A couple strong ones too.

1933 looks very similar in the Pacific. To me, these just look like a huge SE ridge more than anything. I see what you're saying about the first one though.

Yeah, that motivated me to take a peek at that year. Interestingly, looks like it was a la nina. Looks like it was a central Pacific one too. Which would make an atrocious Pacific totally plausible. Which it was, apparently. Terrible arctic on top of that. What's more interesting though, to me anyway, is how this is a decaying la nina this year. So with that, the eastern part starts warming up before the western part. So we're in sort of a similar place with respect to that positioning. So it's a little interesting to see us dealing with a horrible Pacific this year too isn't it? Obviously everywhere is much warmer now though being as that was so so long ago, but just focusing on that one aspect. The placement of la nina.

Oh that's totally fair reasoning. If there is a jet extension, that's favorable for mjo propagation too. So we'll have to keep an eye on it. I'm just wrapped up nice and tight in caution flags

A bit of caution from me on that MJO forecast. That may not be what you would think. We've already had a jet extension give us a false signal once. Seeing it rocket east like that now, brings up the memory of that. Just something to consider. We'll see.

Felt like looking at the failed ssw attempt a little closer. It's not going to work out, but I like to try to learn why. As I was saying from the earliest mention of it. It's highly dependent upon how the troposphere progresses. Always is, this is where the wave driving happens to cause the warming. To me, in hindsight, it was just a little off. It was close, but it looks like the Pacific just didn't quite get it right. Everything else is there, but again, it's a little off. This one is mainly about the Pacific though I think. I could absolutely be wrong, but that's my guess.