EasternLI

Been preoccupied watching the weekend storm, but man... Have a look at the whole 12z EPS... LFG

Just get that 850 low to transfer south of us. Cuts off the warming and keeps the moisture feed going. I'd like to see more of that on the 00z runs.

Next week is a legitimate real threat too. Pattern supports it as does the MJO for once. Don't wear yourselves out on this one

That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z.

Maybe. Wish more levels were available. Even if that happens the precip is about to shut off anyway I think with a dry slot. We'd have a good dump anyway before that. Still a ways to go with this thing. Should be fun to see what happens.

Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding.

Not very often that you see winter storm headlines cover that much real estate. In NNE, those are actually extreme cold watches. Impressive.

Steady at 12z on EPS. Very similar to 6z.

We take.

Seems like its been slowly trending towards doing more of that too. Here's the last 7 runs.

This cluster is growing FWIW..

6z gfs just threw it's hat in with this cluster from the euro weeklies from yesterday. Interesting winter we have going on here. Let's see how we go.

Nice update from the CPC MJO desk today. Here are the bullet points: • The MJO amplified over the last week, with a strong projection over the West Pacific on the RMMbased MJO index. • While eastward propagation has not been established on the RMM index, it is highly evident in the upper-level wind field. • Destructive interference between the MJO and the ongoing La Niña base state may be helping to slow the eastward propagation of the low-level winds and convection. • Dynamical model forecasts indicate an active MJO pattern, with the signal crossing the Pacific and Western Hemisphere through late January and early February. • Tropical cyclogenesis is most likely to occur in the vicinity of Australia or across the southwestern Pacific. • The MJO is likely to play a role in the evolution of the midlatitude pattern, acting to reinforce the cold signal across eastern North America. • Following a less coherent pattern for much of December, a robust MJO signal re-emerged at the start of 2026. The enhanced phase is currently over the far western Pacific. • The spatial presentation of the upper-level velocity potential anomalies has a Wave-1 signature consistent with MJO activity. • A strong couplet of easterlies (westerlies) has exhibited eastward propagation, and are currently centered over the Maritime Continent (East Pacific). This is consistent with robust MJO activity. • A shift in the position of the strong upper-level low in the vicinity of Hawaii helped calm the active pattern that began in early January. • The low-level wind field is less coherent than the upper-level signals, possibly due to destructive interference between the MJO and the ongoing La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific. • Trade winds have weakened somewhat across the equatorial Pacific, especially north of the Equator. • A strong westerly wind burst is ongoing just north of New Guinea, over the heart of the West Pacific Warm Pool. • Enhanced convection has begun to propagate to the West Pacific, mostly north and south of the Equator, as the MJO interferes with the La Niña base state. • Suppressed convection has overspread the equatorial Indian Ocean, consistent with MJO activity. • Suppressed convection continues across the central Pacific, mostly south of the Equator. • Both the GEFS and ECMWF depict rapid eastward propagation during Week-1, followed by a brief slowdown of the index and then continued propagation across the Western Hemisphere. • Other modes of anomalous tropical convective activity such as Kelvin waves may be at play in this uneven evolution. • The MJO is likely to continue playing a significant role in the evolution of the global tropical convective pattern for the next few weeks. • The GEFS RMM-based OLR tool depicts a robust signal, with somewhat slow eastward propagation across the Pacific. • The constructed analog tool also shows a highly amplified signal, with a better established eastward propagation across the Pacfic.

That really is a pretty good clustering showing up on today's run.

What a sweet looking loop this is. Notice at the end also how the +PNA heights are re-firing as the Aleutian/Dateline low amplifies. No real red flags from the MJO this time IMHO. Let's see if we can put a nice little run together. I think there's plenty of tracking that lies ahead.

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce.

That's getting pretty beefy now on the 12z AI EPS for tomorrow.. Buy or sell?

This run

I've been pretty adamant about the first phase 8 attempt being a fraud regardless of what the RMM charts had shown. Now, given the renewed MJO... Which still looks quite good to me for a real run at phase 8 this time on latest guidance btw... I'm more bullish on this run being more successful, but we'll see of course. Therefore, I believe the gefs is displaying the more plausible route forward. It's also slower with the MJO wave, which I believe would actually be the case. I think some of the RMM charts (EPS) posted lately are rushing it too much. Look towards the beginning of Feb or shortly thereafter for that potential IMO. This would support the idea of an energized Aleutian low/+PNA outcome such as the gefs is displaying. In addition, only one cluster on the extended range 00z EPS run from last night. So that means they're not helpful in showing different options in the extended this run. However, the one cluster that there is, does look to support the same idea also. Moreso than the smoothed out mean would suggest.

Some good points in the CPC MJO update from yesterday. I'll include the bullet points below from the PDF. They seem open to the idea of potential phase 8 sometime week 3. Which will be interesting to see what happens with that. Guidance is still looking good with it btw... These updates always give a good read, not only on the MJO, but also the state of ENSO. On a weekly basis. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf • The year 2025 closed out with a weak and incoherent MJO. However, after a slow start to January the RMM index has recently emerged from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific) • La Nina related ocean/atmosphere anomalies persist, but La Nina is showing signs of weakening with the enhanced trade winds across the equatorial Pacific recently disrupted. • Dynamical models are in good agreement in predicting a continued increase in the RMM index over week-1, then eastward propagation towards the Western Hemisphere by week-3. • Tropical cyclone development is most likely to occur near northern Australia during the next two to three weeks. • Following a well-defined MJO during late November, the time longitude plot indicates other modes of tropical variability, such as a fast moving Kelvin wave, have become more dominant over the past few weeks. However, there are indications in the VP maps that a wave-1 pattern may be reemerging. • Enhanced convection, related to the ongoing La Nina, persists over the Maritime Continent. • Consistent with the ongoing La Nina, enhanced upper-level westerlies persist across the equatorial Pacific. • Anomalous easterlies reemerged over equatorial Africa in late December, and have shifted eastward over the Indian Ocean over the last week or so. • Enhanced trade winds over the equatorial central Pacific, associated with La Nina, were interrupted around the New Year by anomalous westerlies, possibly associated with a Rossby wave, but they have since returned east of the Date Line. • Westerly anomalies have persisted across the Indian Ocean and expanded eastward since late December. • La Nina induced suppressed convection became quite strong near the Date Line during late December and into the beginning of January before weakening and shifting westward. • A plume of enhanced convection extended to the west coast of the United States throughout December. Enhanced convection increased over Hawaii around the New Year and has persisted to near-present. • Negative SST anomalies persist across all NINO regions, with cooler temperatures observed over the eastern Pacific. • The NINO 4 region has warmed notably over the last few months, with anomalies approaching zero. • Warmer waters expanding eastward beyond the Date Line suggests oceanic downwelling Kelvin wave activity. • Following an incoherent MJO from late November into early January, the RMM-based index has begun to increase in amplitude, recently emerging from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific). • Dynamical models are in good agreement with a continued strengthening of the RMM signal in phase 6 during week-1, then propagation eastward into phase 7 or 8 by week-3. • As seen above, the GEFS has better than usual clustering of members, and very good agreement is also noted in the ECMWF. This ensemble clustering continues in extended-range solutions from the GEFS and ECMWF, increasing forecast confidence. • The GEFS OLR tool depicts a large increase in the strength of the suppressed/enhanced convection dipole over the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific. • Late in the forecast period a slight eastward shift is noted. • The constructed analog tool is faster with the eastward progression of enhanced convection into the Western Hemisphere.

Yeah, we'll see. I don't disagree with anything you've said. It's worth mentioning is all. Not saying anyone should believe anything... that's on them.

Guidance still seems keen on taking the MJO through the Pacific. With what actually looks like a more legitimate attempt at phase 8 this time. But starting to actually reflect that at H5 more as well. I'd suggest some patience is in order. As much as no-one wants to hear that and I get it.

12z Euro AI on the more amped train.

MJO is interesting again after being inactive for a while. It's firing off starting in the west pacific and might make another attempt at a phase 8 run. If it lines up with these arrows, you are there. Especially if you can push that suppressed phase fully onto 120E. That did not happen last time. It attenuated and fell short. Therefore I do not believe we ever truly achieved phase 8 the first time. It'll be interesting to see what happens now, with the warm pool leaning slightly east. Thinking maybe we can get a better attempt this time but we'll see.