EasternLI

Hey, I'm all about the science, but I'm also a giants fan. Other giants fans know what I mean

It's always one liner responses too. Maybe put a little effort into it

Somebody should just start a January thread soon. My mojo sucks, so somebody else lol

Watch the progression. Focus by Japan. The west Pacific Jet extends and shoves the ridge poleward. Going to have to watch that. That's looking kind of legit.

Beautiful example of the wave break there on that.

GFS is doing it too. I think this is what we were seeing on the EPS mean as well.

Hmmm, perhaps the wave break idea is gaining support. Due to Pacific jet extension from high pressure decent in E Asia. This is not the only thing showing this.

So let's take a look at the MJO currently. When I look at this picture, I see that the MJO did in fact propagate east. However, it was shunted to the southern hemisphere just like the NOAA update said was possible due to la Niña. So it has minimal effect where we are. What we're left with, is the anchor by Australia and the feedback loop. But also, the strong subsidence in the Indian ocean. Which is also anchored in place by all of this. Guidance is showing a new wave forming in association with the feedback loop. Just my take on it.

I haven't looked at the eps clusters in a while. But they all have some kind of cold shot around new years. All over the place though, after that.

I always thought that we could get this season to around average snowfall. Haven't seen anything to change my mind on that yet.

Yeah, saw that. I was thinking that could be associated with a wave break. So maybe it gives a little shove when that happens?

I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run.

Just noticed this thread. 0.5" in Riverhead Measured 5 locations, all the same.

Wishing them, and everyone else dealing with it, a speedy recovery. That's good that they are only dealing with mild symptoms.

Was able to get a test the other day only since my mom works at a hospital. So they are testing family members as well. Came back negative this morning. So this is just a standard cold. Relieved.

0.5" of snow fell last night over here. First measurable. A nice Christmas eve surprise.

I think the scenario was laid out perfectly. And when circumstances arise they are noted and discussed. All of that discussion must have been overlooked. Or misunderstood.

Testing is booked solid here. Disaster

You guys think this is bad. The UK was expecting a cold shot for Christmas and maybe even some snow. And then had the rug pulled out.

I thought everything was pretty well explained in here.

Yeah, I'm not sure what actually does break this loop or even when that occurs. But I do find myself absolutely fascinated to see what ultimately does it. As boring as the weather is locally, there's really some interesting things going on to watch.

Just wanted to do a little illustration on why I didn't like the 11-12 analog specifically and still don't. If we take a peek at what was going on that year. You can see how the forcing was extending back into the IO. Very near the phase 3 location. That is shown in research to drive a +AO and that's exactly what happened. Game over. This bears some similarity to what happened in winter 19-20 with the extreme +IOD event. In hindsight, that was a major problem. This year, we have strong subsidence in the IO. So that's not allowing the same thing to happen this time. Some guidance is even strengthening this further. So with the forcing now further into the western Pacific instead, that leaves the door open for some better possibilities. Potentially. This is why I'm a bit more optimistic about this year than most. But we'll see, at least this keeps it interesting. For now.

Another thing about this upcoming pattern. Sure seems like another high end severe event(s) would be very possible, if not likely, somewhere in the Midwest at some point.

Yup, that's a product of the situation we're facing. It's going to be interesting to see what actually breaks this down. I suspect it will somehow, but not sure how yet or when.