EasternLI

WAG but I'm digging the 8-10th period to maybe do something. Fingers crossed.

I do think there's some merit to considering the prior year enso to the following year. I'm sure that there are some sort of lag effects somewhere. And I'm usually bearish on a 2nd year la Niña lol. This year though, is a little different so far. So it's interesting.

95-96 was so odd from what I've seen. A strange la Niña that one. For a few reasons.

I really enjoyed both. 13-14 felt like it was constant tracking. Just always something on the radar. I remember being worn out once that was over, but it was fun.

Yeah, I remember lurking in NE and coastalwx was at the breaking point in January lol

December 2014? That was an inferno IIRC

Really cool to watch

This is what @brooklynwx99 was illustrating. HM talks about these often. Watch the High descending in east Asia. This is already in progress. The jet then extends, and the ridge gets blasted poleward. This is something we need to keep an eye on moving forward.

Yeah, you're not wrong. Some use 50mb some use 30mb. That is very annoying. Agreed.

If we really were to get a look like that globally, after the hits the PV is taking currently...... It wouldn't like it

A couple things about that. It was made in October. So back then, all there really is to go off of is the la Niña. So that's exactly what that is. A cookie cutter forecast of la Niña. That's because, la Niña usually has convection pinned in the Maritime Continent. Which is colder in early winter. This year is being a little different so far.

It's kind of interesting too, with how the MJO got stuck like this. It's created a persistent westerly wind anomaly a bit closer to the central Pacific. That was previously stuck by the Maritime Continent. This has started warming the water there a bit. It's set to stay there for the foreseeable. It'd be interesting to see if there's any ramifications from this.

That's really quite interesting. Slow movement was expected, but this is getting pretty ridiculous. Much worse places that it could be stuck though, for sure.

I'll believe it when I see it, but we'll see.

Merry Christmas everyone Wishing everyone happiness and good health.

Gefs and the eps trying to shift the MJO a little bit east in extreme clown range. But they've tried this before though too. Just thought I'd make mention of it since both kind of did it this time.

Here we go. This is the little snippet that I remembered reading. It's in this paper. How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/20/jcliD200024.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display For most models and the reanalysis, the height response over the North Pacific to the QBO is mainly explained by the direct downward-arching of the equatorial stratospheric winds. Specifically, the arching easterlies during EQBO correspond to a high height response in the reanalysis and some models There's also some interesting points regarding the NAO and modeling. Which isn't really surprising as that's always been a fickle area. A strong negative (positive) NAO-like response is observed during EQBO (WQBO) winters in JRA-55 (Fig. 2a; also see Fig. 7 in Gray et al. 2018), while both lobes of the NAO (i.e., the low center in the midlatitude Atlantic and the high center in high latitudes) during EQBO are somewhat underestimated even in the ensemble mean of good models

Yes, I remember that. There was a specific height level of the QBO he focused on for that. I wish I could remember exactly. It doesn't seem to be online anymore. What I'm talking about is something else though. I'm just speculating that maybe the QBO aided the amplitude of the ridge somewhat directly. So we see a record -PNA episode as a result. Just a hypothesis. I'd have to find the paper on that and read it again.

I've been thinking a little bit about that record -PNA business. I think it's actually possible that the QBO could be contributing to the Pacific ridge directly. I remember reading that the QBO actually has a surface reflection. In the form of North Pacific high pressure. But only in EQBO and la Niña. I'll have to dig around for that.

Lol just terrible

I've done quite a bit of reading on the qbo. From what I've gathered, it doesn't quite work that way. I used to think of it in a very similar way. So I understand where you're coming from. Think of it as more of a modulator not so much as a driver. Which can constructively or destructively interfere with, well many various things allegedly. It's actually quite complicated. However, it's starting to be revealed to be quite important. Definitely not fully understood, and is a hot topic of recent and further research. Most notably in more recent research, it has a strong connection with how the mjo is able to propagate, it's amplitude, and ability to have effectiveness. This happens only during boreal winter and is strongly linked. So, for example, we have a la Niña plus EQBO. Research says that because of this, the MJO should be more active. Also, it should be able make it beyond the Maritime Continent barrier. While, under WQBO plus la Niña, that would be the opposite. If it were an el nino, it wouldn't matter for the MJO. But also, the MJO is less effective in those cases. This is just one example, it goes beyond the MJO as well. The MJO relationship has just been the focal point more recently. Here's one recent paper which goes over some of this. Hopefully this is somewhat useful information for you. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2019.1588064

Just wanted to wish you fine folks happy and healthy holidays. I lurk in here often because I think all of you provide some excellent analysis. Cheers

No way. Started a storm thread once and it almost immediately evaporated lol

Of course even a good pattern doesn't need to deliver anything either. But it would help.

This isn't like that. The actual wheels are in motion in 48 hrs. This looks pretty solid IMHO.