EasternLI

Gefs being more stubborn than eps with the western trough. But also more stubborn with higher heights in the arctic. This is 06z Gefs vs 00z eps for the same timeframe, which is the end of the eps run. So some differences noted here.

Would like to have @bluewave thoughts on this?

I think we're looking at it right now TBH, at least back to 1975 during winter months.

The greater concern, to me, in light of this potential. Is that a global temperature spike is known to be associated with such events. Something the planet could really do without IMO.

Gefs and eps are doing different things with that ridge after it gets cut off. Eps retrograding it. Gefs it's still meandering around just north. Found that difference interesting.

I look at that map and see a recipe for an ugly severe event.

Yeah, it's almost like it's trapped between that and La Niña. Some of it moves on at times, but that base area just stays put. I think it's a testament to the amplitude of the MJO this year. The QBO argued for that. Because of cooling in the very upper troposphere. It's impressive.

Wanted to post this here. I found 2 other years that did anything remotely similar to the current MJO. This year is higher amplitude than both. From the BOM website back to 1975. Super El Niño followed both of these 2 years later.

Super duper could be this next one if this phase 7 business keeps going thats for sure. That's what's building up all of the subsurface heat right now. At high amplitude too.

Yeah, that very warm water over there just keeps feeding the convection. So it's like it's holding it back almost. Pretty crazy actually. That's what it looks like keeps happening.

Also kind of interesting that those years were enso neutral.

Super El Niño followed both of these years.... 2 years later.

I only saw 2 years that did anything like this with the MJO. Back to 1975 on the BOM website. But they were less amplitude and the timing was different.

That could keep going. That's pretty wild.

Not saying it isn't. Just saying what it looks like.

My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable.

Just a thought. I wonder what's going to happen to the PV because of this? That wouldn't be in range yet. Seems to me, if you shove a very anomalous ridge to the pole. Could have some kind of effect. Vertically.

This makes sense. I've noticed too they can be very good at rolling a pattern forward. As long as there isn't an emerging factor that could change the equation. The study I mentioned also stated that internal variability within a pattern was an issue.

Always. I personally believe a significant portion of the reason for that is tropical convection. Which is tricky. I don't like the very long range models at all. I've read a study once, that said even a theoretical "perfect" model wouldn't be effective beyond 2 weeks. Even if it had far more computing power than is available currently. That's the reason I ignore them, for the most part.

It's so hard to have an idea what actually happens. As bluewave posted in the December thread, even NOAA notes how unusual this is. But it's far far better to be where we are now instead of being stuck in 3/4 currently.

I do believe that a Pacific flip is in the cards. The jet extension is the catalyst IMO. That's happening. But what does the MJO do? Not sure. The models have tried to move it along previously this year and it got stuck. Models are terrible with the MJO and this year has been even more challenging. So I'm just trying to keep an open mind and look at it objectively.

I'm a little wary of that Euro MJO forecast. It did try to push it to phase 8 late. The GEFS however seemed to back off a little and is slower. They were in better agreement yesterday IMO. Reminder, I'm not using those RMM charts. I'm looking at the what the ensembles are actually doing with the MJO. I'd just like to see some consistent agreement here.

It was very hot and dry that summer. We had a historic wildfire out here that year because of that. The recurving tropical observation is an interesting one as well.

Now that I'm thinking about it again. It was a more central Pacific la Niña, which had no business doing what it did. However, it did have a +PDO. I've read some recent research which does show that to be an important factor indeed. Which is because it can modulate the wave driving from enso. So I'm guessing it played a major role actually when I think about it. I never really used to think much of the PDO. I always viewed it as more of an indicator of the previous seasons pattern, but it is actually quite important in it's own right apparently.