EasternLI

That looks like a deep winter look. American guidance seems intent on rolling that ridge forward. Instead of retrograding it.

Sadly, not surprising and I fully expect more in the future. No convincing needs to be done. That's a decoy. It's the money being made that needs to be disrupted. Good luck with that. The fact it's a political issue isn't helping but is the secondary concern. Just my opinion and all I'm going to say about it because it doesn't matter what I say. What matters is what is done.

Yeah, that works. What I meant with the tropical comment, was that ridge would be parked right on the PNA domain if we had that. It would be even better than that look.

That is certainly a plausible possibility with that warm pool in mind. The ironic thing about your example there is that if that was shifted east by about 20 degrees or so. It would set up a pretty stunning pattern on the Pacific side.

Yeah, I was flipping through the individual members. They were all over the place later in the run. The general consensus still appears to be a jog east on the mean via VP200. But it's not a huge confidence booster seeing that the individuals are doing that afterwards. 850 winds take a jog east too on the mean so that helps. Still fairly strong easterlies in the IO throughout that run. Which are being shown to expand east a bit more into the Indonesia area at the same time. So this will be interesting to keep track of.

This is interesting. From someone who is well respected.

Something is going to happen to that Pacific Ridge. So we'll roll the dice with that for now. I don't have anything against the uncertainty other than it's kind of frustrating. At the same time, it keeps us alert. We're just trying to read the tea leaves here. But someone keeps rearranging them!!

Yeah, I mean there's a combination of factors happening in the upcoming period. Just a challenging set of circumstances right now.

That Pacific ridge looks to get cut off next week. Models are definitely handling what happens beyond that differently from each other. I suspect that's being reflected in the ensemble runs lately. That's what I'm thinking.

The mean is still going for a move east with the MJO though. So there's that.

The tropical stuff is another area with question marks. There's a good amount of spread amongst the members in that regard. Still a lot of questions and doesn't inspire much confidence in anything currently. Uncertainty reigns for now.

Not sure if I'd call that a total garbage look. However, it's completely different from its 00z and back at odds with the GEFS again. So much for agreement. I think the models are struggling with what to do with the Pacific Ridge after the jet extension hits it. I've been noticing that.

Hit it harder please!! TIA

It does look as though there's a bit more subsidence pushing east towards that area currently. So maybe we can actually move it along this time, finally, once the jet extension hits that ridge. At least get us out of this feedback loop we've been stuck in.

Yeah, thanks for posting that. It will be quite interesting to follow what happens with this. Maybe the trends moving forward could help, hopefully. The interesting thing to me is how the warmest water in the IO is in the southern hemisphere. You can see how the GEFS seems to be picking up on that there. Which seems related to persistent trades in that area near the equator. That looks to continue for a while. At least until the end of the 00z EPS. However we still have the Pacific warm pool relatively unchanged perhaps nudging east very slightly with the westerly wind anomaly that's been associated with this MJO being stuck there. I'm wondering how/if the QBO plays into this as well. Only because it seems to support increased suppression in the IO when in the easterly phase. So do we fire up a wave in the IO, but it's mostly SH focused? Or does the Pacific warm pool stay in the driver's seat? Or is there an unforeseen curveball somewhere?It's fascinating to think about this.

Very much dependant upon how this pattern actually shakes out. But I'm pretty sure this isn't a horrible prospect for keeping pressure on the PV. Just wanted to illustrate since this is a decent enough example.

Yeah, nice to see a little agreement finally. We haven't had that recently. Not surprised to see a +NAO with the Alaska ridging. As it's uncommon to have ridging in both locations simultaneously.

Oh no, my comment wasn't directed towards you at all. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be familiar with Matt. I very much value your takes and the conversations we often have here.

Ok, the PV is very clearly sitting north of Hudson Bay on that. It's a +NAO look. So you're wishcasting it to go to Europe with your post. No different than saying it could drop into the east...

The west is in the deep freeze and nothing is currently showing what you're saying. What on earth are you talking about?

Keep in mind also, Matt is in the UK. Where the NAO is a far more important factor for winter. Otherwise, they can often be blasted with atlantic air. We can work with the Alaska ridge here. They don't like it over there.

Well, all of the ocean warming that we've been, and continue, to see is on the surface. You still have water at great depth that is very cold. So ocean currents acting together with the atmosphere will still provide La Niña. Studies actually suggest the possibility for more intense events as the world gets warmer. That goes for both El Niño and La Niña. However, the currents are also mixing the warming water into the depths. If we ever did get to the point where the ocean is not capable of La Niña, we'd have real serious problems. For the most part, yes that's right. It's just not as easy as looking at the COD as another phase of the chart. In and of itself, it's not revealing much.

Exactly. Same page. I very much appreciate your input.

I enjoy reading those. This pesky west pacific very warm pool seems to have been driving the bus.

Just a general note. The COD isn't a real thing to the atmosphere. There's always forcing somewhere in the tropics. There can be different amplitudes depending on other factors. What the COD is usually indicating is interference or very low amplitude. So you'll sometimes see it go into the COD and re-emerge elsewhere as one area of convection dissipates while the other is still active.