EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Scandinavian/NAO blocking seems to have dominated. Some similarities with a standard la Niña pattern in the Pacific. Strange year really. Basically a -NAO la Niña.
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Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too.
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Yeah, exactly. I suspected it would be better after that 500mb look. Nice to see it move along finally. It gets pretty convoluted later in the run. I'd imagine we get back to the warm pool sometime in the 2nd half of the month. But we'll follow it and see how it goes. It's been fascinating following this one and I'm sure it will continue to be. I'm pretty happy with this development for now.
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Yeah, that was a nice run this time. Verbatim has a low pressure off the coast on the 15th too. Can't ask for much more at this range.
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We take this look. Now we're getting somewhere for day 5-10 mean. Finally looking much better this run.
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14-15th is ripe for something that run IMO. After that cold gets in here.
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Here's a storm chance after that passes IMO
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We're going to get a real shot of cold this month if this is accurate.
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I really like the idea of regimes. But I think it could use a little tweaking. It just feels like a bit of a misnomer calling this current regime a "arctic low". Which they are. I understand there's similarly. It just doesn't sound right to me looking at this IDK.
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Yeah, that was insanity over there. Firestorms are utterly horrible.
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EPS with another decent run moving the MJO along on the 00z. Some signs of it making it's way back around to the warm pool area for later in the month. Will keep monitoring it. That would seem to make sense to me. Nice run again with the western ridging. Hopefully we can make something happen with that while we have it.
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Dry conditions and very strong winds culminated with a disastrous wildfire in Colorado yesterday.
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Definitely a healthy looking vort at least. Close up the mid levels a bit more on that gfs run would have helped a lot. Wouldn't take a lot to see a better solution. Nothing major of course. Hey, at least it's something to look at for a change.
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Yes, that's true. It seemed to want to linger more near Indonesia on the 00z run though to me. So that gave me pause. I've seen that before. This run was moving it along a bit better again though. So we'll see if that continues for a few runs. Tricky situation with that warm pool and La Niña.
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Ok, not sure who's being referenced. I think there's been plenty of warnings of various factors in these threads.
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Yeah, this run with the EPS was better with moving the MJO again. It get wishy-washy sometimes so need a few more runs. But it was nice to see anyway.
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Well, just saying what it showed. More neutral AO. +NAO look to me. Let's see a couple of more runs anyway. It did make a move with the MJO this time too.
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Yeah, that's much better than last night.
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That EPS run was back on board with getting the MJO moving again. Decent run this time.
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Actually looks a little bit like that phase 6 composite @bluewave
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+PNA +NAO +EPO sets up on the 12z EPS. That would probably get colder here. With the vortex near the NAO domain. Let's see if we can get 2 runs in a row lol.
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It's certainly concerning. Studies suggest it may very well get worse in that area in the future. It seems to have allowed stronger coupling to the La Niña then there otherwise should have been. When you take into account the ONI really isn't overly impressive. MEI being more robust early on may have been a clue here.
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Yeah, step back on the EPS last night in regards to hope for any improvement in this area IMO. Not sure it's going to change much at this point. It's the warmest water on the planet, which matters. It's also playing right into the la Niña base state. It's been a concern all along like we've been discussing. I'm not going to sugar coat it. Toss whatever the RMM plots are showing. This is running the show, attempts at altering that have been futile. We'll keep monitoring but that's the way it looks honestly.
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Hopefully the American guidance has a clue here. It seems to help facilitate more damage to the strat with the Ural ridge building in. Interesting.
