EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Yeah, I agree. This year has been fascinating and it continues to be.
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We take the Alaska ridging with the vortex in that position. The east based nature of the la Niña certainly keeps it interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays into the rest of the season. If it were a more central based event, you could forget about it.
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Forget the teles, just have a look at this. Then, rest assured that the EPS is also headed in this direction. Because it is.
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5" and ripping -
4" OTG and coming down good.
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Light occasionally moderate snow over the last hour. 2.5" OTG. Looks like some good stuff may be about to push in here.
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Yeah, some of those guys have around 10" OTG
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Mod. Snow over here attm. Just about 2" OTG.
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Yeah, if I can pull 6" out of this, I'll be a very happy camper.
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I've been intrigued by this westerly wind anomaly planted near the dateline on the EPS. I wasn't sure what to make of it at first when it showed up. Now I'm wondering if it has something to do with the east based nature of the la Niña. Like you had mentioned earlier. Sure seems like that could possibly be the case.
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I must say, it sure seems that the EPS is now slowly stepping towards what the GEFS is advertising longer range. We'll see if this continues. Very interesting.
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Lock it in. Luckily I'm generally up around 4am.
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Yeah, thats an impressive look on that.
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Gefs seems to like the idea of the Alaska Ridge regime later on in the month.
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I'll take this sounding anytime. Would rip pretty good over here for a little bit. Let's see what happens the rest of the day.
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That would be a welcome development. I like how the Indonesian waters have cooled off a bit as well. That's helpful. Still some very warm water in the western Pacific. However it's a bit displaced to the east of Indonesia now. Which is a good thing. It'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
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Eps took a step back from the -PNA look in the long range on the 00z run. We'll see what future runs do.
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H5 looked better that run. All I care about at this time.
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00z NAM is going to be a tick west.
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Mid month period looks great. Hoping it delivers. Towards the 20th, the EPS wants to pull the ridge back in the GOA. So the trough heads west. It's done this for a couple runs now. We'll see if this continues. Monster ridge up trough Alaska. Tropical convection is re-firing back around the warm pool around this time on the mean now a little bit more clearly. So something to just keep in mind. Seems it could be gaining a bit of traction for now. That's what I'm seeing on the EPS today for whatever it's worth.
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For me, seasonal models are automatically tossed. Regardless of what they show. How was the epic pattern it had advertised for winter a couple of years ago? Could be right, but I don't trust those.
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Seasonal forecasting is extremely difficult. There are just so many different factors in play. Not to mention, some factors are not fully understood. You can get a general idea based on mostly enso but there are usually curve balls. I enjoy reading the science on the topic and guessing. But ultimately that's all it is, a guess. Especially since the planet is warming. That's changing the equation further.
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If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up.
