EasternLI

H5 looked better that run. All I care about at this time.

00z NAM is going to be a tick west.

Mid month period looks great. Hoping it delivers. Towards the 20th, the EPS wants to pull the ridge back in the GOA. So the trough heads west. It's done this for a couple runs now. We'll see if this continues. Monster ridge up trough Alaska. Tropical convection is re-firing back around the warm pool around this time on the mean now a little bit more clearly. So something to just keep in mind. Seems it could be gaining a bit of traction for now. That's what I'm seeing on the EPS today for whatever it's worth.

For me, seasonal models are automatically tossed. Regardless of what they show. How was the epic pattern it had advertised for winter a couple of years ago? Could be right, but I don't trust those.

Seasonal forecasting is extremely difficult. There are just so many different factors in play. Not to mention, some factors are not fully understood. You can get a general idea based on mostly enso but there are usually curve balls. I enjoy reading the science on the topic and guessing. But ultimately that's all it is, a guess. Especially since the planet is warming. That's changing the equation further.

If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up.

I think it's going to come down to what the MJO wants to do, at least in part. I was flipping through the eps individuals vp200 and they were all over the place later on. Some in the IO, some back by the warm pool, others out in the Pacific. No idea which way this goes currently.

It's a good look after day 10, but is hinting at some -PNA at the very end. Could be right, but it's just unclear at the moment IMO. We'll have to watch some future runs.

That one is for El Niño. This is the La Niña one. But we don't know what the MJO is going to do anyway yet.

06z EPS

I haven't said much about the MJO recently because it's been pretty unclear on modeling what it does moving forward. Which is still the case. NOAA'S update actually made a note about that in the update on Monday: •MJO propagation has stalled near the Date Line, likely due to the destructive interference with La Niña. •Dynamical models exhibit large spread regarding the evolution of the MJO over the next 2 weeks, with a meandering intraseasonal signal depicted in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. •Tropical cyclone formation remains possible across the South Pacific during the next week, consistent with the current MJO signal.

Sweet 6z nam run. Let's see more runs like that today plz.

It's hard for me to just outright punt something at 60hr that looks anything like this. Maybe it doesn't come together, but I doubt we're looking at the final solution yet.

This last sentence is part of the reason I'm thinking what I'm thinking. It seems like that happens more often than the reverse.

12z eps members. Gut feeling is we see some adjustments back west come tomorrow. But we'll see. Long way to go in today's modeling world.

I'd take this look all day long.

6z eps is tightening up the spread a bit.

Here's 850 on the 6z euro

Yes, need to monitor the mid levels closely for this. That's where the answers will always be. Always. 850 is important but 700 is as well.

Longer term GEFS and EPS look good. There should be more chances this month. Here's the 12z eps 10-15 this is the 5 day mean.

Here are the 12z GEFS and EPS mean plus members locations for the time period.

I was in Southampton earlier, by flying point Beach. There was a few hours of light snow and a coating. The dry air was always a concern. That concern came to fruition.

I think we could have had chances with that -NAO that we had. The problem with that was we also had a record (near record?) -PNA along with it. In which case, forget about it.

Noticed that ridge trying to retrograde a little more at the very end. That's all I was trying to say. It does still look good.

EPS comes around beyond that. Not quite as good as yesterday but it's still good. It's in the process of retrograding that ridge to the west coast during that time posted above. It's not certain how long the western ridge will last however. Hopefully we can make the most of it. It's hinting at retrograding it further into the Pacific towards the end. Albeit with a trough still in the east. Mid month looks good. Closer to the end of the month, might not. We'll see how it goes.