EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Yup, remember it well. Always hearing stories about how snowy the 60's were too made my head want to explode lol. Since like 2000 has been insane.
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Here's the day 10-15 12z EPS, today's edition. This is a 5 day mean. The very end of the run still has the same look as this. Its impressive.
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Not really, that's a nice look right now. Focus on the mean for now, that's where the skill is at this time. Long way to go. Confidence in a storm is increasing for this period now. That's the take away. -
Bunch of bombs in that ^ Looks like we found the period of interest.
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I remember an awful lot of folks canceling the whole season in December. I was not one of them. Always said this year held some potential. Now let's see if we can take advantage.
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Agreed. In addition, I know why the EPS did what it did from 00z to 12z. It's having some difficulty with how to handle tropical convection. Which, I'm sure you already suspected as well. It's back in line with the GEFS now at 12z in that regard.
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You're preaching to the choir. I found his comment humorous.
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No clarity here yet. Probably more convoluted today. Ocean storm looks like a solid miss on this run though before this. Going to have to wait it out a little bit more. Hopefully more clarity tomorrow.
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-PNA evaporated on the EPS at 12z
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To each their own, but I feel exactly how I felt yesterday TBH.
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Yeah, I mean you want to see a favorable pattern show up first. That doesn't mean it has to ever produce. However, what it does mean is that there's a higher chance of actually producing something. If models subsequently start showing snow events, they can be taken more seriously. When models show snow events without a favorable pattern, you can lean towards "forget about it". That's how "patterns" should be viewed.
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00z EPS looks a little bit better than yesterday for this IMO. With some better spacing from the ocean storm and a lean west of the members from the mean.
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Makes sense with the cross polar flow look setting up. Have you seen the arctic recently? Its frozen. I feel like we haven't seen that in forever. No open water to modify the airmass this year.
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Yup, the EPS has really come around. The GEFS doesn't disagree. Not even any hint of breaking anything down yet either. Doesn't look like a one chance wonder at all. Which is really nice. This is a 5 day mean.
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Same. And Same
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It's like a Jackson Pollock painting of shortwaves running around. Just going to have to stay alert. Next weekend window is a legit one IMO. Let's see what ensembles do, not just today, but as the week progresses. And if it doesn't work out, there's more opportunity ahead.
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Sorry for your loss snowman. Just remember that she's in a better place. Free from that terrible disease now.
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Yeah, it's an interesting situation. I'm not really sure what happens beyond this point. It's going to be very interesting to monitor moving forward. You would think it would circle back there at some point just going by past events. However, does the current climate care about past events? So it's interesting to think about.
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Yeah, potentially the most dramatic. Looks like that translated to the most negative PNA on record in December. Impressive stuff going on this year.
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Going to need to keep an eye on next weekend. Probably best to just keep paying attention from here on out TBH.
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Great post ^ Just wanted to add a supplemental visual example of the pattern advertised on overnight ensembles.
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This is from yesterday, but is another important factor to keep tabs on. It's an interesting aspect of what's going on.
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Split flow look out west. Can the STJ come out to play?
