EasternLI

Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs.

Beyond mid month is still questionable. I personally wouldn't feel good about any solution until we have decent agreement between eps and gefs. Going to have to watch that TPV and what that does too.

WAG but the 14-16th period looks interesting. Based on the big picture view. With a TPV lobe pulling out and some sort of transient PNA spike.

It's signaling a retrograde towards the very end. Seems due to some increased phase 2 activity from the looks of the tropical stuff. That can be a storm signal too. Gotta watch that. There could be something lurking out there before then like brooklynwx99 is saying. Afterwards, It's heading in this direction gradually I think. At least on today's edition.

Here's the 10-15 loop.

Here's a great illustration of what happened in 2015. Versus what occurred in December of this season. In a single image from the following paper. But it's also important to keep in mind other factors which may be present. One such example could be the PDO. Which was positive in 2015. Or the QBO. Nothing works in a vacuum. It's all interconnected. That's also important. It can get really extremely complicated. That's what makes seasonal forecasting so very difficult to this day. This image shows what effects could be expected from 2 different areas of focus via tropical convection. You can see how different the effects can be just from some subtle difference in location. Because of the rossby waves originating from these events. Indonesian activity drives a -PNA. Which we witnessed in December, in an anomalous way. However, move that just a bit east into the west/central Pacific. You see something like a 2015. Which is what happened that season. Hope this can be somewhat helpful. This is why we look to the MJO for clues. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7

Agreed 100%. It's proving beneficial to look at things from a broader perspective. Instead of focusing very heavily on ENSO SSTs alone. Which has been the go to main method for many years. It's helpful to look a little more closely and keep an open mind in recent years. Older analogs have become less useful, which has been discussed. Keeping track of those marine heatwaves is going to be important moving forward.

I must admit. This is all sort of why I saw this season as potentially pretty interesting back in late November. With the MJO possibility initiating the mixing up the pattern. Just not to this degree we appear to be witnessing. I'm very pleased to see these thoughts working out better than expected. It's an incredible flip from the December mess. Nice paper too, a rather fascinating season continues.

Not concerned. You set up something like that. Something will pop up I'd think at some point. It's a far cry from what we were thinking not very long ago. February is not canceled this year.

This is what looks to set in. Starting ~day 9 until the foreseeable. There's good ensemble agreement for this now.

Good stuff. You can thank the MJO for initiating the process IMO.

Absolutely. It's the same thing we observed in December, but now it's a bit different.

Yeah, it's a great point. I was thinking about this a little. Kind of goes along with the ideas of patterns lingering in recent years. But also, check out the 2 areas of tropical convection there. Compared to the actual (not anomalies) sst. It lines up really well with the warmest water. But the cooler water near Indonesia is playing a role to it appears. That's interesting.

Yay, more ice...

That's a concerning euro run given what the gfs is showing.

Good grief if the 12z gefs comes to fruition with these looks. This is prime for some arctic intrusions. Starting sooner rather than later.

I'd imagine some sort of middle ground between euro and GFS would be realistic. But this bears watching for parts of this forum. With temps crashing and what looks to be a pretty cold Saturday following. Losing power would not be the best situation.

Well yeah, not taking it to the bank. Just posting it. I'm more interested to see if the gfs holds onto it's idea with this. And which way the euro leans at 12z more than any other guidance right now.

This is the wrong trend direction Nam. Go the other way.

00z EPS for comparison. To me, these looks suggest risks of some arctic shots. With a ridge position like that. Plus the vortex biased towards the eastern half of Canada. Maybe some kind of split flow look? Don't just look at the colors. Check out the height lines as well. It looks as though there would be cold air dumping east of the rockies with these looks. This is different than December in that the ridge is much closer to the west coast instead of further west by the Aleutians.

I think 30" was certainly plausible somewhere. Radar seemed to suggest the possibility. When compared with what I witnessed at my location.

I'd pass on any ssw that late. You could kiss any hopes of a pleasant spring goodbye. Misery until June.

Euro seems similar to 00z.

Last 10 runs.