EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Yes, but the reason the euro was a hit was because it showed a clean phase. Nothing else is doing that yet. So they miss. I believe that's what he's getting at. It's not a straightforward process of the low being west or east. Hence my agreement with him. Hopefully the euro has the right idea here. -
I'm in the same boat. Euro on an island isn't good enough for me. Need some other guidance to come around.
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I certainly like the spot it's in currently. Long ways to go yet. There was a time that the last one was thought of as OTS. I don't trust anything Euro included. It'll be interesting to see what guidance does tonight.
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There's a lot going on at 500mb. Would love to see the euro hold and get some other guidance on board. Or at least start to. That was an improvement on the eps, so that's good. Would like to see the gfs come around at least somewhat to the euro idea in coming days. Cautiously watching. Following ensemble trends for now.
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12z eps for Saturday 00z for comparison
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Here's that depiction on the 12z run. It's cool to see that, because it doesn't happen very often.
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3k NAM was showing that as a possibility with the flow off the water ramping up. Pretty cool.
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People are going to stay up all night to watch models for an impending event regardless if there is a thread or not. It's always been that way. In fact, this is nothing compared to the old days. 40 pages lol. We would have had over 100 back in the day in here. Plus if Walt Drag, of all people, sees a need for a thread. By all means, there should certainly be a thread.
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EPS at 00z still likes the weekend. GFS doesn't look like a mirror image of tomorrow anymore. So that's a positive. GEFS is pretty far SE, but it did that with Monday as well. Cautiously watching.
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High wind warning up out here with gusts to 60mph. 3k nam suggests worst of winds would narrowly miss, but slam RI to Cape Cod. 12k nam hits eastern Suffolk and then the Cape. Hoping for the narrow miss.
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Agree. I'm really curious to see what the findings are with this after further investigation.
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The scientists on Twitter who study this stuff are really buzzing about it. So that grabs my attention for sure. Sure looks like a very impressive event.
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Not a fan of how far west that ridge is on that run. Hopefully that adjusts some. Leaves too much room to amplify west of us. Or that trailing shortwave evaporates.
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18z GFS is like a carbon copy setup of Monday for next weekend Like almost identical at H5 LOL Trailing vort diving in at just the right time this run. If this ends up the same way....
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I appreciate your thinking. My only real hope moving forward is that we do not see some late season SSW. Which would just mean an utterly lousy spring at that point. I'll pass on that. Otherwise, I'm not overly sure how things unfold exactly yet. It's a fascinating year, even though snow totals have been lousy so far.
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Well if a very deep western trough shows up, there's going to be no shot at snow. So patterns are discussed. Rightfully so. None of those fine details would matter one bit. See December. Option B is zero discussion, which seems a bit odd on a discussion board. Or we can discuss shoes.
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Yeah, we're talking about a western trough, but it's not determined how deep that would be. Simply that it's a favored feature at this time as February begins. Variations matter. Regardless, like it or not, there's a couple snow threats before then as well.
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Preferably, in my humble opinion, if we do see a deep western trough again. I'd rather we didn't have a concurrent negative NAO this time. That just puts us in compression purgatory again like December. I'd prefer to just let the SE ridge allow some warmer weather in here. But we have no control, so we monitor.
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NAO is a different animal. I don't trust models beyond the regular ensembles. The NAO can be forced in different ways. It's the most unpredictable domain. Need to take that one week at a time. Especially considering it has shown up already this year.
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Tropical convection on guidance currently is supportive of the Western trough showing up. So we probably will get to see how it plays out. That looks real this time as advertised.
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It's really impressive. I mean, the pressure wave from the blast is being recorded all over the place. Some flooding is hitting the west coast too.
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You're probably right. I'm not familiar with these things. I want to try to dig into some research on it sometime soon. Just to have a better understanding myself. It's interesting. I wasn't thinking of specific effects. I just imagine there could be some sort of effects from this.
