EasternLI

Admittedly, I usually don't look at the Canadian ensembles. So I don't know how useful they are. But they seem to be getting more on board at 12z for whatever it's worth.

This is not bad at all for this lead time.

I do believe that's the first time that the Canadian showed anything like that for this potential.

Looking out towards the end of the ensemble runs at 00z. Strictly in the sense of tropical convection forecasts. Here's what I see on the GEFS and the EPS. Note, there are select few situations in February in La Niña where the SE ridge is not a factor. Hence the background state alone favors that as a likely feature in some form or another. That being said, the GEFS and EPS don't quite agree yet on the evolution. How things ultimately verify will probably hold more clues to how the rest of the month would evolve. Just wanted to put something quick together regarding this. Let's see what ultimately happens. EPS is suggesting something similar to this: GEFS is suggesting something similar to this:

Bengals win?? This is definitely the 80s again.

Could always be more like this:

Agree. This is the smart approach. Until we get much closer. It's still an eternity out there right now.

That'll do for now.

Yeah I hear ya. No worries at all. I can certainly get on board with easier. No doubt. High latitude blocking would be great. But there's still concerns even in that situation. Let's say there's blocking, but it's positioned poorly. Or overpowering, so suppression is a concern. I just feel like timing is the most important factor most of the time regardless.

Well yeah, never claimed it would be easy. Personally, I feel like there's absolutely no situation where these things are easy. Even in a perfect setup. There's always something to worry about. It's either no blocking, or a kicker, or something else. Is it a needle threader, sure I guess. But I hate that term because I think they all are anyway.

Euro is east, but better at H5 than 00z was. This is closer to a really good solution than 00z. I actually prefer this look at this time because it leaves a little room incase it comes in more amplified in the future. Which we see often.

Lots of question marks in the long range still from what I can tell. Even some hints of another possible Pacific Jet extension way out there on some things I've seen. Beyond the Pacific retrograde early on. February is being tricky to call right now IMO one way or another.

After a winter filled with nothing but fail. I'm pretty sure folks recognize that fail is a possibility. It's all everyone in here has been harping about constantly. At the same time, folks need to realize that a storm happening, is also a legit possibility. It's not only the gfs op showing that possibility FWIW.

Getting some powerhouse looks at H5 on the models. Should be fun to track it this week.

EPS with continued improvement for next weekend at 00z.

Yes, it's a valid period with some PNA amplification. All models showing some potential. Def worth watching.

Gfs trying to cook up something at 18z again for same timeframe. H5 is loaded.

This is a fine look at this time. There's room to work with this look at day 9. We take.

I'll be interested in the ensembles. That's a legit timeframe which has been mentioned. Multiple models hinting at brewing up something. Keep an eye on that one.

Ha, how about this.

So the concern I brought up yesterday in regards to the February torch seems to have been reflected on some of the guidance today. Interesting.

Yeah, I get it. My post following that one stated the support for that scenario to start February. I'm not arguing against it. I'm actually hoping that they have the right idea for the whole month. This winter has grown tiresome. Lots of wasted potential to date. In several ways. The jet retraction is really the driving force of the upcoming retrograde. It's pulling everything back west as it retracts IMO. There's very good agreement on that since it is happening in the nearer term. Beyond that, is where I have questions.

I'm not sold on all of February totally torched yet. Even though I would not mind some warmer weather at this point at all. It's questionable. I agree. It's going to need to be monitored. The IO has warmed back up over the last several weeks. It's not as cut and dry as it might seem from where I'm sitting. Looking at it, I'm not really sure how much early February even torches. It's a phase 6 look to me to start. Which offers a western trough look, but also troughing in eastern Canada in La Niña February's. That would be a compression situation with any se ridging. That would not allow the ridging to be as effective as it otherwise could be in our area. There's some question marks here.

To me, the upcoming jet retraction in conjunction with the upcoming tropical convective layout supports a western trough as we're beginning February. Beyond that, is a huge question mark from what I see right now. No confidence until future runs can provide more clarity.

As much as I would not mind a torch February at this point, I can't put any faith at all in an extended mjo forecast. From any model. The euro weeklies are nothing more than an extended 00z eps run. Well looking through the individual eps members mjo forecast from today's 12z, which is newer, they are quite literally all over the map. That's a huge grain of salt for me. Huge. Even just two weeks out. Maybe it's right, but I can't put any trust in that when regular 15 day ensembles struggle mightily on the regular. For me, I have to take it two weeks at a time, max. Right now, probably even less seeing very little agreement between individual members currently.