EasternLI

Still a long time to go. I'll tell you what though. If we were to blend all of this operational guidance right now. That's a pretty darn good look for this subforum as a whole.

I wouldn't hate on that euro run as is in the city proper. Don't go by the clown maps. You had a solid 700mb look there.

This is a tricky setup. Lots of moving parts. Don't get too caught up with any particular solutions yet. What we need is to look to narrow down the spread between all guidance. That's step one for me.

12z GEFS

Just read Mt. Holly's take. Thought it was a really good breakdown of the situation as it stands. Worth a read, especially the first paragraph. In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.

Yeah, this has solid big time potential for somewhere. It's going to be a long week good times.

Seems like we're back to reality in that the ensembles led the charge with adjustments west. Not the other way around. Personally, I'm still in ensemble mode until maybe tomorrow's 12z at the earliest.

06z EPS

Looks like we're getting somewhere now. 00z EPS was pretty good too.

Will be interesting to see how this ensembles vs ops theory works for this one. This time the tables are reversed with ensembles more amplified. Personally, I'll take ensembles all day long at this range. However, yes, ops do need to come around soon as well. What's the sample size of this speculation? Is it just the one storm this year, or are there many other instances?

Yeah, maybe it doesn't work out. But it's not a bad position to be in currently at 120+hrs away. At least there is room for future amplification this time, should it occur. Certainly worth watching at least. Long way to go.

00z eps vs 12z eps 12z 00z

Admittedly, I usually don't look at the Canadian ensembles. So I don't know how useful they are. But they seem to be getting more on board at 12z for whatever it's worth.

This is not bad at all for this lead time.

I do believe that's the first time that the Canadian showed anything like that for this potential.

Looking out towards the end of the ensemble runs at 00z. Strictly in the sense of tropical convection forecasts. Here's what I see on the GEFS and the EPS. Note, there are select few situations in February in La Niña where the SE ridge is not a factor. Hence the background state alone favors that as a likely feature in some form or another. That being said, the GEFS and EPS don't quite agree yet on the evolution. How things ultimately verify will probably hold more clues to how the rest of the month would evolve. Just wanted to put something quick together regarding this. Let's see what ultimately happens. EPS is suggesting something similar to this: GEFS is suggesting something similar to this:

Bengals win?? This is definitely the 80s again.

Could always be more like this:

Agree. This is the smart approach. Until we get much closer. It's still an eternity out there right now.

That'll do for now.

Yeah I hear ya. No worries at all. I can certainly get on board with easier. No doubt. High latitude blocking would be great. But there's still concerns even in that situation. Let's say there's blocking, but it's positioned poorly. Or overpowering, so suppression is a concern. I just feel like timing is the most important factor most of the time regardless.

Well yeah, never claimed it would be easy. Personally, I feel like there's absolutely no situation where these things are easy. Even in a perfect setup. There's always something to worry about. It's either no blocking, or a kicker, or something else. Is it a needle threader, sure I guess. But I hate that term because I think they all are anyway.

Euro is east, but better at H5 than 00z was. This is closer to a really good solution than 00z. I actually prefer this look at this time because it leaves a little room incase it comes in more amplified in the future. Which we see often.

Lots of question marks in the long range still from what I can tell. Even some hints of another possible Pacific Jet extension way out there on some things I've seen. Beyond the Pacific retrograde early on. February is being tricky to call right now IMO one way or another.