Still a lot of spread for my liking. But you can see a lot of them show something similar to the op. With different placements. Hopefully we can narrow this down more through the day in a favorable direction.
I'm not going to be confident about anything with this sucker until I'm watching radar. We need to keep watching future model runs. Trends today will be important.
Here's a couple probability maps from the 00z eps run. 6+ and 12+
Still a couple days of model runs left... little confidence how this exactly plays out yet.