Yeah, that wasn't as bad as 12z. Hopefully we stop the bleeding. Then gradually improve tomorrow and Friday? Not out of the question. Wouldn't take a lot.
Not sold on that yet. I could be on board tomorrow though depending on how this shakes out. Not sold on this failing completely either. Thinking these unfavorable trends will stabilize and possibly some better trends tomorrow. We'll see. Delicate setup for this.
Now if that vort doesn't get held back as much. You can quickly get these bigger storm solutions showing back up in a hurry too. Something to keep in mind.
No. The energy is hanging back in the SW messing up the phase. So the storm doesn't get a chance to amplify on the east coast. Heights stay flatter in the east and everything happens too late. If at all. We want the energy in the SW to be more progressive. We're going the other direction right now with that feature.
This is what happens when the vort digs into the SW too much. It messes up the phase. Everything becomes more progressive. That could ruin this whole thing. Northern stream is ready to play ball. But it can't do it all alone.