This is so very close. It really doesn't take a lot to get a monster solution out of that run. Usually, the big ones will do that, yeah. We'll see. EPS still had some big hits at 00z. Curious to see what 12z does after that run now.
Too soon to get comfortable with any outcome. Wholesale changes are not needed in this situation. It's simply too close to call. Very difficult forecast.
Gfs was a tick better with the phase. Results on the ground were fairly similar though. Because it's got a broad trough. Like to see that sharpen up a bit.
The low is kind of on a blob of convection. Wonder if that's real. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. If it isn't, would be a better solution I think.
It's got a double barrel low look to it. With some vorticity running out in front of the main trough. The trough is a bit broad. It delayed the capture a little bit. Would be nice to see a tighter/sharper trough. Let's see what else today brings.