EasternLI

Lag effects from the imminent phase 3 forcing is going to want to shift the vortex towards Alaska beyond what we're seeing now I think. March I'm not sure, always a tricky month. But I feel like north America could be in rough shape in terms of cold if it plays out like that.

We have zero shot at that blocking for the reliably foreseeable future IMO. With the failed ssw attempt pushing down +AO conditions upon the troposphere. That would need to subside first. Then, after that, something needs to force it. We've got no signs of any of that happening anytime soon. This is why I was viewing that event as being very important.

Feels like watching a bad rerun of a TV show looking at ensembles. There is some cold going to be dumped on this side of the planet. True. Due to the ridging over Alaska. Problem I'm seeing, is that it's dumping into western Canada first and would need time to bleed east. This is normal but this is all still in motion. It looks like there's a Pacific wave break which will give this a shove to the east. So yes, this would suggest a cold shot in our area. In early February as a result. However that looks really transient as by doing this, once that trough is pushed east it breaks. Because another Pacific wave break pinches off the ridge by Alaska and it starts to retrograde to Russia. So when that trough breaks in the east it is replaced with a ridge. As we've seen displayed before during this season. So I think this all means a very transient cold shot in early February. There's a chance to pull off something with this progression as some select few ensemble members suggest. However it would take some impeccable timing to accomplish. Which we have yet to witness with basically anything this season. This is all based off what the ensemble means are showing this morning anyway. Gefs displays the same general idea as well.

Exactly. These are the important factors to watch for. This also applies to the PDO. It's perhaps far more important than it gets credit for from most. Check out this year. La nina with negative PDO. So there's a contrast, albeit it was stronger earlier in the season. Whatever enso is, are less effective in the Pacific without this contrast. Not saying zero, just less. This is a weakening la nina, probably not the best example. It's the same thing for el nino, but opposite anomalies. It becomes a lot easier for one to see the difference between enso events and their outcomes, with these general concepts. We get the same general idea from the jet diagram. It's easy to see how these contrasts factors into the equation in a big way by strengthening or weakening these circulations. It's all such a fine balance, which I know you know. Maybe this helps others understand how it all goes together.

Don't remember where I read that. But it's because of the walker circulation.

I know a lot of people are excited to hear El nino is likely, and it is. However, the last one we had (18-19) didn't have much in the way of sst gradients. I've done some reading which explains this is a factor that is significant. We'd like to see some cooler water around the Pacific warm pool area with it. Or at least have the el nino stronger than the warm pool. Could behave more enso neutral like otherwise. It's interesting and makes sense if you think about it. It's really the gradients that make things happen with our weather too.

I think the lack of a 50/50 did us in. Although we were modeled to get one for a time. Totally agree with your point here. Our timing has just been off. We just can't time anything to workout favorably. Anywhere with anything it seems like. If that makes sense. Including big picture stuff. All season long. It's amazingly annoying. This block belongs in the trash let us never speak of this block again lol.

Yeah, has that look. Agree. Just want to see the atmosphere produce a couple flakes. This is what we've been reduced to

Rap saying maybe for later on today

Yeah, that's where I'm at too. I've been thinking that for a while. I'm with you on this. Maybe we send the vortex on the Alaskan tour and fire up a warm spring. That would be fine with me after this mess.

Eps happens to display a colder option within the same context of what I was talking about. Just by shifting the orientation a little bit. Just something to be mindful of. Possible, but we all know how that goes.

Maybe phase 4 to follow what I was referencing. Hard to say, that's way way out there. Looks like we could just shift the vortex to Alaska eventually lol

No you do not. However, the atmosphere needs to be receptive. This would be a very hostile condition for the time being.

Quickly piggybacking off the strat post. So then if you look at what the gefs is doing in the long range. It makes sense that you would see a strong vortex near Greenland. Also, the troposphere had wanted to push ridging poleward due to previous events. That would have been the phase 3 composite I posted days ago. But you can also see now, that gets "blown away" by the strong winds descending from above. Dynamics in the stratosphere are consistent with this solution during this time. It's a nice example of how different factors work together. Even if it isn’t in the way we would hope.

Looks that way. Yeah.

Since I last posted on the stratosphere. Cross guidance trends have been unfavorable for getting it done. There's still warming ahead, but it looks increasingly clear to me like it will fall short of what we would need. Here's the latest gefs trends illustrating this. So what could that most likely mean. There's still some warming modeled. Here's the cross section of the 00z gfs as a guide. Note the strong winds high up in the stratosphere. Associated with the stronger than normal SPV currently. With weakening winds arriving at the time of the warming. Notice how the warming weakens the winds higher up, but this is pushing down the stronger wind into the troposphere. But the warming isn't going to be enough to finish the job. So what are we left with. I'd say most likely that means no help from this. As it actually acts to strengthen the vortex in the troposphere instead (+AO) by pushing the stronger winds down from above. With the SPV regaining strength again following this as hinted on latest guidance. Could happen later I suppose, but I really rather not by then as the hour is getting extremely late. Hopefully this is at least a little helpful for those more curious about the nuance of it. Ideally, a stronger event would push the reversal of winds down through the atmosphere into the troposphere. Which is how the arctic blocking can emerge. That looks very unlikely today.

Brutal

$20 on the torch.

Filthadelphia? Not a fan. Let's go Giants!!

It's so weird though. And I've seen this happen on several runs now. With the strat warming, I'm seeing troposphere alterations like simultaneously. That's abnormal isn't it?

We 2001-2002.... All of the cold has been firmly planted on the other side of the planet for the most part. Our winters have never been good here when this happens. It gets warmer here now than it used to though because the world is getting warmer. This is just reality. I feel like we need the ssw to come through, with it's associated effects, if we are to crawl out of the basement at this point. That's about all I see that could offer a large scale shake up which we need. With that being said, even if we get one, it still may not matter because there's no guarantee how it might play out. But if we don't, I think we stay locked in the basement and siberia stays locked in the freezer.

Another stratosphere post since the target timeframe is approaching 10 days now. Dr Butler tweeted yesterday she referenced the nasa GEOS model. Without a doubt, this is who to pay attention to for this. So here's the GEOS model from overnight at day 10. Fairly robust run. Be interesting to see what trends or doesn't with this over the next several days. Gefs was a little more enthusiastic about it overnight also. Just starting to come into view on the euro as well. So we observe.