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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    Agreed 100%. It's proving beneficial to look at things from a broader perspective. Instead of focusing very heavily on ENSO SSTs alone. Which has been the go to main method for many years. It's helpful to look a little more closely and keep an open mind in recent years. Older analogs have become less useful, which has been discussed. Keeping track of those marine heatwaves is going to be important moving forward.
  2. EasternLI
    I must admit. This is all sort of why I saw this season as potentially pretty interesting back in late November. With the MJO possibility initiating the mixing up the pattern. Just not to this degree we appear to be witnessing. I'm very pleased to see these thoughts working out better than expected. It's an incredible flip from the December mess. Nice paper too, a rather fascinating season continues.
  3. EasternLI
    Not concerned. You set up something like that. Something will pop up I'd think at some point. It's a far cry from what we were thinking not very long ago. February is not canceled this year.
  4. EasternLI
    This is what looks to set in. Starting ~day 9 until the foreseeable. There's good ensemble agreement for this now.
  5. EasternLI
    Good stuff. You can thank the MJO for initiating the process IMO.
  6. EasternLI
    Absolutely. It's the same thing we observed in December, but now it's a bit different.
  7. EasternLI
    Yeah, it's a great point. I was thinking about this a little. Kind of goes along with the ideas of patterns lingering in recent years. But also, check out the 2 areas of tropical convection there. Compared to the actual (not anomalies) sst. It lines up really well with the warmest water. But the cooler water near Indonesia is playing a role to it appears. That's interesting.
  8. EasternLI
    Yay, more ice...
  9. EasternLI
    That's a concerning euro run given what the gfs is showing.
  10. EasternLI
    Good grief if the 12z gefs comes to fruition with these looks. This is prime for some arctic intrusions. Starting sooner rather than later.
  11. EasternLI
    I'd imagine some sort of middle ground between euro and GFS would be realistic. But this bears watching for parts of this forum. With temps crashing and what looks to be a pretty cold Saturday following. Losing power would not be the best situation.
  12. EasternLI
    Well yeah, not taking it to the bank. Just posting it. I'm more interested to see if the gfs holds onto it's idea with this. And which way the euro leans at 12z more than any other guidance right now.
  13. EasternLI
    This is the wrong trend direction Nam. Go the other way.
  14. EasternLI
    00z EPS for comparison. To me, these looks suggest risks of some arctic shots. With a ridge position like that. Plus the vortex biased towards the eastern half of Canada. Maybe some kind of split flow look? Don't just look at the colors. Check out the height lines as well. It looks as though there would be cold air dumping east of the rockies with these looks. This is different than December in that the ridge is much closer to the west coast instead of further west by the Aleutians.
  15. EasternLI
  16. EasternLI
    I think 30" was certainly plausible somewhere. Radar seemed to suggest the possibility. When compared with what I witnessed at my location.
  17. EasternLI
    I'd pass on any ssw that late. You could kiss any hopes of a pleasant spring goodbye. Misery until June.
  18. EasternLI
    Euro seems similar to 00z.
  19. EasternLI
    Last 10 runs.
  20. EasternLI
  21. EasternLI
    Yuck, hope that's far from the right idea. We don't do ice over here. But we did it in 94 and that's some cold confluence pressing. Think the interior would get some snow out of that though.
  22. EasternLI
    Westhampton reading -3F. I just drove by there and the reading on my dashboard was the same.
  23. EasternLI
    Yeah, I agree with that 100%. We should be able to mix in a little fun with the serious analysis. Same as in life. Just keep the drama out.
  24. EasternLI
    I can buy 25" for Orient. I was wondering what they got over there.
  25. EasternLI
    Bengals in the super bowl? What alternate reality is this?
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