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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. Radar is less impressive than before over my head. But it's still heavy snow here. I'll be buried.
  2. Getting hammered here. And the best of that band is just east of me. I'm steady on the edge of it.
  3. Gfs upper air evolution was night and day from reality. Gfs failed on this. End of story.
  4. I'm going to attempt to get some sort of measurement. Sure seems like a decent amount already.
  5. Absolutely epic band starting to take shape on radar in Suffolk.
  6. No idea how I'm going to measure this. It's snowing sideways.
  7. Hrrr slowly working on consolidating that low earlier too. Comparing last 3 runs.
  8. It very well could be. That was never off the table really. It's just such a sensitive situation. Upper air support has argued that it should be. Can it overwhelm the convection? That's the question. It's possible.
  9. The stupid thing should be west with a look like this.
  10. Brutal situation for modeling. If this thing fails. We could have a lot of the sne crew wash ashore after leaping into the sound.
  11. The gfs was not even close with this evolution. What's the final outcome going to be anyway? It hasn't happened yet. Curious to see how the 18z euro handles this too.
  12. Been busy today ftl. 12z euro just illustrates how complicated the setup is. It could play out like that. There were some eps members at 00z that did something similar. It could also not play out like that. This is really a nowcast event if there ever was one. Something to monitor is that convection in the south when it gets going. Models in general struggle with that. Maybe trends on the short term CAMs can help. No idea.
  13. Yeah, agree with that. Noticed the same on some of these runs. It was a hair away from doing that anyway.
  14. Yeah, not sure about the double barrel thing. We may not know how that plays out until it's happening. Could be real. Eps had some of those. But also a lot that didn't. That's challenging.
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