EasternLI

Arctic outbreak look. Cross polar flow on this.

Appreciate it. I'm in position with the brass knuckles.

I'm increasingly thinking we're heading right for the -AO winter scenario. The vortex is in rough shape. Certainly not strengthening rapidly like it should be at this time of year. In addition, the tropical looks are starting to resemble phase 6, if not phase 7. That's according to both gefs and eps this morning at the end of those runs. This would also be a very bad development for the vortex. Precursors have also displayed themselves this season already. The Urals blocking is an example of that. There's signs pointing towards this outcome, and we haven't deviated from that path. If anything, we're further along that path in my eyes.

Look at the tilt through the vertical column. That is not good, bordering on terrible for the vortex. It's been having a bad year with no signs of stopping.

It's not a happy PV on guidance I'm seeing either. It's still up and running, but doing so with 2 black eyes and a broken arm at the end of most runs. Not only that, but increasingly. Definitely interested.

Took a little exotic maneuvering, but we're making progress again.

Eps was not interested in 92W at all originally. Now caving to the GEFS. I think what ultimately happens with this feature will be important.

Yeah, I think 92W is giving a boost there. It really only popped up on modeling a few days ago. Then started trending to recurving to get mixed up in the Pacific Jet. I think this explains how the EPO snuck up on guidance.

I'm not overly sure about the period beyond about 5 days right now. I'm just not thinking much about the extended range. There's just a lot going on. In all aspects of everything lol. I like the chances, just enjoying the show for now. I'm not so confident tropical layouts will be terribly unfavorable later on either TBH. Lots of spread there, many options. Entertaining times for model watching. No time for shutting the blinds

The west pacific TC has been trending to recurving like the gfs had on that previous run. Euro losing on that. There is actually a real feature there now, 92W. It's being picked up by ensembles more and more as well. I think this is giving the boost to the EPO we've been seeing recently. Could help explain why the EPO ridge started trending, and perhaps lend some merit to that.

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at.

I think the potential is good this year. The million dollar question is does it pay off or not. We're certainly in a better position than where we could have been without any blocking at all.

It's a fair point. There's a reason for that too though right now. The blocking has the TPV pinned by the sea of Okhotsk. So the real cold is pinned in siberia with it. However, the location where it's pinned is also detrimental to it with blocking over the top and near the Urals. The hope for me is that we can nuke it. Which is actually a realistic possibility this year. That would unravel that thing and spread the cold more willingly around the mid latitude belt. Plus, keep the blocking going in the arctic. The Pacific will be variable this season in my eyes. So I'm hopeful for a long lasting -AO this season to work with the times when there are Pacific improvements. That's where my head is at this season. It sure will be interesting to see how it goes.

Just to further complicate matters. Don't know if anyone had noticed or not. Some models, like the gfs here, have been recurving this TC out in the far west pacific in 5-7 days. Absorbing it into the Pacific jet. Is that thing real, or not? Gfs says yes. Euro says no. There is nothing there currently.

Seems to me like just a lot of spread towards the end. Except for a miserable vortex again

Day 9 on today's edition

There's a lot going on. It's very complicated for modeling to figure everything out right now. I'm having a blast watching everything though lol.

Keep it coming....

Yup. But hey it's only December 5th. Who's to say there is no snow near the holidays

Yes. And I'm rooting for the SSW hard this year. Well, we've had some precursors too actually so it is very interesting. But why? Because it would be accompanied by blocking, already set up at 500mb. Whenever you get to do that, you don't need to wait for effects. Like we're used to seeing. The effect from this would be immediate. It's a very rare opportunity, and we're still very much in the hunt.

When I see this loop. I see a PV in severe distress. The absolute last thing that it ever wants to do is have itself shoved out to the Aleutians like that. If we want that thing to come unraveled. That would help the cause. A lot. Just look at that poor thing, that's a miserable life for the vortex.

Hey man, I have the keys to the bus. I'm thinking of warming it up.

A side note. If you take the TPV and swing it out to more of an Aleutian low like this. The SPV has a strong problem.