EasternLI

HRRR swings that squall line through later.

Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there.

The look on the EPS definitely caught my eye this morning. These sorts of things have often come with the legitimate threats this year. So maybe we can cook up something around that time. Could be interesting.

On the ensembles. Right around the beginning of March, another one of those +PNA spikes is coming into focus. That'll be something to keep an eye on again by default.

Seeing some pockets of 80mph stuff on velocity scan. Impressive.

57F over here. Feels great

49F this morning already. Feels great out . I'm enjoying it while we have it.

Looking forward to these temps for tomorrow . Not really looking forward to the wind threat tomorrow night though .

It's been really cool to follow this particular season. So we have that North Pacific Ridge courtesy mostly of the la Niña I'm assuming. Maybe some kind of QBO influence with that feature as well (speculation). With the tropical forcing and wave breaking events seemingly shifting that main feature around occasionally. Perhaps some sort of PV influence now at this point too with the coupling to the troposphere. It's always amazing to me, to think about how everything is interconnected and how they all work together to drive the weather patterns. Curious to see how this plays out. With interest in this MJO event remaining as it pertains to ENSO next season as well. But that's for further into March.

Yeah, great post. I was looking at that briefly this morning. You can sort of see the wave break happening if you loop the ensemble runs. That's one way to shake things up. Interesting too that this similar process initiated the feedback loop with the MJO earlier this season I think. So it'll be interesting to see how this all works together this time. It's been fascinating watching the progression of everything. Intriguing season from a pattern perspective.

Yeah, looking similar.

What? Did snowman hack your account? But I hear you. I enjoy winter. But I also enjoy summer. Spring is really the only season I dislike here.

Yeah, agreed. Was thinking the +AO was playing some role with that. And there you have it. Makes sense conceptually, to me.

Will need to keep an eye on the possibility that ridging tries to push into NW Canada like this. That would try to squash the SE ridge somewhat. Here's the 00z eps.

Wound up with right around 3" here. So that's ~30" for the season. Which is right around average seasonal snowfall.

60F over here and sunny. Feeling good

47F here already. Looking forward to another great day.

Great movie. Haven't seen it in forever. I want to watch it again now

55F here. Outstanding weather today.

Warm.

Agreed totally. That's the most interesting facet to watch for with this particular MJO passage. With the potential WWB possibly initiating another downwelling Kelvin wave as well. Curious to see how this plays out. I'll certainly be watching this one with interest. WPAC SSTs are toasty.

I didn't say one word about snow or cold. You're making a lot of assumptions here about that post. And I realized that immediately, hence the snarky response. We're talking about the MJO. That doesn't automatically mean we're looking for snow or cold. I've been very objective on analysis of the MJO all season long. So I don't appreciate being lumped into some "snow parade". Sorry to rain on your strawman argument.

The point of what? Not sure what your point is.

Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play.