EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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12z eps end of the run
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I'm starting to think the vortex may be lucky to make it through December... If we do really travel down that path.
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I actually like the look this year better, should it continue to stay similar. With that sea of Okhotsk low staying in much closer proximity to Alaska instead of further west like 2010 did. Keeping it more like we're seeing currently, would increase the chance of strat shenanigans at some point. More so than the other look, as nice as it is. That would be for longer term prospects, of course. Fingers crossed.
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The cool thing is, as it looks currently. The MJO is gearing up for a potential favorable run beyond all of this. Which means there's more potential for damage to the vortex in it's future. Beyond this stuff I'm showing now.
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Now, I may be viewing matters through a different lens than others at this current moment in time. Models are seeing this anomalous blocking all the way up to 10mb. It's a thorn in the side of the vortex. So I say we crank up a record breaking block. Then go from there.
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The runs that whiffed on that sorta messed up everything. But I haven't seen that anymore since then.
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This EPO ridge must link with that NAO ridge to shove the trough east like it is doing. That looks like a critical action on some runs I've seen. If this west coast trough at this timeframe is the concern. But that's looking better and better as we get closer anyway thus far. And it's inside day 10 now.
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Oh I meant just start looking at things around then. Not looking for anything to start then lol
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Well I'm not looking for snow quite yet. Let's get a good foundation set first. Maybe after the 10th or so?
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Everywhere is cold after the 8th verbatim.
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Ends here
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That's a strong -NAO!!
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That's a 4+ standard deviation Greenland ridge after day 10 on an ensemble mean. That's super impressive. Wow
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From what I've read, you really want to see a cold shot in the 2nd half of November. That's seems to be an important piece of the puzzle. What's interesting about that is, we've done that as well this year with the record -EPO episode.
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Winter is coming.
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We're in about as good of shape as was humanly possible for this December currently IMO. As per ensembles (EPS+GEFS). Steady as she goes. Tropical convection layout starting to look more favorable again towards the end of these runs too now. I'm on the hunt for heavy polar vortex damage too. Resulting in a protracted period of -AO. That's not off the table yet either. Not sure what else one would like to see at the end of any November. This year is interesting and it'll be fun to see what happens.
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Little PNA spike emerging on this 6z GEFS. With -NAO in place. It's subtle, but it's there on this panel. Watch that. This is just an insane looking panel tbh.
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No, that's fantastic news if that plays out. Because it could have very easily just been stuck in phase 3 this year with the setup. Like qbow and La Nina likes to do. Getting into the Pacific is always tremendously better. Phase 3 is a killer on many levels.
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Some entertaining runs in the arctic on the 12z gfs + gefs today again. Sweet. Keep them coming.
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The NAO is important to see because without it this winter would be shot. I'd have a whole team of punters lol
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Didn't quite get there all the way. But left behind this pattern. Which is still favorable for further damage to it anyway. That was an entertaining run. No idea beyond day 10 anymore if that's a possibility now.
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Nah, it is what it is can't get mad at it. Let's just gin up an old fashioned DC to Boston burial. Like the old days
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18z Gefs are trying to do it too now.
