EasternLI

It was a possibility back in late December when I was looking at it more. TBH I haven't really checked on that since I mentioned it. Got sidetracked following the snow threats lol. There was a bunch of warm water (30C+) collecting east of 150E. It looks like most of that was downwelled to the subsurface instead. I think Ray has a great handle on this season and has done a tremendous job with his efforts this year. He's really nailed quite a lot of aspects about this season. I think we did see a very clean phase 8 pass recently. But it was also quite short lived like was mentioned. However we couldn't even get that to happen in recent years. So perhaps we're turning a corner, slowly.

Always is. I hate how uncertainty always needs to be mentioned tbh. That should be a baseline given to anyone and everyone following weather. There are never certainties. As much as we would like there to be. There are only probabilities. What makes this one more interesting than usual is the -AO already in place prior to it happening this time. That leaves the door open for it to quickly couple and eliminate the typical lag time. I'm getting pretty confident the split is going to happen. Ensembles are getting increasingly on board. Plus we've already had the precursor pattern for it. Not to mention that the timing shown on guidance is in line with when you would expect to see one after the precursor pattern happens.

No doubt. There's never really been anything ever thats looked free of problems has there? Opportunity is all we can ask for. I like ~7th though

Groundhog is currently frozen. 6 more weeks of winter. Next legit threat. Big +PNA spike leading into it.

GEFS has been starting to come around to this idea recently too. Euro OP has looked like this for a couple of runs now also.

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday.

Man, IDK. The more I look things over, the more I get the feeling winter is far from done with us and could be very far. Guidance is indicating a big time -AO developing at 500mb moving forward. My guess is some MJO influence in doing that. Meanwhile, here comes some real potential of a major strat PV disruption with the AO already negative. We're accustomed to a lag time of several weeks for the strat to affect the AO if at all. However, under these particular circumstances there is a possibility of basically zero lag time to see effects. If you split the vortex with an already -AO you could instead see it quickly coupling all the way through the column. Effectively prolonging and amplifying the already -AO in place, starting almost immediately. Its a possibility to do something like that this year...

Today's looks a little more bullish than yesterdays.

It's quite interesting to me, this strat split potential. Guidance is indicating this would occur during a time where the AO is already negative. I recall reading at one time that if that happens, there may not be any lag time associated. Instead, they can couple quickly through the column and you just get it amplified and prolonged instead. Latest weeklies from today were more bullish.

We just had a really nice clean phase 8 look IMHO. Here's some bullet points supporting that thought from the CPC MJO update yesterday. Western hemisphere is phase 8. I think this potential will respond in kind given a little lag time. Which lands squarely on this period. There's research that supports phase 8 being the most favorable for Northeast US snow events. Beyond all of this, there is potential of a strat PV split. It's on some of the guidance. Probably at least partially due to the MJO transit through the Pacific. We just had a precursor pattern for that as well, which brought Sunday's event. So will just need to monitor developments. • Following a long-lasting, incoherent MJO, the RMM based index increased in amplitude, emerging from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific) and becoming highly amplified. • Once eastward propagation began, the signal quickly moved into the Western Hemisphere. • The signal had been showing propagation in the upper-level VP anomalies before it was seen in the RMM index and may be “catching up”.

This is the best EPS run of today. Better than 00z 6z 12z.

Yeah, this works for now.

Zero complaints on the 6z GEFS. Inching closer.

00z EPS spread is giving me the classic Hatteras to BM vibes.

I like the orientation. It's ever so slightly tilted in a way that would want to force neg tilt along the east coast naturally.

Just keep the looks like this showing up, for now..

Nice! Rjay threads are usually good luck too lol

24" here on the season at this point which is pretty damn good for here. With future prospects too, this is a fun winter we have going on.