Tyler Penland

*looks at timestamp* Ah another day 10 map. I'll believe it when I see it. I've already had more than I had expected to get out of this 2nd straight Nina winter. I guess if you set your bar low enough you're good with anything.

Yep little improvements one at a time. I'm good to get another 3-4" IMBY. If I can't get a foot all at once I'll gladly take it in 2 doses 4 days apart. Also I'm off Friday so a great day to hit the trails. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

New NAM is a step up for the Thursday night system. Trend has been towards more moisture. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

8" in 3.5 hours (7" in 2.5hrs) and tapering off. Storm for the record books IMBY rate-wise. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

We're supposed to be opening the outlet mall at 12. Hopefully they get the roads improved by then. No clue why they didn't just punt instead of opening for 6 hours. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

7" so far and still dumping. Another hour and we'll hit double digits. Worth noting almost no wind here at the house so it's not blowing around any. We're tucked into a holler and it's been almost dead calm the whole time. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

THUNDER!!!! Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

First measurement at 3.5". Had a dusting at 6AM so roughly 3" in the last hour. Amazing. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Absolutely ripping now and just dropped below freezing. Everything covered. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

New MD covers the NW corner of the state. Another MD just a hundred miles east for a severe watch possibility. Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southwest through northern Virginia and central Maryland Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 031013Z - 031415Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around 1-2 inches per hour and occasionally greater appear increasingly possible along and to the east of the Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains, into the Greater Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, through 7-10 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Precipitation rates have increased along a frontal zone north through north-northeast of a deepening surface cyclone center across the South Carolina Piedmont. Although temperatures near the surface and in layers aloft are generally still warm to the east of the Appalachians, across much of the southern Mid Atlantic, a combination of strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and gradual low-level cold advection on northerly surface flow is likely to contribute to profiles increasingly conducive to snow. Surface temperatures are already approaching freezing across much of the Greater Baltimore and Washington D.C. metro areas into the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, where strengthening mid-level frontogenetic forcing for ascent appears likely to become focused, beneath an intensifying divergent flow field between coupled upper jets. Forecast soundings suggest that lift will become increasingly maximized within the dendritic growth layer through 12-15Z, in the presence of seasonably high moisture content (including precipitable water on the order of .75-1.0 inches) supportive of 1-2 inch per hour snow rates, and perhaps occasionally heavier.

Welcome to our tiny town! Down to 34 with cars starting to turn white. Flakes IMBY still kinda slushy but we're usually last to change locally tucked up in this warm-air-holding valley.

Right on time per our good friend the HRRR. Still waiting a bit south of you but webcam shows a changeover in Banner Elk. Can't tell about Boone for sure.

Temperature finally falling off a cliff here. Down from 41.7 to 36.8 since 4AM. Just a matter of time now.

First potential thundersnow in Alabama. Could be thundersleet. Tuscaloosa County right near the transition line.

Avery, Watauga and Ashe look to do pretty well this time. Here's hoping. [emoji573] Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Also going to be a VERY sharp gradient in spots. From very little or nothing to 6-10" over a 15-20 mile span or less. Reminds me a LOT of Christmas Eve 2020 Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Nope but had some good undulating asperatus here in Blowing Rock. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

I'll be impressed if they have enough service to stream from up there. Gonna be crazy for sure. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Um. OK then. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Maybe worth noting (or not it is the HRRR), but the HRRR is a really good hit for much of the entire state. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Worth watching that Thursday night threat too. Temps look much better just need the moisture. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

RGEM/RDPS not buying the no moisture solution on the NAM either.

0z NAM has my attention. Big shift south with the LP. Would be excellent for most of NC.

Need that secondary LP to be just a tick farther south for us in the NW mountains.

I'll have whatever the 12z GFS is having. That secondary low development could be good for us if it happens. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk