Bevo

Boy if there was ever a time the Euro homers need it to be right…

Lyman ended with 7" (sleet in between). This was the longest duration of falling frozen precip I can remember. Performed really well imby.

I'm really rooting for you CNC and ENC folk. Izzy was a major hit here, so I'm all good and would be juiced to see this be an eastern Carolinas thing.

Haha I've grown to old to not tell the truth. Never was one for bollocks and nonsense

I certainly smell a lot of salt

OMG there are no words to describe how effing terrible the 18Z runs are for this high strung sub forum

It’s likely because a significant part of the posting population is not in the 5-6” snow/sleet zone (CNC/ENC) and will probably just have some zr if not plain cold rain and just can’t even anymore. I get it.

Over in the corner hiding from all the CNC and ENC posters. In reality though, that is definitely overdone on the snow end.

Yeah - there's just no denying that WAA, especially as we get closer. Lyman is tucked strangely between the lee and where the snow line typically transitions. I'll still get the ice but for some reason just not quite as much as my surrounding areas. We're talking 1 mile of separation between mostly snow and mostly ice in most cases.

The light, lavender-ish band on that map (3"-6" Snow/Sleet) could stand to come south to where it would meet the top of the "M" in my opinion, but other than that it looks pretty damn solid. I always have to remember that most of this board doesn't live in the Frozone like me. Lyman is in the Narnia of SE winterland (NW SC). We tend to benefit more than a lot of people with these storms. This helps me understand the overwhelming number of frustrated posts for literally every winter storm thread. I get it - it makes sense.

That group also meets weekly at the community center if you know what I mean

Meh - that's status quo for most of us. We track. We watch. Then we question why we were ever interested in such a hobby. Repeat. It's rare to have an event that is actually worthy of such a time suck. Yet we always come back.

Holy s*** the afternoon/evenings on this forum never let you down lol Hyperbole and the 18Z - what a pair of great forecasting tools, eh?

There's no way they're accounting for sleet/ZR, right?

I don't understand why humanity as a whole doesn't just skip the 18Z run of anything - the NAM especially. It's called the Never Again, Man, because I swore I would never let it "pole" me again after so many burns.

GFS sure seems like it wants to go that route.

Locusts. https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/16/world/brood-x-cicada-2021-scn/index.html

Again this is only anecdotal, but I will be curious to see if the history and data that I've logged with system set-ups similar to this remain consistent. The circled areas for my state are where I'm most interested to see if storm impact is higher. This is only based on my own data from the last 10 years (full disclosure, 4/27/2011 is one of my personal analogs that is included - which I am fully aware is extreme and not the same). I'm certainly no scientist.

This is only anecdotal, but one thing I've learned over the last decade is that I need to pay attention to even the "marginal" hatches. I've actually logged the 5 most destructive thunderstorms that have hit my location - these are storms that have damaged or impacted my property in some way (severe/moderate i.e trees down, power line on the ground, home damage etc.). 4 of those storms occured under "marginal" threat hatches for my area, 2 of which accompanied cells that had tornado warning criteria at some point (either before, during or after impacting my property). I've learned to keep an eye on anything within those risk hatches regardless of risk percentages. I will certainly be watching this closely.

The sad part is you don't even have to @ anyone - they know who they are...

No offense, but all 3 times I've seen snow IMBY - just this year - were preceeded by non-snow forecasts. I don't think any of you know what is going on to be honest.

Alta is great but don't sleep on Solitude and Brighton. You could spend a week skiing Solitude and not hit the entire mountain.

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that some of us have been stuck inside with our 3 kids from ages 10-17 for the last year. Doing that without power in very cold temps will be 100% miserable instead of only 85% miserable...